The fate of the ceasefire depends on Israel’s Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar

TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — The fate of the proposed ceasefire agreement because Gaza depends in many ways on two men: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar.

Every leader faces important political and personal pressures that could influence their decision-making. And neither appears to be in a hurry to make concessions to end the devastating eight-month war and free the hostages taken by Hamas in its October 7 attack.

Hamas has accepted the plan in its broad outlines but demanded “changes.” Netanyahu has publicly questioned some aspects of the plan, although the US has portrayed it as an Israeli plan.

Among the major sticking points is how to move from an initial temporary ceasefire in the first phase of the agreement to a permanent ceasefire that includes an end to fighting and the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

Here is a look at the possible motivations of the two leaders:

Netanyahu wants to “buy time”

Throughout the war, the long-serving Israeli leader was criticized for political considerations stand in the way of his decision-making.

His government is backed by two ultranationalist parties that oppose ceasefire agreements, preferring instead sustained military pressure to defeat Hamas and free the hostages. They also talk of “encouraging” Palestinians to leave the country and rebuilding Israeli settlements that were cleared when Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005 after a 38-year occupation.

Netanyahu himself has taken a hard line on the ceasefire, saying he will not end the war until Hamas’ military and government capabilities are destroyed.

But with his hardline partners vowing to topple the government if a ceasefire is reached, Netanyahu has been pushed even further into a corner. His reliance on them to stay in power has only increased recently after a centrist member of his war cabinet, former military chief Benny Gantz, quit because of frustration with Netanyahu’s handling of the conflict.

Netanyahu has had to balance internal pressure with the demands of the Biden administration, which supports the latest ceasefire proposal, as well as the demands of hostage families, who believe only a deal can free their loved ones. Tens of thousands of Israelis have taken part in mass protests in support of the hostage families.

Netanyahu seems to be on the side of the his right-wing extremist government partners For now, he is aware that they are key to his immediate political survival, although he says he has the country’s welfare at heart.

Her departure from the government could lead to new elections, which in turn would allow a vote that could end his rule and likely launch investigations into the October 7 misdeeds.

Netanyahu is also on trial for corruption. These trials have continued throughout the war but have faded from public consciousness. A ceasefire agreement could refocus attention on the allegations that have been following the Israeli president for years and which he vehemently denies.

Netanyahu’s political fortunes seem to have improved over the course of the war. After Hamas’ surprise attack on southern Israel, his public support dropped dramatically. But over time it has recovered. Even though he will still find re-election difficult, he is not a written-off candidate.

“He is waging war as he wants, which is very slowly. He is buying time,” says Gideon Rahat, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank, and chairman of the political science department at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

Rahat said Netanyahu was also interested in continuing the war in the hope that former US President Donald Trump would return to office, potentially giving Israel more room to maneuver in the fight against Hamas.

“I don’t see any ceasefire that looks anything like what he envisions,” Rahat said. “But he is not the only one who controls reality.”

Sinwar’s mission is to survive

Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to sign a contract either.

The militant group’s exiled leadership is divided over how to approach a ceasefire agreement, but Sinwar – the mastermind of the October 7 attacks – holds particular weight in the matter.

As a Hamas member who spent decades in Israeli prisons, he has an incentive to continue the war.

On a personal level, his life may be at stake. Israel has vowed to kill him in response to the October attack, and Sinwar is believed to be hiding deep in Gaza’s underground tunnels, surrounded by Israeli hostages.

If a ceasefire were to occur, Sinwar would be taking a great risk with his public appearances.

“I think he understands that he is something of a dead man. But the question is how long he can hold out,” says Khaled el-Gindy, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute think tank in Washington.

But Sinwar is motivated by more than just his own fate. The radical ideology of HamasSinwar seeks the destruction of Israel and has achieved political success by watching the war damage Israel’s international reputation and bolster support for the Palestinian cause.

Israel has faced increasing international criticism for its conduct during the war – from its Western allies, from the international justice system, from protesters around the world. This has deepened Israel’s global isolation, brought accusations of genocide against the Palestinians, and prompted the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court to call for the arrest of Israeli politicians.

Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, wrote on the social platform X that Sinwar is also “banking on the ongoing global outcry over the gruesome killings of Gaza residents to force Israel to finally end the war” on his own terms.

But Sinwar himself may face difficult questions after the war ends – not only about his personal role in the October 7 atrocities, but also from the Palestinian public as it realizes the full extent of the war’s destruction and the years-long reconstruction process.

El-Gindy said Sinwar was not deterred by the high price paid by Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip in the war and viewed it as an inevitable sacrifice on the road to liberation.

From Sinwar’s point of view, continuing the fight against the powerful Israeli army, even if it is only against pockets of resistance, prevents an Israeli victory, said el-Gindy.

“Their whole mission is to survive,” he said. “If they survive, they’ve won.”

___

Associated Press writers Julia Frankel and Jack Jeffery contributed from Jerusalem.

___

Follow AP’s coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war