Series Preview No. 30: Diamondbacks vs. Braves

Valerie, a good friend of mine, will be visiting Phoenix. During this visit, she will be attending some baseball games between the Diamondbacks and the Braves. It’s been a while since she’s been this interested in baseball, so I sent her a quick preview to make the games more entertaining. That preview follows (and I hope you find it valuable):

This season, experts say the Braves are the fifth or sixth best team in baseball, while they say the Diamondbacks are pretty average. Amazingly, this season, “average” is enough for the Diamondbacks to secure a spot in the wildcard playoffs!

In April, the Braves defeated the Diamondbacks in a 3-game series.

The Braves are the favorites in this series and will win every game, but two games are still to go.

(The odds have changed for the better since I wrote my note. As of Saturday, the odds are as follows: Monday Braves 54.4%, Tuesday D-backs 54.2%, Wednesday Braves 53.9% and Tossup Thursday each team at 50.0%)

The most interesting starting pitchers are Chris Sales (Braves on Monday) and Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks on Tuesday). Pitching matchups subject to change.

Which players were best in June?

Braves batters who hit well in June are third baseman Austin RileyDesignated hitter Marcell Ozunaand midfielder Jarred Kelenic. Austin Riley’s batting performance was most sustained in July as he had a higher average exit velocity (93.3 MPH without bunts).

Three Diamondbacks to keep an eye on:

• Second Baseman Ketel Marte is hitting well in June, hitting 7 home runs. National League fans have voted him as one of two candidates to be an All-Star second baseman. A second round of voting begins June 30.
• Christian Walker is an excellent defender at first base, has the highest batting speed on the team and hit six home runs in June.
• I like to watch shortstops Geraldo Perdomo. His defense is one of the best in the major leagues. He has the slowest bat speed on the team, but he is the best player on the team at not getting any mishits. His skill sometimes leads to long (exciting) at-bats.

Addendum to my note:

• On Gabriel Moreno’s return from the IL, look for him to blow on his fingers after throwing out a runner who tried to steal second base but failed to do so.
• As you know, the Diamondbacks have to take every opportunity to win to make the playoffs! In this series, splitting the four-game series would be like a chance taken.

The pitching duels.

Monday, 6:40 p.m. (Arizona time), Yilber Diaz vs. Bryce Elder

After wondering who will be pitching for the Diamondbacks (Castellanos, Yilber Diaz, Logan Allen, or a bullpen game), there is an answer. Yilber Diaz will be making his Major League debut!

Although he will start this game, the consensus among MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, Keith Law of the Athletic, and Baseball America is that he has the best handle on his future in the bullpen.

He started four games for the AAA Reno Aces. In two home games, he allowed a total of 8 earned runs with 9 strikeouts (10.1 innings). In two road games, he allowed a total of zero earned runs with 19 strikeouts (11.2 innings). Obviously, he was more than great in AAA road games!

On Monday, Bryce Elder was called up from the minors to pitch. Chris Sale will be moved to Tuesday. In his last two games in the majors, Bryce Elder had an ERA of 8.00 (although his ERA for the season is relatively better (5.76 ERA)

In my opinion, the Diamondbacks are the favorites to win this game.

Tuesday, 6:40 p.m. (Arizona time), Zac Gallen vs. Chris Sale

Zac Gallen was great in his return from the IL on June 29 against the A’s. Three points follow.

• 1 single allowed by 19 batters.
• 7 strikeouts and 1 walk.
• The following is a pitch table:

Zac Gallen, game June 29. Data from Baseball Savant.

Zac Gallen’s second game after returning was against the Dodgers. His results weren’t as impressive (although the Dodgers batters were great), but his underlying numbers like fastball velocity and whiff percentage were good. Three points follow:

• 6 hits allowed with 19 batters.
• 4 strikeouts and 3 walks.
• The following is a pitch table:

Zac Gallen, July 4th game. Data from Baseball Savant.

Chris Sale is 35 years old and his fastball is not as good as Zac Gallen’s. In Chris Sale’s last start against the Giants, 47% of his throws were fastballs. The 95.4 MPH average velocity was about the same as Zac Gallen’s last start, but his 19.2% fastball misses were less than Gallen’s 24.0% fastball misses against the Dodgers.

In my opinion, this game is an advantage for the Diamondbacks.

Wednesday, 6:40 p.m. Arizona time, TBA, possibly Slade Cecconi vs. Charlie Morton

At first glance, Slade Cecconi’s start against the Padres looked poor, as he scored 5 earned runs in 4.2 innings. However, upon closer inspection, it turns out that he only allowed 8 hits (zero home runs) while facing 23 batters. Notably, the Padres only allowed 2 hits and zero walks in the first round. The table below shows his breakdown for the entire season:

2024 season through July 5. Data from Baseball Reference,

Since his excellent results in the first round could potentially extend to average results in the second round, I optimistically expect better results in this game.

For comparison, Charlie Morton’s last two starts were against the Pirates and the Giants.

• 8 hits (including 2 home runs) in 49 batters struck out.
• In Morton’s last two starts, his fastball velocity was 93.0 MPH and his whiff rate was 9.7%.

In my opinion, this game is a game of chance.

Thursday, 6:40 p.m. Arizona time, TBA, possibly Brandon Pfaadt vs. Max Fried

In his last start, a line drive hit Brandon Pfaadt’s ankle, but the injury was not serious. However, a good performance in this game would allay any worries.

In 6 innings against the Phillies, Max Fried allowed 5 earned runs (the same number of earned runs as Cecconi in his last game). His 11 hits allowed against 31 batters were about the same hits per batter as Cecconi.

On Saturday, FanGraphs odds showed this game tied (50%-50%), but with Schwellenbach starting for the Braves. The Braves’ starter was replaced by Max Fried. In my opinion, it remains tied.