Fantasy Football ADP Value Picks in Each Round (2024)

With best-ball contests being released in large numbers, it may be worth taking a step further and considering where the best fantasy football draft values ​​are in each round. Which players do we want to aggressively pursue before the average draft position (ADP) in fantasy football shifts as draft rooms get more crowded in the summer? Which players have we missed? These are the best fantasy football values ​​in each round based on the current underdog ADP when drafts begin in July.

Fantasy Football – Value Picks Round by Round

Round 1 – Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

Despite playing with awful quarterbacks and a terrible offensive line, and fresh off an ACL injury, Breece Hall led all running backs with 93 targets and was second with 74 passes caught. However, due to the ineptitude of the Jets offense, Hall only had eight touchdowns, ranking 17th at the position. Even with an aging Aaron Rodgers, things should improve this year. Hall has RB1 potential in his outlook.

Round 2 – Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)

For some reason, Deebo Samuel is being drafted behind Brandon Aiyuk, even though Aiyuk only finished in the top 20 weekly four times in 2023, rushed for under 80 yards eight times, scored no touchdowns in 60% of his games, and finished as a WR30 or worse six times. Samuel, on the other hand, finished in the top 20 eight times, tied Aiyuk with eight games under 80 yards, and scored no touchdowns in only 43% of his games. Samuel is more productive, more versatile, and wins in a way that is critical to the Niners’ game system.

Round 3 – DK Metcalf (WR – SEA)

The Seahawks brought in their new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb from Washington and are in the process of building them into one of the most exciting offenses in college football. Grubb reportedly told Geno Smith he sees this offense as a drop-back passer and they would lean heavily on play-action, which would give DK Metcalf more time to get free up front and open up the field more. Metcalf has rushed for over 1,000 yards in three of the last four seasons and caught over 100 passes in each of his five years in the NFL. Metcalf has the potential to win a week if this Seahawks offense can get back on track.

Round 4 – Christian Kirk (WR – JAX)

He may not be flashy or overly fancy, but Christian Kirk is steady and reliable in an area of ​​the draft where question marks loom. Kirk has had 218 targets over the past two years, resulting in eight top-15 finishes per week, and averaged a career-high 2.07 yards per route run in 2023. The additions of Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis were made to spread the field out further, which in turn will make Kirk’s life easier as he works closer to the line of scrimmage and makes catches with a higher probability.

Round 5 – Mark Andrews (WR – TE)

The biggest argument against Mark Andrews seems to be that he’s 28 years old, making him six years younger than perhaps the best fantasy tight end we’ve ever seen, Travis Kelce, who has dominated for the past five years. The emergence of Isaiah Likely is another strike against Andrews, but Todd Monken has had success with 2-TE systems before and it’s not like the Ravens replaced Odell Beckham Jr., who had the second-most team targets in 2023. In best ball, we look for excellence and Andrews still possesses it.

Round 6 – DeAndre Hopkins (WR – TEN)

We know the Titans believe in Will Levis enough to draft him for his second year, and while we know he doesn’t have a particularly good success rate, the Titans have done everything they can to surround him with more talent for 2024. Hopkins is currently available 12 spots after Calvin Ridley, even though Hopkins surpasses Ridley in yards per route run, yards per reception, receiving EPA, yards per play, and points per touch in 2024. Going with the elite receiver who already has a good relationship with his quarterback seems like a smart move to me.

Round 7 – Kyler Murray (QB – ARI)

Kyler Murray returned from his ACL injury and surprised people with his running production, averaging 30.5 yards per game, sixth-most among quarterbacks and more than Josh Allen. With a second offseason in this offense and more time after his ACL injury, Murray is a clear comeback candidate, especially since he is now surrounded by Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. It’s not unreasonable to think Murray can climb back into the top five fantasy quarterbacks – a nice return at his QB7 ADP.

Round 8 – Jonathon Brooks (RB – CAR)

When we draft rookies at best ball, we hope they develop into reliable options by the end of the season. We can build around them for the early part of the year by taking veterans who, as they lose playing time, will be replaced in our lineup by the emerging rookies. Jonathon Brooks could emerge much sooner, as he only has Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard for competition. Either way, we should see the explosive runner with outstanding vision we saw at Texas by the end of the season when it counts most.

Round 9 – Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS)

The Commanders have hopefully found their franchise quarterback after years of mediocrity at the position. Jayden Daniels’ exciting style can be the perfect tonic. Daniels threw for 3,811 yards and 40 touchdowns in his final season at LSU, while also rushing for 1,250 yards and 10 touchdowns. That averaged a massive 11.25 rushing attempts per game.

In 2022 and 2023 combined, there were 44 instances of a quarterback scoring over 30.0 points during the fantasy season. Of those 44 instances, 27 (61%) were by a quarterback with five or more attempts, and 22 of those performances were by a quarterback with 39 yards or more. Daniels does have a downside, but in best ball, where we’re aiming for nuclear results, his are as strong as anyone’s.

