Mets Series Preview: Mets return home for series with Nationals

No, you’re not experiencing déjà vu, the Mets and Nationals just played a series last week. And like last week, the teams are close together in the standings and had similar four-game series, although the Mets did slightly better against the Pirates than the Nats did against the Cardinals.

The Mets split a four-game series with the Pirates and looked absolutely terrible in both of their losses, losing the series opener and finale by scores of 14-2 and 8-2, respectively. In the first game, rookie sensation Paul Skenes pitched well, but not great, but it was enough to silence the Mets hitters, but the bullpen couldn’t get out of its own way, scoring ten runs under his watch.

In Monday’s disaster, the blame lay in both strategy and execution. After Christian Scott was eliminated with two outs in the sixth inning, Eric Orze had a promising and incredibly disappointing MLB debut, and then Adrian Houser was used in an unwise manner, leading to another embarrassing loss.

The two games in between were a nice comeback on Sunday and a relatively easy win on Saturday, but neither win was exactly what you want to see against a weak team with a poor offense. Sean Manaea got off to a good start, but the Mets couldn’t do anything against Luis Ortiz, and the game was almost blown by the only truly reliable reliever in their bullpen – Edwin Díaz – and only saved because Fransisco Lindor is an All-Star in our hearts, if not, for some stupid reason, not in reality. And Saturday saw an inefficient start by David Peterson, who needed José Buttó out of the bullpen, an unfamiliar position for the right-hander.

The Nationals also had a four-game series against a National League Central team and faced the Cardinals four times at home. Aside from Saturday’s affair, when the Nationals offense exploded for 14 runs, the team seemed outmatched by the Red Birds. Even in their win, MacKenzie Gore pitched just three and a third innings and allowed five runs.

After his debut in the Mets’ series, Nats top talent James Wood has mastered his first week in the Major League quite well: Among his eight hits in 35 batting appearances, he hit one home run, managed six walks and stole one base.

Tuesday, July 9: José Quintana vs. Jake Irvin at 7:10 p.m. EDT on SNY

Quintana (2024): 89.2 IP, 66 K, 32 BB, 13 HR, 4.22 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 108 ERA-

Quintana looked good in his last start, facing Jake Irvin (checks notes). He went seven scoreless innings in a meaningless early game on Independence Day. After a couple of starts where he allowed more strikeouts than walks, Quintana only struck out one strikeout and three walks, but the name of the game is preventing runs, and Quintana had one of his better starts by that metric. In the last month, Quintana has really stabilized, limiting short, high-pitch starts to two of the last five, which is admittedly a low bar.

Quintana is a potential trade piece for the Mets, especially with the return of Kodai Senga, so it’s up to everyone to make sure Quintana looks good in his next two starts.

Irvine (2024): 106.0 IP, 94 K, 24 BB, 10 HR, 2.80 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 68 ERA-

Remember two paragraphs ago how I extolled the virtues of Quintana’s start against Irvin on Thursday? Well, Irvin was much better: eight innings, eight strikeouts, one hit, one walk. Overall, Irvin has been very good this season, and while he hasn’t gone as far as the Nats would have liked, the results have been there. In the last month, Irvin has allowed more than one run only once and has 30 strikeouts against ten walks.

Wednesday, July 10: Luis Severino vs. Patrick Corbin at 7:10 p.m. EDT on SNY

Severino-Sergio (2024): 103.1 IP, 77 K, 34 BB, 12 HR, 3.83 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 99 ERA-

If the Mets don’t let Severino get in the game too long, he’ll be a pleasant surprise after his somewhat controversial signing. Against the Pirates, Severino allowed three home runs but otherwise limited the damage until he went pumpkin early in the seventh inning. Severino’s home run rate has actually been better than his career averages this year, but the Pirates were very accurate on Friday night.

Corbin (2024): 100.0 IP, 68 K, 35 BB, 14 HR, 5.49 ERA, 4.74 FIP, 134 ERA-

After two straight good seasons in 2018 and 2019, Patrick Corbin has been one of the least effective starters in baseball. So far this season, he has a 73 ERA+ and a 1-8 record. While almost everyone knows a pitcher’s wins and losses don’t mean much, Corbin hasn’t had a win since 2019, nor has an ERA under six since the Covid-shortened 2020 season. His last month hasn’t been bad, but you know what you’re getting with Corbin, and that’s not very good.

Thursday, July 11: David Peterson vs. MacKenzie Gore at 1:10 p.m. EDT on SNY

Peterson (2024): 37.2 IP, 27 K, 16 BB, 4 HR, 3.58 ERA, 4.71 FIP, 92 ERA-

The Mets have won Peterson’s last five games, which frankly has more to do with their offense than Peterson’s performance. That’s not to say Peterson has been bad, but he hasn’t excelled in any game. Peterson is someone whose stats always look good, but watching him pitch can be excruciating. He’s not quite Steve Trachsel, but not far off.

Gore-2024: 94.0 IP, 112 K, 34 BB, 7 HR, 3.83 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 94 ERA-

Gore’s last start against the Mets seems like an oasis in his June desert. Against the Mets, he struck out five and two thirds, allowing just one earned run and striking out five with one hit and one walk. But against the Cardinals, he allowed five earned runs in three and one thirds while allowing five walks. In the game before his Mets showdown, when he faced the Padres, he also allowed five earned runs.