Does “Israel” want war? | Al Mayadeen English

“Israel” is deeply divided. This is nothing new. It is a truism, and the question is usually posed as: “Divided – but along which axis?” Today, the divide is between a weary and increasingly pessimistic army and a seemingly determined political leadership that insists: “There is no choice but war – if Israel is to survive.”

Public support currently tends toward the latter – Netanyahu’s perspective.

Although Netanyahu has many fierce critics – including in the White House – the West generally ignores the fact that Israel’s desire for military action in Lebanon concerns not only Netanyahu but many other Israeli politicians as well. The choice is between “war now or war later” – this is how many Israelis understand it, as they see the surrounding walls closing ever closer to Israel.

It is all too easy in the West to repeat history, saying that Netanyahu is being “careless” about Israel’s future just to secure his own personal prospects. In fact, both sides of this internal Israeli divide have their arguments: the West may disagree with neither view, prefer calm and fear for Israel’s future; but ultimately there will inevitably be a climatic exit from the dynamics unleashed in 1948.

Israeli journalist Alon Ben David (a leading military commentator with Channel 13) reports that the Israeli army’s losses in Gaza have significantly limited its ability to wage war on multiple fronts. He argues that the Israeli forces “are not currently ready for a full-scale campaign in Lebanon.”

“If a full-scale war with Hezbollah is forced upon us, the (Israeli army) will fight with what it has at its disposal and harm the enemy … (but the army) is currently unable to achieve a significant success against Hezbollah and dramatically change the reality in the north.”

Ben David warns that the war in Lebanon

“will result in a bad solution that will cost a painful price… In all its 76 years, the (army) has never been organized for a nine-month war. Instead, it was built as a shock army that mobilizes its reserves at the moment of order, withdraws decisively in a short time and then returns to normality.”

Ben David added that a senior Air Force reserve officer had sent a letter to the army authorities “begging” them to “make it clear to the political level that the (army) is not prepared for a prolonged deployment in Lebanon.”

The biggest and real problem facing the government is the expectations of the population. The state evacuated about 80,000 to 100,000 residents from their homes on the border with Lebanon after October 8. There is currently no date when they will be allowed to return to their homes. The people’s anger over this perceived strategic failure is growing. The residents of the north, the media and the opposition are therefore exerting strong pressure.

On the other hand, senior IOF officials believe that Hezbollah has lost its advantage of surprise after large parts of northern Israel were evacuated. “Ultimately, we must send the northern residents back to their homes. If there is no agreement that guarantees their safety, we must act.” Another senior officer said any political agreement would be meaningless without a ground operation along the border aimed at destroying Hezbollah’s fortifications in the area. “Airstrikes will not destroy the infrastructure,” he stressed.

Benny Morris, a leading Israeli historian, is even more vehement:

“To survive, Israel must now attack Iran. We (Israelis) have arrived at the moment of truth and a decision is necessary. The world should support such an operation. But even if it does not, the country’s survival for its people should surely be more important than possible international condemnation and even sanctions, if they are imposed (although I doubt that serious sanctions would be imposed).”

“Given the current asymmetry in the capabilities of both countries, there is no better time to launch a strategic strike against Iran… Israel has a dramatic advantage in air capabilities thanks to its state-of-the-art F-15 and F-35 stealth aircraft. But above all, Israel has a unique advantage (according to foreign press reports): it has a nuclear arsenal, while Iran currently only aspires to possess one.”

And if Israel proves incapable of destroying Iran’s nuclear project with conventional weapons, it may have no choice but to resort to its unconventional capabilities, Morris writes.

A different dynamic is hidden “behind the back”: When Netanyahu welcomes a seven-front war with all his bravura, the West assumes that he is at best completely reckless. Or insane. However, plans for another, final Nakba, the expulsion of the Palestinian and Arab population from the “Land of Israel”, have been circulating for many years.

More likely than mere imprudence is that Netanyahu and his allies may sense an opportunity here (i.e., a malleable Biden) and a distracted Washington to entice the US to ally with “Israel” in a broader war against Hezbollah – and even against Iran (though Washington will not want that).

Israelis have chutzpah, but they are not stupid. Slowly, slowly, catch the monkey, as they say. “Israel” has already promised the White House that it will support an Israeli military operation against Hezbollah.

Netanyahu also benefits from the fact that the West automatically assumes that the IOF underestimates Hezbollah’s military and missile capabilities. The Economist fears: “Even if American destroyers were to take out larger missiles off the coast, Israel’s defense systems would be overwhelmed in places, resulting in heavy casualties – some estimates put the casualties in the tens of thousands.”

“If Israel cannot stop the (Hezbollah) rockets before they are fired, Israel’s goals will be to ‘destroy the state of Lebanon to its foundations,’ writes Yitzhak Gershon, who has been deputy commander of Israel’s Northern Command for the past few months. Gaza would look like paradise by comparison, he adds…”

Of course, such a scenario as described above terrifies the West, which would feel compelled to intervene – if only to contain the Israeli war machine or to prevent the Middle East from being reduced to rubble. Netanyahu and others are playing on these fears. The more the US acts on the perceived risk of Israeli impulsiveness, the more it climbs a rung up the escalation ladder – as planned.

Will there be war? “Israel” is surrounded, with no solution in sight. How long can a pause be maintained? Hamas is still strong, arming and recruiting new soldiers; Hezbollah has humiliated the IOF in the north, the West Bank is simmering – and the next two months before autumn are the time when the skies are clear and best suited for air operations.

A time of uncertainty has begun. Wars never go according to plan.