Round 10 – Brandin Cooks (WR – DAL)

2023 was the end of two halves for the Cowboys. They disappointed before their Week 8 bye, but from Weeks 9 to 17, Dak Prescott was the QB2 with 22.9 points per game, 0.1 behind QB1 Josh Allen. Since then, the Cowboys have reduced their running back position to a duo of Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott.

While the running game seems to be declining, or at least not improving, the passing game should be at least as good as last year, with CeeDee Lamb emerging as one of the league’s true superstars. Aside from Lamb, the wide receiver room is empty, as hopes rest on Jalen Tolbert. Cooks had eight touchdowns last year and is one of the more reliable wide receivers in an area where the position is drying up very quickly.

Round 11 – Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)

Other than Tuanon, there aren’t many people who are keen to draft Tua Tagovailoa. Even though he’s paired with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, it makes sense to be open to it. Tagovailoa was the QB5 in total points until Week 9, then his play dropped off a bit as the Dolphins faced stronger opponents. It’s legitimate to be concerned about that, but there are reasons for optimism. Raheem Mostert probably won’t score 20 rushing touchdowns again in 2023 after his pure run, and the defense seems headed for regression, which may help push the offense into more pass-heavy scripts. Additionally, a healthy Waddle will go a long way toward making Tagovailoa more successful.

Round 12 – Kendre Miller (RB – NO)

2023 was by far the rookie year Kendre Miller might have dreamed of, as he averaged 3.0 yards per carry in the seven games he played. His first experience in the NFL was marred by offseason injuries. Miller had rushed for over 1,400 yards and scored 17 touchdowns in his final year at TCU before moving on to the NFL. It would be wrong of us to write all that off after one year, especially when the Saints seem lukewarm at best toward Alvin Kamara, who is showing signs of regression and who Jamaal Williams overlooked last year. With a new and more creative offensive coordinator, the Saints could surprise this year.

Round 13 – Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR)

The Rams’ success in 2023 was led by Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, but at the center was Matthew Stafford, who rolled back the years and played at near MVP levels at times. Over the last four years, Stafford has thrown for fewer than 3,900 yards only in 2022, when he missed seven games due to injury and the Rams were generally inept. Since it’s easy to stack Nacua and Cooper Kupp, it makes too much sense to give Stafford some consideration in three quarterback builds.

Round 14 – Hunter Henry (TE – NE)

While everyone is scrambling to decipher the Patriots wide receiver roster and decide who, if anyone, should be drafted, Hunter Henry is sitting quietly in the 14th round as a potential value. Henry had 4.4 targets per game in a miserable version of this offense with Mac Jones at quarterback, with the always reliable Jacoby Brissett and the electrifying Drake Maye, this offense can take a step forward. They certainly paid Henry like a player they expect to be a key part of this offense.

Round 15 – Troy Franklin (WR – DEN)

Troy Franklin was a promising player who came out of a smaller school than many of the top wide receivers in this draft, and there were many question marks about his yardage coming out of college. Still, Franklin will have an immediate rapport with Bo Nix, who Franklin followed to the Broncos.

Everything the Broncos have released suggests they valued him highly as a player. If Franklin can come anywhere close to the 1,383 yards and 14 touchdowns he had at Oregon in 2023, he’ll be one of the bargains of the draft season. At that price, we can even live with him having just two big slump weeks.

Round 16 – Demarcus Robinson (WR – LAR)

Before Week 11, Demarcus Robinson played only 5% of the snaps for the Rams as they allows Tutu Atwell to make the role his. When Robinson earned his chance starting in Week 12, he averaged 80.7% of the snaps. That’s in part because the Rams play 3-WR sets at one of the highest rates in the league. Robinson had 13+ PPR points in all six of those games. With no notable additions at wide receiver, it’s time to go back to Robinson in 2024.

Round 17 – Daniel Jones (QB – NYG)

The spot is heating up for Daniel Jones, even though his contract is less than 15 months old. Overcoming an ACL injury is far from ideal for a player who is constantly injured. However, with the signing of Malik Nabers, Jones has his best pass catcher since Odell Beckham left the Giants many years ago. The last time Jones was healthy in 2022, he averaged 7.5 rushing attempts per game, which is too valuable to be left completely undrafted.

Round 18 – Derek Carr (QB – NO)

Nobody wants to draft Derek Carr and nobody likes drafting Derek Carr, but it’s become a necessary evil. Carr finished the season as QB18 in total points with five top-12 finishes per week. That’s something we can’t look down on as we build a roster to cover injuries and off weeks. Add in a new, more entertaining offensive scheme and Carr should be able to provide value as QB26.

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