Chris Paddack underrated (July 8)
We’re back with a five-game MLB schedule on Monday, locking in at 6:40 p.m. ET on DraftKings. With Stokastics MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers Toolswe dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
One of the keys to building a successful MLB DFS team is differentiation, so without contrarian tips like the ones below, you’ll have a hard time standing out in tournaments. Subscribe today to get access to our industry-leading resources, including our Lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading predictions for every sport.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, July 8
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
With only five games being played and weak pitching options in every price bracket, ownership is expected to be extremely concentrated among pitchers. At the time of this writing Chris Sales, Andrew Abbott And Jon Gray are projected on DraftKings for 116.4% total ownership. Although Sale will be by far the most owned player of this group, a combination of the three will be found in many lineups. That leaves a number of conflicting pitchers with Chris Paddack and is becoming the most important target arm in GPPs.
To be blunt, Paddack “looking good” here says more about the other pitchers on this list than it does about Paddack himself. His numbers are modest: 5.29 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 70 strikeouts, and 18 walks in 78.1 innings as he adjusts back to his full-time position as the Twins’ starting pitcher. That being said, Paddack’s 4.71 xERA suggests he’s a tad better than his actual results suggest. While it’s still hard to get excited about adding Paddack to the roster now, he has arguably the best matchup on the list, facing a White Sox team that ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories.
Despite his struggles this season, Paddack is currently projected as a top-two pitcher 17.1% of the time. Given that he is only expected to be on the roster in 7.8% of lineups, it’s worth considering Paddack as a differentiator in tournaments.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Unlike pitching, where three players get the most attention, the ownership of the stack is spread out. On DraftKings, every team except the Diamondbacks will be owned 6% to 17%. As of this writing, there is no stack with any real leverage in Stokastic’s Top Stack Tool. Most of the offenses on this list are either adequate or overvalued, and while the Guardians are currently in that boat, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see their ownership drop considering how much more expensive they are to stack.
Right-hander of the Tigers Keider Montero has looked good in his first few starts. He’s still criminally undervalued at $4,000 on DraftKings, and on many slates I’d just peg him at that price. That being said, he’s not expected to be anything special, and there’s always a lot to be said for coming to the Guardians this season. However, this slate is different from most five-player slates, which usually feature at least one offense well above the field. An argument can be made that any of the five teams will be the top stacks on the board tonight. The Twins, Reds, Braves, Rangers, and Guardians are all in great positions, and it’s no surprise that Cleveland is expected to be the team with the lowest ownership numbers considering Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan And Josh Naylor total $17,700 at DraftKings. Chris Sales seems to be the clear priority for most of the field and it is extremely difficult to stack the Guardians and set up Sale at the same time.
The Guardians are projected to be the top stack 12.2% of the time this lineup is played on DraftKings. Although they are only projected to be stacked in 10.0% of lineups, they are the top tournament stack on the slate.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Diamondbacks, Tigers, White Sox
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