Chris Sale + Braves Bats (July 8)

A new work week begins on Monday, with MLB action kicking off at 6:40 p.m. ET for a five-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo has decided to focus its main competitions on the four games that start at 7:10 p.m. ET. Before we get to our MLB DFS TipsAs always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to analyze today’s MLB DFS Stacksimportant pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Watch for Chris Sales And Andrew Abbott as the standout pitchers of the night. On offense, it’s those pitchers’ respective teams, with Atlanta and Cincinnati’s bats appearing in the models.

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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | 8th of July

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MLB DFS Tips: Pitchers in the Spotlight

Main List Primary Pitching Target: LHP Chris Sale (ATL at ARI)

Due to injuries, Sale was only able to pitch 151 innings between 2020 and the start of this season. The venerable veteran had his moments in those games, but it looked like health and Father Time had caught up with the pitcher, who finished no worse than sixth in Cy Young Award voting in the seven seasons between 2012 and 2018.

Sale currently leads the league with an 11-3 record, 2.26 FIP, 0.913 WHIP, and 6.68 strikeouts per walk — not too bad for a 35-year-old who began his MLB career back in 2010. The Diamondbacks rank sixth in the league with a wRC+ of 119 against lefties, but that shouldn’t stop anyone from using Sale tonight. Ketel Marte is dealing with a back injury, so his participation is questionable. The Diamondbacks’ efficiency is supported by a 16.4% strikeout rate against lefties this season, but Sale is no ordinary lefty. If Marte is out, Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel and reserve Randal Grichuk as the most worrying bats. Have fun!

Main List Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Andrew Abbott (CIN vs. COL)

It’s always fun to see LHP Andrew Abbott Pitch, as he has decent strikeout qualities, but they don’t usually manifest into actual strikeouts, as the ball is put in play more often than not. This can also lead to Abbott nibbling around the outside of the strike zone, which depletes his pitch count and leads to walks. In his last five starts, Abbott has had an insanely high 18 walks in 27 innings, despite allowing just under nine earned runs.

Preventing runs is crucial when a pitcher has Abbott’s pitch repertoire, and he excels in that regard. He has allowed three or fewer runs in 15 of his 17 (88%) starts, with four and six earned runs in the two outliers. If the Rockies were in the middle of a road trip and had gotten used to the Lowlands, Abbott would not be such a strong recommendation today.

Main list of wildcard targets: RHP Chris Paddack (MIN at CHW)

Around 80 pitches or five innings is probably a reasonable expectation for today’s workload, which makes the 28-year-old less attractive on FanDuel since he’s probably not in the running for the quality start bonus. Hopefully Paddack will bounce back with the extra rest, but it’s important to note that in his last two starts before landing on the injured list, he totaled seven innings, four walks, three strikeouts and two home runs against the K-happy Oakland Athletics. Caveat Emptor.

MLB DFS Tips: Top Stacks

Main goal of the main list: Cincinnati Reds

Jake Fraley is on the mourning list, the Edwin Rios will be recalled from the minors for the next few days. Rios is batting at Triple-A Louisville with a triple-slash line of .243/.340/.486, but he has 10 doubles and 11 home runs in 177 at-bats, plus he has the literal minimum salary of $2,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel and $7 on Yahoo. Since he has the platoon advantage, he’ll likely bat fifth or sixth, depending on the whims of manager David Bell.

Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer And Jeimer Candelarioare of course the trio that matters, with Will Benson a differentiation opportunity and leadoff man Jonathan India the best remaining synergistic play for a full stack.

Primary goal of late staging: Atlanta Braves

Diaz is barely 6’1, so he’s not that imposing on the mound and his power pitches let him put in maximum effort. It wouldn’t be a surprise if that unbalances some of the Atlanta hitters, but that might only work once in the lineup, if it comes to fruition at all. Diaz has worked his way up the MiLB ranks well, but he’s best suited as a reliever rather than a starter. He has the tools to be an eighth-inning lockdown option in a few years and potentially a closer as well.

Without too Ronald Acuna Jr. And Michael Harris IIAtlanta has plenty of experienced hitters who should be able to handle a rookie feeling the bright lights of the top stage for the first time. It looks like the former Seattle super-prospect Jarred Kelenic He really needed a change of scenery and has performed well since being promoted from the bottom of the rankings to the top through attrition.

Marcell Ozuna hits the ball with absolute bravura and has an incredible ISO of .280 and a triple-slash line of .282/.358/.561 since the start of last season. Ozzie Albies And Austin Riley are two of the best batsmen in the game, and we haven’t even mentioned Matt Olson not yet. This is still a strong lineup that is the envy of the bottom half of the league, even without the two injured outfielders.

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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Tips Today

Chris Paddock is in play as SP2 for his DFS matchup, but he’s also a contender in the sports betting world due to his under 3.5 strikeouts, available at +130 on DraftKings.

OddsShopper shows that this bet has “actual odds” of +119 for Paddack to fall below that threshold, giving an expected ROI of a solid 4.9%.

We can also see how important it is to compare odds, as sharp bookmakers prove. Climax at the bottom at a line of +101, which corresponds to an expected ROI of NEGATIVE 9%.

Even before his “tired arm” situation, Paddack struck out fewer than four batters in six of his 15 (40%) starts. Between his time off, likely pitch ceiling, and general ineffectiveness, there’s a 46% chance he won’t get the four strikeouts needed for this bet to fail. That still means we want this bet at +119 odds or better, which is currently offered by DraftKings, with Fanatics, ESPN BET, and Caesars also offering plus money above that threshold.

As the lineups are announced, more bets are constantly appearing and disappearing every few minutes, which is why it’s important to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all the opportunities.

Final MLB DFS Tips and Thoughts for Monday, July 8th

You don’t have to worry about precipitation tonight, but as always, check your MLB weather forecast page of choice just before first pitch for up-to-date information before placing your MLB DFS picks.

Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live before the Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET presented by Underdog Fantasy – new users, use this link to get a first deposit match up to $250!