Young Bucs provide added value

Current valuation: $9,875,000 (based on 2024 only)

Added value: USD 8,475,909

White proved to be a workhorse last year. His 336 touches were second-best in the NFL, with only Christian McCaffrey better. Volume can be a major factor in free agents. All five of the most highly correlated metrics with running back contracts are volume stats (but not all of those stats are what you think). But while White proved he can handle the workload of a lead back, his efficiency metrics weren’t at the level of the game’s elite players.

Still, the 2022 third-round pick’s yardage last year was pretty impressive. A significant portion of that came through the air, allowing him to stay on the field as an every-down back. White’s steady metric production last year most closely matches Joe Mixon’s three-year average leading up to his contract extension with the Houston Texans this year. That deal was for two years and $19.75 million, giving him an average annual salary (APY) of $9.875 million.

This valuation is based on White’s breakout 2023 season. If we were to look at his two-year total, his valuation would drop to $5.07 million, back in line with Mixon, but his two-year, $11.5 million 2023 contract gives him an APY of $5.75 million.

The Bucs selected Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the draft in April to reduce White’s workload this year. They also made some valuable additions to the offensive line to improve the third-year back’s performance and somewhat offset the reduced touches. It should be interesting to see how those two factors combine and what his evaluation looks like this time next year.

Bucs OT Luke Goedeke

Salary cap for 2024: $1,685,178

Current Valuation: $15,500,000 (based on 2024 only)

Added value: 13,814,822 USD

Goedeke’s one-year turnaround was nothing short of a Hollywood script. After being completely written off as a failure during his disastrous 2022 rookie season, the likable big man had to delete his social media profiles because he received hate messages due to his poor play. After a position change and one season, Goedeke is currently the star of Bucs ball.

His play last year, which included 40 pressures and a 5.83% pressure rate, as well as a 70.5 run block and pass block rating from Pro Football Focus, compares well to Charles Leno’s 2020 season. Leno was able to parlay that performance into a three-year, $37 million (12.33 APY) deal with Washington. When accounting for salary cap inflation, that APY rises to $15.5 million.

I’ve previously urged the Bucs to get involved early on a contract extension with Goedeke next year if he can repeat his 2023 performance in 2024, arguing for a deal in the range of $16.5 million to $17.5 million APY. His current valuation of $15.5 million would rise to that range if the salary cap is raised to $275 million for 2025 as I expect.

Last year alone, these two players added over $20 million in value to the Bucs, making for an increasingly impressive draft haul for the team starting in 2022. Add in the early returns from last year’s rookie class, and you have the makings of a talented and ultimately expensive team.