Why the West is hesitant to support Ukraine

The strategy of equipping Ukraine with everything it needs to confront Russia on the battlefield for as long as necessary is facing growing resistance in the Western expert community and among decision-makers.

This trend is dangerous for Ukraine, which is crucially dependent on arms supplies and financial aid.

Although Ukraine has never “got everything it needs” so far, there is a risk that growing hesitation could over time call into question the whole issue of support for Ukraine and suggest a different negotiating strategy with Russia, albeit in favor of Ukrainian interests.

On the one hand, it is crucial to make the Western public aware of the disadvantages of such an option. On the other hand, it is also important for Ukraine to understand the reasons for such changes of course.

The West’s initial reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a reflex: it imposed sanctions on Russia and provided some support to Kyiv in order to gain time and strengthen the West’s own position and security.

As it became clear that Ukraine was capable of sustained resistance, a window opened for far more extensive arms deliveries, diplomatic activity, and institutional cooperation—possibly even to expel Russia from most of the occupied territories. The period 2022-2023 was an era of optimism: while Ukraine’s chances of winning the war, whatever one might define as victory, were considered high, the West seemed determined to stand by Ukraine for as long as it needed to.

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But two and a half years of war have taught us some lessons. While asymmetric tactics offer the weaker side a good chance of survival, in the long run Russia’s advantages have prevailed. Moscow’s superior power and high level of determination are playing into Ukraine’s – and the West’s – hands. After a year of successful counter-offensives, Ukraine has returned to the strategic defensive and is losing more territory. Diplomatic and economic pressure from the West has so far proved incapable of isolating Russia or making the costs of war unsustainable for Moscow.

As the Russian-Ukrainian war has developed into a long-term stalemate with global geopolitical implications, Western countries are rethinking their strategies.

Not everyone is ready to provide Ukraine with massive aid indefinitely. Some of them are increasingly concerned about their own security. There are also voices that want to end the war by persuading Ukraine to make concessions. This reluctance leads not only to a lack of Western strategy, but also to a lack of strategic vision in a number of individual Western countries. And they have good reasons to hesitate.

The fundamental reason is the desire to avoid escalation. Moscow’s rhetoric before and after the invasion was decisive, but even more decisive were the Kremlin’s decisions to annex Crimea in 2014 and invade in 2022.

The decisions showed how determined Ukraine was. Not only the West, but the whole world had to take Russia’s threats seriously. The Russian-Ukrainian war is an asymmetric conflict on several levels at the same time: Ukraine compensates for its lack of economic and military power with determination and asymmetric goals; but that is exactly what Russia is doing in its conflict with the West.

If the increase in betting gets out of control, the risks for the West could become unacceptable.

And let us not forget: no one is prepared for a nuclear escalation.

Given that Russia has proven that it can survive sanctions and a prolonged war, many in the West see no point in continuing the current strategy, arguing that it will lead to no outcome other than prolonged and multiplied suffering for Ukrainians.

Outperforming Moscow in the long run may be an unrealistic task: Doubling Russia’s defense budget is a sign of reserves that many would consider unlimited. More aid to Ukraine would be offset by increased arms production in Russia. If the options of providing security commitments/protection to Ukraine or sending troops no longer exist, there is no way to outperform Moscow in a long war.

Supporting Ukraine would therefore help it to resist, which would prolong the war but would hardly lead to victory. However, a resumption of the war has a price not only for Russia.

Disruptions to global supply chains and logistics, bottlenecks in food supplies and radical changes in the global energy market are making many Western countries vulnerable and jeopardising their economic prospects.

The EU and Germany in particular are suffering from disruptions in energy supplies from Russia, high inflation and other negative economic consequences of the war.

This is happening against the backdrop of Asian giants China and India seizing the opportunity to supply their industries with cheap oil and gas from Russia.

Many in the West feel that there is something wrong with this development.

There is also a lack of a vision of victory. Modern wars usually end without formal agreements and sometimes even without clearly defined winners, losers or outcomes.

Interstate wars are generally rare and often end with gradual de-escalation and a freeze. Nuclear weapons complicate things even more, as it is not at all easy to imagine an overwhelming defeat of a nuclear superpower.

Therefore, the question of the strategic goal is still open: should it be about defeating Russia or helping Ukraine survive? These different goals require different strategies, require different amounts of resources and entail different risks.

Global geopolitical considerations also play a role. Russia is a key player in several critical areas, such as the nuclear non-proliferation regime, arms control, and climate change. It also plays a role in an emerging balance of power between the West and a global South. There is a long-term planning approach in the West that emphasizes the importance of a balanced approach toward Moscow that enables future negotiations and freezes war.

The concerns about the Russian-Ukrainian war that have been so evident in the West in recent months are likely to persist or even increase. There are good reasons for this. The war is a strategic dilemma that has no cheap solutions. It is crucial for the Ukrainian public to understand these difficulties in order to improve dialogue with Western partners.

This text is part of the project “Pragmatic Dialogue with the West: Why it is worth supporting Ukraine”, carried out with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation. It represents the views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the position of the International Renaissance Foundation or the Kyiv Post.