Russia-Ukraine war: Why China is conducting military exercises in Belarus right on the border between NATO and the EU

July 9, 2024

The Chinese military has begun joint exercises in Belarus, which will take place over the next eleven days in Brest near the border with NATO member Poland.

The joint military exercises between two of Russia’s key allies come after Belarus became the tenth member of the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) during the 24th meeting of its Council Heads of State in Astana, Kazakhstan.

The Belarusian government said the exercises would “make it possible to lay the foundation for the further development of Belarusian-Chinese relations in the field of joint military training.”

China called it “anti-terrorism training” and said the exercises were being conducted “based on an annual plan and consensus.”

This is the first time in six years that China has sent military personnel to Belarus for such exercises. The last bilateral joint exercises were held in China. Both countries also participated in Russia’s multilateral exercise Vostok in August 2022.

Last August, China and Belarus agreed to conduct further joint military exercises following a meeting between then Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk.

Photos released by the Belarusian Ministry of Defense show troops of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army arriving in Belarus on a Chinese Y-20 strategic transport aircraft.

Brest is located less than five kilometers from the border with Poland, a member state of the EU and NATO and a key ally of Ukraine since Russia’s large-scale invasion in February 2022. Brest is also only 50 kilometers from Ukraine itself.

Martin Sebena, a lecturer at the University of Hong Kong and a specialist in China-Europe relations, said the timing and location of the exercises suggested they would be seen as a further sign of Chinese support for Russia and its allies in Europe.

He told the South China Morning Post: “The exercise will coincide with the NATO summit and will take place at the … border, where Belarus has been using the migrant flows ‘as a weapon’ for many months to put pressure on Poland – and more broadly on the EU and NATO.”

The NATO summit is scheduled to take place in Washington from July 9 to 11.

Mr Sebena said: “This adds two additional layers to the Polish perception. Firstly, the Poles have reduced rail traffic from China via the Malaszewicze hub (near Brest) because they fear it could be used to evade tariffs, while China is working hard to increase rail-based land transport from western China to Europe – with this hub basically the only place where these trains enter the EU via the EU.

“Secondly, the Polish President was recently warmly received in China, and since Poles consider this action to be directed at them, questions are arising in Poland as to how sincere the Chinese side was.”

Chinese state media reported that the country’s armed forces also took part in a military parade in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, last Wednesday to mark the 80th anniversary of Belarus’ liberation.

“I believe that thanks to the efforts of both sides, China-Belarus relations will continue to show robust growth and make significant progress,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said at the SCO summit in Astana, where he also met with the Belarusian president.

Lukashenko is one of Putin’s most loyal allies. The two have visited each other several times, even though many countries have avoided Moscow following the invasion of Ukraine. Putin’s most recent visit last month was a two-day trip to Minsk.

Mr Lukashenko appointed a new military chief during the visit, signalling continued rapprochement with Russia. Major General Pavel Muraveyka, who was appointed Belarus’ chief of general staff and first deputy defence minister, is known for publicly threatening neighbouring NATO members Poland and Lithuania.

Russia’s deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus further strengthens the strategic partnership between the two countries, which experts say will have implications for regional security and NATO relations. In 2023, Russia moved some of its tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.

“Muraveyko’s appointment is an open challenge to the West and a desire to show Minsk’s complete loyalty to Putin and readiness to maintain a strategic partnership with Russia,” independent Belarusian analyst Valer Karbalevich told the Associated Press last month.

“The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus leaves Lukashenko with no strategic choice, makes him a hostage of the Kremlin and ties Minsk firmly to Moscow’s policies,” said Karbalevich.

In May, Putin visited China for the second time in just six months, reflecting the two countries’ growing rapprochement amid increasing Western scrutiny and sanctions.

“Today, China-Russia relations are hard-earned, and both sides must nurture and promote them,” Xi Jinping told Putin at a meeting of heads of state in Beijing. “China is willing to … jointly promote the development and renewal of our respective countries and jointly ensure fairness and justice in the world.”

There are also growing concerns that China is considering providing military support to Russia, which US officials have warned could have serious consequences.

Additional reporting by agencies