Will Cyprus be drawn into a war between Israel and Hezbollah? | News on the Israel-Palestine conflict

EXPLANATION

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned Cyprus that it would be targeted if it supported Israel in its attacks on Lebanon.

On June 19, Hassan Nasrallah, the powerful leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah group, warned Cyprus that it would become a target if it helped Israel attack Lebanon.

The Israeli army said it had agreed to an offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Israeli foreign minister said a statement on whether Israel would go to war was imminent.

Hezbollah had previously released footage it said was taken by one of its drones over the Israeli city of Haifa. The footage demonstrated Hezbollah’s ability to penetrate deep into Israeli territory, thereby conveying an implicit threat.

What does it mean for Cyprus if Israel declares war on Lebanon? Here’s everything you need to know:

Would Cyprus help Israel in an attack on Lebanon?

Cyprus has traditionally allowed Israel to use its airspace for aerial exercises, but never during active conflict – and it does not look like Cyprus will start doing so now.

Following Nasrallah’s threat, Cyprus declared that it would remain neutral and not interfere in a war.

However, Britain has bases in Cyprus which it uses for military operations in the region.

Britain is said to have used these bases for attacks against the Houthis in Yemen. The bases were also reportedly used to arm Israel in the war against Gaza and southern Lebanon.

“Cyprus’ declaration of neutrality can be seen as a strategic victory for Hezbollah,” said Imad Salamey, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University.

“This response … suggests an indirect message from the EU that there is no interest in supporting an Israeli military campaign.

“It strengthens Hezbollah’s deterrence position and contributes to a broader international stance of not supporting potential Israeli military action,” Salamey said.

What can Hezbollah do that would worry Cyprus?

On the one hand, one could do exactly what one has threatened: attack Israeli targets in Cyprus.

Or at least that is the possibility that Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, author of Hizbu’llah: Politics and Religion, described to Al Jazeera.

An attack “would have … devastating economic consequences for Cyprus,” said Saad-Ghorayeb.

“I think there have been protests in the past from opposition politicians in Cyprus saying how dangerous this policy (of allowing the use of Cypriot territory in a conflict) is for the country’s economy and security,” Saad-Ghorayeb added.

Other analysts are less convinced that Hezbollah would actually attack Cyprus because of the regional implications.

“I’m not sure what they can really do other than conduct disruption and covert operations. (Hezbollah) is aware that an attack on Cyprus will bring the EU and NATO into action,” said Maha Yahya, director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center think tank.

Did Nasrallah say this to scare Cyprus?

Nasrallah’s fiery speech could serve a purpose even if Hezbollah does not carry out its threats against Cyprus.

“This speech is part of a psychological war and is intended to send a clear message to Hezbollah’s opponents that any Israeli attempt to expand the scope of the war and attack Lebanon would have serious repercussions for all of Israel’s Western allies – especially its regional allies,” said Karim Emile Bitar, associate professor of international relations at St. Joseph University in Beirut.

Salamey added that Hezbollah’s psychological warfare could prompt the EU to put pressure on Israel not to expand the scope of fighting against Lebanon.

“The hesitation of Israel’s allies, as reflected in Cyprus’s stance, could cause Israel to reconsider the risks and consequences of a major war,” Salamey said.

“This international isolation and the lack of coherent objectives for military engagement in Lebanon underscore Israel’s fragility.”

What other concerns does Cyprus have?

Even if Cyprus were not involved in a conflict, a possible influx of refugees – Lebanese and Syrians in Lebanon – into its territory would be a concern for the country’s government.

In April, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides said he was concerned about the increasing number of Syrian refugees arriving on the island’s shores from Lebanon seeking asylum.

The European Union also shares concern about the refugees. It recently announced that it would provide Lebanon with more than a billion dollars in financial aid. The majority of the funds will go towards combating illegal migration.

Bitar, of St. Joseph University, said there was a “possibility” that Hezbollah could loosen control of its external borders to encourage refugees to flee to Cyprus. But he added that Cyprus’s – and the entire region’s – biggest concern was that Hezbollah and Israel could plunge the region into war – even if they had no intention of doing so.

“We live in a world where emotions are running high and actors – on both sides of the border – are not necessarily acting rationally,” he said.

That is why I fear that any miscalculation by either party – even if they have not explicitly decided on war – could open the gates of hell.”