Debate whether ‘Baby Reindeer’ will prove to be the limited edition ‘Beef’ of 2024 (WATCH) – GoldDerby

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If there is one consensus among Emmy pundits this awards season, it is that perhaps the most competitive collection of categories is the miniseries genre, where a tough choice promises a fierce battle between a long list of worthy nominees in the Best Miniseries categories and the four mini/TV Movie Acting casts. During a miniseries-focused slugfest debate ahead of the July 17 Emmy nominations announcement, Gold Derby’s senior editors Denton Davidson, Marcus James Dixon And Daniel Montgomery and editor for news and features Ray Richmond all agreed that Gold Derby frontrunner “Baby Reindeer” is a worthy favorite, likely to ultimately win the top, limited prize (assuming it is actually nominated). But they disagreed on how the rest of that category plays out and how performers’ spots will be distributed. Although there are only five spots to fill, Richmond believes he “could argue for double the number that deserve to be in there.” Watch the quartet’s extremely spirited discussion above.

Montgomery points out, “I have ‘Baby Reindeer,’ followed by (Season 5 of) ‘Fargo,’ ‘Lessons in Chemistry’ and ‘True Detective: Night Country’ — and I’m going out on a limb here, because last year the Emmys decided that the only night of TV that matters is Sunday night on HBO. So I have ‘The Sympathizer’ there (in fifth place). But maybe I’ll change that later. I’ll chicken out and go back to ‘Ripley.’ And I also say get your act together, Emmys, and expand this category next year.” Richmond is betting on ‘Baby Reindeer,’ ‘Fargo,’ ‘Lessons,’ ‘Ripley’ and ‘True Detective,’ but like Montgomery, he’s eager to add more films simmering just below them. “If there were ten spots in this category, I’d also vote for ‘Griselda,’ ‘Under the Bridge,’ ‘The Tattooist of Auschwitz,’ ‘Painkiller’ and ‘Masters of the Air,'” he says.

Dixon, meanwhile, explains that his favorite miniseries of the year was “The Fall of the House of Usher,” which is not currently among the favorites for the nomination. He notes, “It’s way down at number 15 (in the Gold Derby odds), which just says something about how great this category is this year.” He predicts “Baby Reindeer” as the winner, predicting it will be “the ‘beef’ of 2024.” Dixon adds, “When it came out, everyone was talking about it and they’re still talking about it months later. I think it’s going to win a lot of trophies.” Otherwise, he’s picking “Lessons in Chemistry,” “Fargo,” “Ripley” and “True Detective: Night Country.”

Davidson agrees that “Baby Reindeer” is likely to be an Emmy win, but warns everyone not to forget “Lessons in Chemistry,” which he calls “the most consistent miniseries in the series so far, one that comes back after a good run in the previous Guild Awards season.” He also has “Ripley” and “Fargo” in the lineup, along with “Fellow Travelers,” a series “that a lot of people are rooting for,” he believes. “There’s a lot of heartfelt emotion behind it. People love this show and they love the performances of Matt Bomer And Jonathan Bailey in it. And it’s a really important story.”

Speaking of acting categories: In the category “Best Actress on a Limited Budget”, the nomination chances at Gold Derby are in the order Jodie Foster for “True Detective: Night Country”, Brie Larson for “Chemistry lessons”, Juno Temple for “Fargo”, Sofia Vergara for “Griselda” and Kate Winslet for “The Regime”. But several editors chose a latecomer in seventh place: Jessica Lange for the TV movie “The Great Lillian Hall.” “I think Jessica wins,” says Dixon. “It’s one of the best performances ever. Anthony Hopkins won (an Oscar) for a very similar performance in ‘The Father,’ in terms of portraying the early signs of dementia and forgetfulness, and a lot of voters will be able to identify with that.” Richmond also chooses Lange for a performance he calls “arguably the best thing she’s ever done.”

Montgomery still sees Jodie Foster as the winner for Best Supporting Actress, wondering, “Am I the only one? My top three are Jodie, Brie and Juno. After that, those two spots could go to ten different women.” Davidson is predicting Larson to win for “Lessons,” followed by Lange, Juno Temple, Foster and Sofia Vergara. “I don’t think Kate Winslet will be nominated for ‘The Regime,'” he adds. “I don’t think ‘The Regime’ will go anywhere. But I’m predicting Sofia Vergara for ‘Griseldsa,’ the only nomination I have for that show, so take from that what you will.”

In the race for the best actor in limited edition, a duel seems to be developing between Jon Hamm for “Fargo” and Richard Gadd for “Baby Reindeer”, and the expected top 5 at Gold Derby are rounded out by Andreas Schröder for “Ripley”. Tom Hollander for “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” and Bomer for “Fellow Travelers”. “Tom Hollander, get rid of that!” predicts Dixon. “Three years ago, I was the only person at the Gold Derby who said: Ewan McGregor would win for ‘Halston.’ It was an eccentric, exaggerated, real person in a Robert F. Kennedy limited series. Check, check, check, check, check. That’s one of the easiest things for me. I don’t even want to nominate any other people. But I have Andrew Scott, Jon Hamm, Richard Gadd and Matt Bomer.”

Davidson is predicting Bomer and Scott to win, but admits he is baffled by the sheer strength of the opposition. Richmond is banking on Gadd to win as part of a “Baby Reindeer” explosion, although after watching “Ripley” he thought Scott couldn’t lose. Montgomery points out, “Everyone below (the Gold Derby leaders in the odds) is almost as impressive. They have Tony Shalhoub for (the TV movie) ‘Mr. Monk’s Last Case’, David Oyelowo for “Lawmen: Bass Reeves”, Hoa Xuande for “The Sympathizer”, Michael Douglas for “Franklin.” It’s incredibly packed. But I think Richard Gadd wins.”

PREDICTIONS the 2024 Emmy nominees until July 17

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