The pleasant weather continues – The Michigan Weather Center

We have some scattered fog this morning, but it will clear up and the sun will bring us another pleasant day. Yesterday’s high/low was 75/60.

Rain chances increase throughout the first half of the week as the Gulf conveyor belt brings more moisture to the state. The remnants of Beryl bring us the best rain chances mid-week.

NWS forecast

Weather forecast

1991: Tornadoes move through southern Lower Michigan. A tornado damaged about 20 homes near Highland in Oakland County. Additional damage occurred near Okemos in Ingham County, and a home and some outbuildings were damaged when a tornado moved northeast of Rockford in Kent County. A tornado also touched down briefly northwest of Plainwell in Allegan County, but caused no damage.

1988: The hot and dry summer of 1988 continues and Lower Michigan experiences another heat wave. Highs reach 100 degrees in Lansing and Grand Rapids on the 6th, followed by a record high of 98 degrees in Grand Rapids on the 7th.

On July 7, 2021, a series of severe storms passed through the Detroit metropolitan area, and there were numerous reports of tree and power line damage in Oakland and Macomb counties. These storms were accompanied by heavy rainfall, with some locations receiving over 1 inch of rain in about 30 minutes.

On July 7, 2012, temperatures in Detroit rose above 38 degrees for the second time in four days. This was the first time since 1988 that Detroit was warmer than 38 degrees twice in one year.

July 7, 2010 was also the hottest day during a five-day heat wave from July 4 to 8. Temperatures rose below 35 degrees Celsius in most areas, resulting in heat indices ranging from 35 degrees Celsius to about 38 degrees Celsius. There was little relief during the night hours, with lows at or above 21 degrees Celsius. Two heat-related deaths were reported.

Also on July 7, 1991, a strong derecho swept quickly eastward across southeast Michigan in the early evening hours, causing widespread wind damage and power outages. Wind gusts of 75 to 85 miles per hour were not uncommon in the Ann Arbor, Detroit, and Pontiac areas.

Discussion of the forecast

- Dry Sunday With Patchy Fog This Morning

Nighttime microphysics imagery shows areas of fog and stratus have
developed mainly north of I96 with other pockets on the Lake
Michigan shoreline. Additional development will be focused on the
region north of I96 and near/west of US131. Isolated pockets of
dense fog cannot be ruled out. This fog will dissipate by mid-
morning as solar heating ramps up.

Dry weather is expected today as surface and mid-level ridging slide
across the area. Expect beautiful weather in the form of partly to
mostly sunny skies with highs in the low 80s.

- Shower/Storm Chances Return Sunday Night

Low to moderate (20-40 percent) PoPs return to the forecast Sunday
night as warm air advection triggers the chance for showers mainly
north of a Holland to Mount Pleasant line. With HREF MUCAPE < 500
J/kg, thunder coverage will be isolated at worst. Highest PoPs will
be up near Ludington where low-level isentropic ascent is best.

Troughing slowly advances into the upper Great Lakes Monday, with
weak impulses ahead of this trough, combined with diurnal
enhancement from warm July sunshine, reinvigorating a chance (20-40
percent) of showers and storms Monday. The highest PoPs will be
north of I96 where the best shortwave forcing tracks. Given a
general MLCAPE <1000 J/kg and deep layer shear < 30 knots,
thunderstorms should be garden variety storms. Highs will range from
near 80 across the NW CWA where morning showers and cloud cover will
be thickest to the upper 80s across the southern CWA where sunshine
lasts longer.

- Convergent, moist flow through the first half of the week

The pattern for the upcoming week will be dominated by a building
high pressure system over the intermountain west and the
corresponding deep trough moving through the central CONUS that will
bring convergent moist flow over the midwest this week. The upper
level 500mb trough will become a conveyor belt for moisture. Through
this timeframe there is a lack of organized convection, however, the
warm air advection along with the streaming of gulf moisture should
couple with the daytime July temperatures to create an environment
for cloudy skies and daytime showers and afternoon storms. Have
scattered POPs through this timeframe. Latest WPC QPF that includes
Tuesday into Wednesday has around an inch to an inch an a half along
the I 94 corridor.

- Remnants of Beryl and an increase of warmth mid to late week

The big story mid to late week is the track of Tropical Storm
Beryl and its affects on the region as it becomes extra tropical.
The previously mentioned trough will be the main steering
mechanism for Tropical storm Beryl as it moves through the central
United States. The latest National Hurricane Center track has
Beryl barreling through the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys mid
to late this upcoming week with the cone of uncertainty covering
most of Michigan`s lower peninsula by 7 PM Thursday. The biggest
concern will be heavy rain showers due to the Gulf moisture. The
latest mid to long range models, including the various ensembles
tracks some showers from the remnants of Beryl Wednesday and
Thursday. There remains some uncertainty on the track and timing
especially when it comes to where the low will move through. Much
of the ensembles still has the low moving through Ohio through
some operational runs bring much of the moisture over southern
Michigan. Due to this have increased POPS through this timeframe.

Temperatures this week will meander around the upper 70s through
the early part of the week ending in the upper 80s into next
weekend which is just above normal for July.