Euro 2024: Chris Sutton’s semi-final predictions
The finish line is in sight, but which of the four remaining teams at the 2024 European Championship will make it to the final on July 14 in Berlin?
Like the English penalty takers against Switzerland, BBC Sport football expert Chris Sutton was spot on with his predictions for the quarter-finals, getting all four results right.
And the majority of you were spot on every time – although only 57% of you, out of over 160,000 votes, thought England would beat Switzerland. That’s the lowest percentage of any team you picked correctly.
However, this means that, like Sutton, you have an overall success rate of 54%, having guessed correctly 26 times in the 48 games played in Germany so far.
- Author, Chris Bevan
- Role, BBC sports journalist in Berlin
Can you beat him in the semi-finals? Below you can make your predictions for France – Sutton’s pre-tournament tip to win the Euros – against Spain and England against the Netherlands.
SEMIFINAL
TUESDAY, JULY 9
Spain vs France
I’m in a dilemma here, because even before the ball was kicked, I had predicted that France would win the 2024 European Championship.
Didier is an old friend of mine because we arrived at Chelsea at the same time in 1999 and stayed in the same hotel. We played cards in pairs and he was always quite cautious back then… but nothing compared to the way he makes his team play today.
When I think of the French football team, I think of flair and extravagance, starting with Michel Platini’s team that won the European Championship in 1984. The teams that won major titles in the years that followed were always the same.
However, this version of Les Bleus was complete crap to watch.
They were excellent in defence. William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano were absolutely outstanding as a centre-back duo and Mike Maignan was also excellent in goal.
In terms of attack, I was just shocked by their performance against Portugal. Ousmane Dembele came in and made the difference, but Kylian Mbappe didn’t get going at all.
Spain, on the other hand, were the team of the tournament. Their quarter-final win over Germany took a while to get going, but when it did, it was great.
Spain is doing things very differently from France and even England, and everything they have done has been very impressive – except perhaps that at times they have not been ruthless enough.
Their manager Luis de la Fuente will have to make changes for this game as Robin le Normand and Dani Carvajal are both suspended, while Pedri will miss the rest of the tournament due to a knee injury.
If I were to be logical, I would still say Spain will win. Lamine Yamal is so exciting, Nico Williams was probably the player of the tournament and Rodri and Fabian Ruiz dominate the midfield. But I just have a feeling France will go through.
Of course, Mbappe could play like the superstar he is, or Dembele could cause problems for Marc Cucurella if he starts, but what is more likely is that France will simply smother Spain and do their job even if they don’t play well.
WEDNESDAY, 10 JULY
Netherlands vs England
Wout Weghorst’s physicality made the difference for the Dutch in their match against Turkey after he came on as a half-time substitute when they were 1-0 down.
England coach Gareth Southgate was accused of not being decisive enough with his substitutions, but Ronald Koeman did everything right for the Netherlands.
Instead of trying to play complicated and play through Turkey, they brought the ball out, crossed it inside and Weghorst became a massive threat.
I don’t necessarily think he will start against England, but they have an option on the bench if they need him.
However, England will not only have to be wary of Weghorst, as Cody Gakpo will also be dangerous.
Gakpo probably didn’t show the form we expected from him for Liverpool, but he had his moments. For the Netherlands, however, he was their best player at the tournament.
There is a possibility that the Netherlands will switch to a back three in this game like England did against Switzerland. Koeman often does this when playing against stronger teams.
If the teams play with the same formation, I think England have a better midfield than the Dutch duo of Jerdy Schouten and Tijjani Reijnders.
The problem is that England have simply not been able to demonstrate their offensive capabilities so far.
They have relied on some big moments so far, but the equalisers scored by Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka against Slovakia and Switzerland respectively came with their teams’ first shot on goal of the game.
So what should we call it? I don’t think there will be any drastic change in the way England play. They won’t suddenly find amazing patterns of play that will put the Netherlands under pressure.
Instead, England will have to rely on individual excellence again if they want to reach the European Championship final for the second year in a row.
I didn’t blindly bet on them to get through every knockout round in Germany, but they are definitely on the easier side of the draw.
This is their toughest game yet and it will be very close, but I think England will win it… somehow.
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