Are Israel and Hezbollah heading for a full-scale war?

Since October 8, 2023, daily exchanges of fire between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel have highlighted how easily Israel’s war on Gaza has spread to other parts of the Middle East.

Hamas-allied Hezbollah is putting pressure on Israel by forcing the Israeli military to withdraw resources from the Gaza Strip to confront the Lebanese group on the northern front.

This has been demonstrated by the growing unity of the so-called “Axis of Resistance” led by the Islamic Republic of Iran.

So far, these clashes along the Lebanon-Israel border have claimed over 496 lives in Lebanon and 26 in Israel. Most of them were Hezbollah fighters and Israeli soldiers. But civilians have also been killed in these confrontations.

At the same time, these cross-border clashes led to the displacement of tens of thousands of people in both countries.

Assassination of Muhammad Nimah Nasser

On July 4, the Lebanese Hezbollah fired a salvo of 200 rockets and drones at military positions in Israel.

It was the second retaliatory attack by the Lebanese organization for the killing of Hezbollah commander Muhammad Nimah Nasser (alias Hajj Abu Nimah) by Israel a day earlier in southern Lebanon. He was the third high-ranking Hezbollah official killed by Israel in cross-border fighting that erupted immediately after the start of Israel’s war on Gaza nine months ago.

Hezbollah’s first retaliation for Nasser’s killing came the same day, when the group fired more than 100 rockets at its longtime enemy in the south.

The July 4 attack on Israel was one of Hezbollah’s most violent attacks during this period of escalating hostilities. In light of these developments, fears of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah are growing.

To say the least, the stakes are high. Beyond the human suffering and property destruction in Lebanon and Israel, such a scenario could add many new layers of instability to the Middle East and have significant implications for global security.

“Both sides are busy sending strategic messages to the other side, and the assassination of Mohammed Nimah Nasser is certainly a strategic message that Israel is sending to Hezbollah to show the extent to which it can dictate the course of events,” said Dr. Mehran Kamrava, professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, in an interview with The new Arab.

“However, the attack increases the possibility of war, as Hezbollah now feels it must respond with an attack of similar magnitude,” he added.

The assassination of Nasser shows that Israel is still intent on assassinating high-ranking Hezbollah military officials, but experts believe that this latest killing will have no real impact on Hezbollah’s ability to stand up to Israel.

“Israeli commandos have targeted dozens of Hezbollah officers, and the recent killing of a key commander is certainly a blow to the so-called Party of God. An estimated 400 to 500 militiamen have been murdered in the past eight months, mostly by car bombs and drone strikes, leading to retaliatory Hezbollah strikes on Israeli military facilities along the borders between the two countries,” said Dr. Joseph A. Kéchichian, a senior fellow at the King Faisal Center in Riyadh. TNA.

“These casualties underscore the scale of the confrontations that have been recorded since October 8, 2023, and which are likely to continue until a diplomatic solution is agreed. Nevertheless, Hezbollah does not lack military personnel and will easily replace Muhammad Nimah Nasser, its most recent martyr. The militia has an army estimated at 50,000 to 60,000 units led by well-trained officers. To believe otherwise is to underestimate its intrinsic strengths,” he added.

War is not inevitable

Such widespread concerns about a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah are justified. However, that does not mean that such a scenario is inevitable. The main reason is that both sides understand that such a full-scale war would result in a high level of death and destruction on both sides.

Michael Young, senior editor at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, sees the escalating rhetoric less as a sign of a shared interest between Israel and Hezbollah in avoiding war.

“Each side is trying to use rhetoric to portray itself as unwilling to make fundamental concessions in negotiations. So is all-out war inevitable? Of course not,” Young said. TNA.

“What has surprised me over the last … nine months is that both sides have respected the rules of engagement rather than trying to break them. OK, they crossed certain red lines, but they did so in a way that reinforced their deterrence posture. But by and large they have respected the red lines,” he added.

“When you raise the stakes like that, the main purpose seems to be to develop some kind of pre-negotiation behavior. That’s how I see it. Hence my conclusion that war is not inevitable. As I said, if they spent nine months avoiding war, why does war suddenly become inevitable from one day to the next? I’m not sure. I don’t think Gaza is a sufficient explanation for that,” Young said.

Dr. Kéchichian believes that the likelihood of such a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is “relatively low.” This is due to both political and military factors.

“At home, (Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu is at odds with his coalition, and although recent opinion polls favor his policies, a large part of the population is against him. On a military level, a war in southern Lebanon will not resemble the barbaric attacks in Gaza. (Hezbollah) is a real army, heavily equipped with lethal weapons and determined to launch attacks deep inside Israel,” he said. TNA.

Israelis are aware that Hezbollah will be “tougher than many believe” in such a war, and there are also the views of the international community, which has witnessed Israel carrying out “genocidal attacks against a predominantly civilian population” in Gaza since October, Kéchichian said. The “overwhelming international disgust” at Israel’s behavior will only grow louder if Netanyahu’s government wages such a war against the most powerful Lebanese faction.

“War is not inevitable and there is a good chance that it will be avoided in southern Lebanon,” he said TNA.

Dr. Kamrava also believes that the claim that a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is inevitable is false. He points to three main factors that mitigate this inevitability. First, Hezbollah has already demonstrated its ability to inflict immense suffering on Israel in a conflict in 1992 and 2006, and today the Lebanese organization is “immeasurably stronger.”

Second, Hezbollah’s recently released drone footage shows that they are “capable of penetrating Israeli defenses and recording video of sensitive Israeli positions.” Third, reports of Israeli ammunition shortages show us that “the Israeli army has no appetite for another endless war.”

In conclusion, Dr. Kamrava concludes that “the probability of a new war between Israel and Hezbollah is high, but at this point this war is far from certain.”

At present, there is still an opportunity for those responsible to successfully de-escalate and reach a diplomatic solution that could prevent hostilities from escalating into a full-scale war that would likely involve numerous state and non-state actors from across the Middle East.

Although the Biden administration has failed to stop Israel’s criminal behavior since October 7, this security crisis in southern Lebanon and northern Israel presents an opportunity for Washington to use its influence to push the Israelis back before Tel Aviv could foolishly decide to launch an all-out war against an Arab force that far outnumbers Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The White House would be wise to seize this opportunity before it is too late.

Giorgio Cafiero is CEO of Gulf State Analytics.

Follow him on Twitter: @GiorgioCafiero