Lancet warns: Death toll in Gaza Strip could exceed 186,000
The Lancetthe prestigious British peer-reviewed medical journal, warned that the true death toll from the Gaza genocide could be 186,000 or more.
This horrifying figure represents 8 percent of the population of Gaza. A similar percentage of the US population would be 26 million people.
It is an indictment of the United States and its imperialist allies for financing, arming and politically supporting the Israeli genocide in the Gaza Strip.
The enormous death toll was made possible by the 14,000 2,000-pound bombs that the United States supplied to Israel. These bombs not only massacred tens of thousands of people, but also destroyed every aspect of civilization in the Gaza Strip. Tens of thousands of people died from malnutrition, infectious diseases and lack of health care.
The official death toll since the start of the Israeli attack is 37,396, according to Gaza government sources. The lancet noted that this figure does not take into account the thousands of people buried under the rubble, nor the countless deaths caused by the deliberate destruction of food distribution, health and sanitation systems in the Gaza Strip.
In the report published on Friday entitled “Counting the Dead in Gaza: Difficult but Essential” The lancet noted:
The number of reported deaths is likely to be an underestimate. The non-governmental organization Airwars closely studies incidents in Gaza and often finds that not all names of identifiable victims are on the ministry’s list. In addition, the UN estimates that 35% of buildings in Gaza had been destroyed by February 29, 2024. The number of bodies still buried under the rubble is therefore likely to be considerable, estimated at over 10,000.
The publication further noted that “collecting data for the Ministry of Health in Gaza is becoming increasingly difficult due to the destruction of large parts of the infrastructure.”
The report warned:
Given the intensity of the conflict, the destroyed medical infrastructure, the severe shortages of food, water and shelter, the inability of the population to flee to safe places and the loss of funding for UNRWA, one of the few humanitarian agencies still active in the Gaza Strip, the total death toll is likely to be high.
The Lancet noted:
In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths are three to 15 times higher than direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths for every one direct death to the 37,396 reported deaths, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186,000 or even more deaths are attributable to the current conflict in Gaza. Assuming the estimated population of Gaza of 2,375,259 in 2022, this would represent 7.9% of the total population of Gaza.
The Lancet Thus, the estimate of a death toll of 186,000 is based on two assumptions that would tend to lower the estimated death toll. First, it assumes the government-reported death toll of 37,396, which does not include those buried under rubble. Then, it uses a multiple of four to estimate the “indirect” deaths caused by the war, as opposed to the multiple of 15 times the number of “direct deaths” observed in other conflicts.
There are reasons to doubt the validity of these underlying assumptions, including the fact that Israeli politicians have explicitly stated the goal of killing Palestinian civilians through starvation and disease.
In November, Giora Eiland, former head of Israel’s National Security Council, published an article calling on the Israeli military to create medical conditions that would result in as many civilians in the Gaza Strip dying from preventable diseases as possible.
He wrote:
Who are the “poor” women of Gaza? They are all mothers, sisters or wives of Hamas murderers. … The international community is warning us of a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and of serious epidemics. We must not shy away from this, however difficult it may be. After all, serious epidemics in the south of the Gaza Strip will bring victory closer and reduce the casualties among IDF soldiers.
This genocidal rhetoric is in line with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s statement that there is “a complete siege… no electricity, no water, no food, no fuel. We are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingly.”
In a report published last month, the United Nations Commission of Inquiry into the Gaza Genocide stated:
Israel has used hunger as a method of war, and the entire population of the Gaza Strip has suffered as a result for decades, with particularly negative consequences for children.
The UN Committee concluded:
At the time of writing, children have already died from acute malnutrition and dehydration. Through the siege imposed by Israel, Israel has weaponised the withholding of essential goods and has cut off the supply of water, food, electricity, fuel and other essential goods, including humanitarian aid. This constitutes collective punishment and retaliation against the civilian population, both of which are in clear violation of international humanitarian law.
The Biden administration is covering up and defending the genocide in Gaza, claiming that the deaths of civilians are an unintended consequence of Israel’s “war on Hamas.” However, these claims are refuted by the statements of Israeli politicians who have made it clear that they are waging a war of extermination against civilians.
In October, Israeli President Isaac Herzog stated:
It’s an entire nation that’s responsible for this. This rhetoric about civilians not knowing and not involved is not true… we will fight until we break their backs.
That same month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared: “You must remember what Amalek did to you,” referring to a Bible passage that says: “Go and attack Amalek. … Spare no one, but kill men and women, infants and children alike.”
The report by The Lancet makes clear that the genocide in Gaza is one of the greatest acts of imperialist barbarism in modern history. In less than a year, the United States and other imperialist powers, together with Israel, have wiped out nearly a tenth of the population of one of the most densely populated urban areas in the world.
This crime is part of a global outbreak of imperialist violence aimed at subjugating the entire world to neo-colonial rule, with most people targeting Russia and China. The high death toll in Gaza is a warning: imperialism is prepared to commit any crime to advance its predatory interests.
The genocide in Gaza must be stopped! On July 24, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Washington to present a progress report to his imperialist backers. We call on workers and young people to join the demonstration and rally in Washington called by the Socialist Equality Party for that day. It is a crucial step in building a mass movement against the war based on the working class.
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