Up to 728,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded in Ukraine war

The Economist estimates that between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in the war against Ukraine. These figures are based on leaked US Department of Defense documents and official and unofficial sources.

The British newspaper published four charts, the first showing estimates from both official and unofficial sources over a certain period of time.

Current data from Russian media Mediazona and Meduza on July 5th suggest that the death toll in Russia is over 100,000. On June 21st, the number was between 106,000 and 140,000.

Much of this analysis is based on inheritance data and obituaries from social media. However, since February 6, Russian media data has been based on trends because access to official records has been disrupted.

The Economist points out that these estimates are consistent with other sources. French authorities recently reported a total loss of 150,000 Russian soldiers by May, and BBC Russia estimated that at least 113,000 people had died by June.

Data from Mediazona and Meduza also show a significant increase in Russian losses during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023 following the fighting for Avdiivka and Chasiv Yar.

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These figures do not include Ukrainians recruited by Russia from occupied territories, nor seriously injured Russian soldiers who are unable to return to combat. The Economist estimates that for every Russian soldier killed in combat, there are about three to four wounded.

By mid-June, The Economist estimated that between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded, exceeding the number of Russian invading troops in February 2022. French and British officials estimate that by early May, about 500,000 Russians had been seriously injured or killed.

The demographic impact of these losses is significant, with most casualties occurring among Russian men aged 35-39. An estimated 27,000 people were killed between February 2022 and June 2024. Since the start of the war, about 2% of all Russian men aged 20-50 have been killed or seriously injured in Ukraine.

The Economist’s latest chart shows that Russia’s losses in Ukraine since 2022 exceed those in all wars since World War II combined. However, Western politicians and analysts believe that these significant losses will have little impact on Russia’s labor supply in the short and medium term.

In addition, analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War estimated in June that Russian losses could reach as high as 20,000 killed and wounded per month. British intelligence reported in late May that average Russian losses in May were more than 1,200 people per day – the highest number since the war began.