The 5 O’Clock Club: Arguments for the transfer of Terry McLaurin and Jonathan Allen

The 5am Club appears from time to time during the season and aims to provide a forum for reader-driven discussions at a time of day when there is not much NFL News Feel free to suggest topics that interest you in the comments below.

CLICK HERE to see the complete 5 o’clock club archive

If Adam Peters really wants to strip the roster down to the bare minimum and rebuild it the way he wants, then 2025 will be another season of dramatic roster changes. But with Jayden Daniels in his second year and the rest of his Commanders draft class established in their roles, next year’s free agency won’t focus on many 1-year mid-tier veterans to build a temporary platform. Next offseason will see Peters select his second draft class, and he’ll need to make some significant free agent acquisitions designed to move the team toward playoff contention. I think he’ll also look to rejuvenate the roster a bit so that 2026 can be a breakout year with a roster positioned for continued success.

To make all of this happen, Peters may want to make some deals that don’t sit well with fans. For example, he may find it necessary to trade Jonathan Allen and Terry McLaurin, who will both be 30 years old in the 2025 season and are in their final year of contracts with the Commanders. McLaurin has a cap hit of $25 million, and trading him would increase available cap space by $13.8 million. Allen has a cap hit of $23 million, and trading him would increase available cap space by $17 million.

Compensation

Of course, compensation must always be discussed in transfer talks. Almost every fan believes that players from their favorite team bring in more in a transfer than they actually do, and most underestimate what it takes to get a player away from another team. Age, contract value and length, and performance on the field are all factors in a deal, as are the needs of the respective teams.

To provide some context, I looked at the player transfers made during the 2024 offseason and selected a few that seemed relevant; they are summarized in the table below:

The two that I think can be most telling are the trades of Keenan Allen and Haason Reddick. Both are in the final year of their contracts; both are good or very good players at their position, and both are nearly 30 years old. Keenan Allen was traded for a 4th round pick, while Reddick was traded for a 3rd round pick that can become a 2nd round pick under certain conditions. Allen is an 11-year veteran whose production per season is similar to Terry McLaurin, who is entering his 6th season. Reddick and Allen were drafted 13th and 17th, respectively, in the 2017 draft. Both have appeared in two Pro Bowls, although Reddick also has an All-Pro season coming off of 2022.

Looking at these two trades in particular, I conclude that an offseason trade for McLaurin or Allen would net between a second-round and a fourth-round pick for each – that would be the equivalent of two third-round picks if both were traded.

As a fan, I don’t want that to happen

As a Commanders fan, I can give you many reasons why I wouldn’t trade either of these players. They are team leaders who were drafted by the franchise. Each of them is a tough guy with high character. The Commanders are a better team with them than without them. They are both active in the community and valued by the fan base. I want to see both of them retire in burgundy and gold.

The argument to trade them anyway

However, here I would like to outline some important reasons for trading both players – and the reasons I give here apply to both players.

First, each of the two players is in the final year of their contracts in 2025. Washington will either have to pay a high price to keep them or let them go as free agents in 2026 in hopes of a compensatory pick in 2027.

Second, every team needs experienced leaders, and in 2024, these players are part of the overall strategy of having an experienced team that is on board with the coaching staff to provide the right (may I say it?) Culture. By 2025, Dan Quinn’s message should be understood by the players; the offensive and defensive strategies should be in place. Then it will be time to move on to younger players who can buy into the already established “Commanders Way” and carry it several years into the future. Allen and McLaurin will be better suited as experienced leaders on different teams.

Third, NFL careers are short, and players who hit the free agency market at 31 often don’t have much of a chance. By trading those players in 2025 to teams that want them — if they’re the right teams — Allen and McLaurin can get the opportunity to be part of teams that contend for the playoffs before it’s too late.

Fourth, the trades will provide both draft capital and salary cap space, allowing Adam Peters to build a younger, stronger roster. What could he do with two third-round picks and $30 million in additional salary cap space? My guess is that he could sign more talent that would contribute longer than if he let McLaurin and Allen play out the final year of their respective contracts.

In summary, it seems to me at least that the reasons to trade both players outweigh the reasons to keep them through the 2025 season. It would probably be better for the team and possibly better for the players to trade them to other teams that want and need them to compete for the championship.

Expectations and opportunities in 2024

Nobody knows what the 2024 season will bring. I confess, if I were a betting man, I would bet on the under against the 6.5 win total, not the over. If the Commanders somehow get out of the starting blocks and repeat the Texans’ success of 2023 – winning the division and making the playoffs with a rookie quarterback – then the scenario for 2025 may look very different. I confess, I wrote all of this assuming we’ll once again be in a 3rd or 4th place finish in the NFC East at the end of next season.

However, if my pessimistic assessment turns out to be correct, then there could be another scenario that builds on the same logic I outlined above, but that could offer even better results for the team and the two players (McLaurin and Allen).

The mid-season trade deadline

The Commanders will play their 9th game of the 2024 season away against the Giants on November 4th. The transfer deadline is November 5th.

If Washington’s season goes badly, for example with a losing record and two losses to the Giants, then the opportunity could arise to do what the team did last season and trade two key players at the deadline. This has certain advantages:

• As a “seller,” the Commanders could potentially demand a premium in terms of the draft capital required by a team that views McLaurin or Allen as the key to a championship run at the conclusion of the 2024 season. In other words, Washington could get a lot more than just a few third-round picks.
• A midseason trade of both could increase the effect on the salary cap. Frankly, a midseason trade of Terry would make little to no difference to the available salary cap, but a midseason trade of Jon Allen could save the salary cap by about $7 million (on top of his $17 million for 2025).
• In-season transfers would almost certainly maximize players’ chances of moving to teams that value them and are contending for the playoffs, giving each of them a chance to make the playoffs this season.

All in all, I would have preferred Ryan Kerrigan to be a “Redskin for life,” and I would prefer the same for players like Terry McLaurin and Jonathan Allen. But today’s NFL rarely allows players to start and end their careers in the same place; that’s why Bobby Wagner, Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, Jeremy Chinn and Frankie Luvu will be wearing burgundy and gold this season. Players go where they are needed and wanted and where the opportunity is greatest. Organizationally, the sensible decision might be to listen very seriously to trade offers for Allen and McLaurin, whether in November or in the 2025 offseason.