Three Padres takeaways: Jackson Merrill’s All-Star value, bullpen alarm and line drives

SAN DIEGO — The San Diego Padres missed their chance to win a fifth straight series over the weekend, but there was still reason to celebrate: Before Sunday’s 9-1 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks, Jackson Merrill, Luis Arraez and Robert Suarez learned in a clubhouse meeting that they had been named National League All-Stars, joining teammates and chosen starters Jurickson Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr.

Here are three takeaways as the Padres approach the All-Star break.

Jackson Merrill’s selection underscores unexpected strength

After the Padres traded Juan Soto in December, San Diego’s outfield was a potential black hole of productivity for a few months. Tatis reported to spring training as the only proven major league starter in training camp. Profar, coming off the worst season of his career, signed a $1 million contract days later. Merrill had yet to make his professional debut in the outfield.

This is the first time that three Padres outfielders have been named to the same All-Star game. Tatis performed well before being sidelined by a stress reaction in his right leg. Profar was unexpectedly the Padres’ best player and a candidate for league MVP. Meanwhile, one could argue that Merrill was the biggest game-changer for a team that has more than kept its head above water despite a series of injuries.

Merrill is the first Padres rookie and youngest Padre ever named an All-Star. He is the franchise’s first homegrown All-Star since Jake Peavy in 2007, an organizational triumph for a club in desperate need of inexpensive players. A relatively weak class of National League outfielders made Merrill’s selection possible, but the 21-year-old has earned his spot by showing a rare gift on offense, playing strong defense at a new position and generally putting in a performance well beyond his years.

Jackson Merrill is the NL Rookie of the Month for June!

The @Padres Outfielder joins #MLBTonight to talk to his mom at Fenway about the team, what’s going on at the plate, and how to hit a home run! pic.twitter.com/r8GT7ISKVM

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 3, 2024

“I might sit there and think about it (being an All-Star) for a second, but I was mad today when we lost, no matter what I was told today,” Merrill said after Sunday’s game. “My thoughts are always on the team and not on myself personally.”

Merrill, the reigning National League Rookie of the Month, has created immense value while earning the major league minimum salary. He was worth 2.5 FanGraphs wins above replacement, trailing only Profar and the New York Mets’ Brandon Nimmo among National League outfielders. Trent Grisham, the center fielder Merrill replaced, never topped 2.5 WAR in a full season with San Diego. He is currently at 0.3 WAR as a backup outfielder for the New York Yankees.

During Sunday’s clubhouse meeting, Padres manager Mike Shildt announced that Suarez and Arraez had been selected as All-Stars before telling Merrill the good news, prompting an uproar in the room.

“I was happy when I saw (Merrill’s) face,” said Arraez, who was nominated for the All-Star Game for the third consecutive year. “I thought he was going to cry. If I were him, I’d cry, but he deserves it, man. He plays hard.”

No matter how this season pans out, the Padres can be equally grateful to have a premium position at stake. Merrill’s almost instant rise to stardom is a turning point for a franchise and a city that had been yearning for homegrown impact.

Multiple alarm for large area fire

In three games against a Diamondbacks team chasing them in the wild-card standings, the Padres’ bullpen kept calling out SOS. The San Diego relief pitchers allowed a total of 16 runs in 8 2/3 innings during that span.

The unit has a 4.14 ERA, despite strong first halves from Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon. These pitchers were often used under less than ideal circumstances — for example, when they pitched for a third straight day — which further highlights the Padres’ lack of reliable middle relievers. For much of the season, veterans Enyel De Los Santos (4.75 ERA, 5.53 FIP) and Wandy Peralta (4.32 ERA, 5.66 FIP) were the biggest offenders.

The Padres also need to add to their rotation — Joe Musgrove isn’t expected to return for several weeks and Yu Darvish is on the restricted list indefinitely due to a personal family matter — but they may not be able to afford to wait much longer to sign a reliever or two. While President of Baseball Operations AJ Preller is busy on the phone, he faces the challenges of limited capital and a market with high demand and low supply for effective relievers.

Still, it’s worth noting that the heroics of Profar and Manny Machado on Friday saved the Padres from a potential sweep. And that the bullpen nearly secured a sweep. The Padres have won 12 of their last 17 games and need to continue to rack up as many wins as possible before innings limits and other rotation gaps widen. In that endeavor, bullpen reinforcements are a must.

Paving the way to consistency

In 2023, the Padres posted a .244 batting average with a 22.4 percent line drive rate, ranking 28th in the major leagues. So far in 2024, the Padres are second in the major leagues with a .263 average. Their 25.9 percent line drive rate on Sunday was also second.

Since the mound was lowered in 1969, it’s never been harder to get a major league hit. The Padres have countered that by adopting more of a line-drive approach. In part, this is necessary; Tatis recently went on the injured list along with Xander Bogaerts, despite both players having above-average line-drive rates. In part, this is a product of assembling a post-Soto roster. And in part, it’s a response to a 2023 season in which the Padres have frequently been frustrated by long flyouts at Petco Park.

“Our approach is tailored to this stadium,” Shildt said earlier this season. “When you hit at Petco Park, you use the whole field, you take what the game gives you. We also have guys like Arraez who are built for this stadium.”

A more contact-oriented mindset comes with some trade-offs. The Padres finished last season with an OPS of .742 and now have an OPS of .736. But with the offense declining league-wide, their current OPS is ninth in the major leagues. They are now eighth in runs scored and first in OPS in high-pressure situations, according to FanGraphs. Last season, their OPS in high-pressure situations was 29th.

(Photo: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)