Gaza war: “Breakthrough” raises hopes for ceasefire

This appears to be only a first step in a series of potentially complicated talks aimed at finally bridging the gap between the Israeli government and Hamas in defining the respective sub-goals of a possible agreement.

After Barnea left Doha, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said that differences between the two sides remained, with Israeli officials saying expectations needed to be tempered.

The recent revival of hope for an agreement came after Hamas submitted its response to the three-phase proposal put forward by President Biden a few weeks ago.

The key to this formulation was to remove what had long been seen as the main obstacle to acceptance of an agreement by both sides: Hamas’s demand for a permanent ceasefire and Israel’s counter-demand that it must be free to resume fighting in Gaza if necessary.

What exactly Hamas has put forward is not yet public knowledge, but the Israeli reaction appears to be far more positive than in other cases over the past seven months, when the process regained momentum. A source in the Israeli negotiating team said Hamas’ proposal represents a “very significant breakthrough.”

There are some indications that this may be because Hamas has accepted the core of the proposal announced by President Biden – namely, to allow negotiations to achieve its goal of a permanent end to the war through the first six-week phase of the ceasefire, rather than demanding it as a starting point.

Hamas has repeatedly protested that the US has portrayed it as the biggest obstacle to an agreement. If it turns out that it has indeed made this concession, the ball would be firmly back in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s court.

At no point has he personally deviated even an inch from his public commitment to the complete eradication of Hamas – and to Israel’s right to continue fighting in Gaza after a ceasefire. He has resisted all pressure from inside and outside Israel to change his stance. But the pressure on him from all sides is growing inexorably.

The latest push appears to be coming from within the military. A recent New York Times article, citing unnamed current and former security officials, said Israel’s senior generals “want to initiate a ceasefire in Gaza, even if it keeps Hamas in power for now.”

Netanyahu dismissed this as defeatist. But he may not be able to resist this pressure forever – nor the growing anger of those on the streets of Israel who want the remaining hostages in Gaza to be brought home immediately.

There are also signs within Hamas that despair over the ongoing war is growing among those who suffer from it every day: the civilian population of the Gaza Strip. And internationally, the patience of mediators such as Egypt and Qatar may be running out.