How will the next one turn out?

Wars in space are no longer just science fiction. In fact, the first space war has been raging for more than two years, with no end in sight. This is not a conflict involving X-wing fighters or Space Marines. Rather, it is about how satellites are being used to collect imagery, identify military targets, and facilitate communications in the war between Ukraine and Russia.

“When I watched Ukraine in the first few months, it was clear to me: This is the first space war,” says David Ignatius, a journalist who leads a double life as a foreign policy columnist for the Washington Post and as an author of spy thrillers.

In the latest episode of the Fiction Science podcast, Ignatius looks at the potential national security threats posed by satellite-based warfare—and how he incorporated those threats into the plot lines of his new novel, Phantom Orbit. The story sets up a scenario in which the first space war leads to a potentially catastrophic second space war.

Ignatius is reluctant to describe the novel as “science fiction.”

“All my books are based on my research,” he says. “I start with the real world – the issues that interest me – and if they seem more important and relevant than I can express in an 800- or 1,200-word newspaper column, then I think maybe that could become a novel.”

Reporting on the real world behind “Phantom Orbit” began in 2017, when Ignatius became intrigued by calls for the creation of the US Space Force. In the years that followed, he drafted the plot of a spy novel with a Russian satellite researcher as one of the main characters – and planned a research trip to Russia’s industrial heartland.

But before he could embark on this journey, war broke out in Ukraine in February 2022 – and Russia put Ignatius on the entry ban list. “My journalist friends were jealous,” he recalls.

Ignatius ultimately stole a number of plot points from real developments in the war in Ukraine – for example, how Russia jammed Viasat’s satellite internet network at the start of its offensive, how SpaceX’s Starlink network stepped into the breach to help Ukraine counterattack, and how commercial satellite imagery helped give Ukraine reconnaissance of the battlefield.

In response, the Russians have escalated the space war – disrupting the Starlink network, jamming satellite navigation systems, and camouflaging their military facilities to hide them from satellite sensors.

If the first space war escalates, Ignatius fears that Russia could resort to measures that could bring down entire satellite constellations. “We should be very concerned about the vulnerability of space systems,” he says.

For more than two decades, politicians have warned of a possible “Pearl Harbor” in space – a secret attack on America’s space assets. Ignatius points to US Representative Mike Turner’s recent warning about the possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia in space. Such weapons could destroy so many satellites that a devastating debris field would be created in orbit, or paralyze electronic devices with an electromagnetic pulse.

“The Russians are aware of their vulnerability in space. They know that the United States and its commercial companies would suffer asymmetric damage. We would suffer much more than Russia or China,” says Ignatius. “So they are willing to go ahead with these plans, and that should scare the hell out of people.”

What needs to be done? “First of all, I would say that our existing systems in space need to be hardened,” says Ignatius. “They need to be less vulnerable to all the damage an adversary could do.”

The U.S. Space Force is already well advanced in its efforts to make satellite networks more resilient—and easier to replace in the event of an attack. That’s exactly what its Tactically Responsive Space initiative is all about. Millions of dollars are being paid out to commercial companies to demonstrate how they could help the U.S. military send new assets into space to support existing networks in a matter of days, if not hours.

A rapid response demonstration mission, Victus Nox, was successfully launched last year. Firefly Aerospace and Millennium Space Systems served as Space Force commercial partners. Another demonstration, Victus Haze, is currently being prepared by Rocket Lab and True Anomaly. In total, a dozen commercial launch providers are on the Space Force’s list for future rapid response satellite missions.

The Space Force is even supporting the development of new architectures for space stations, such as the orbital system currently being built by Gravitics, a Seattle-area startup.

Monitoring what’s happening on orbit — also known as space domain awareness — is another must to keep America’s space safe. With Pentagon support, True Anomaly, Starfish Space and Northrop Grumman’s SpaceLogistics subsidiary are working on spacecraft that could approach other satellites in orbit to inspect them, refuel them, reorbit them or safely deorbit them.

On the Fiction Science podcast, Ignatius hints that even bigger things could be coming. “I just heard about a company that’s going to radically change the way space weapons and other large weapons systems are built,” he says. “It’s going to revolutionize the way weapons are built. The Russians and Chinese just don’t have nearly as much creativity. So there are a lot of reasons why I think people should be concerned, but this is one reason why they should be reassured.”

Which begs the question: what company is Ignatius talking about? If I had to guess, I’d bet on a defense technology startup called Anduril. But Ignatius isn’t revealing. At least not yet.

“It’s coming soon to the Washington Post near you,” he says, laughing.

Phantom Orbit is David Ignatius’ 12th novel. Visit DavidIgnatius.com for links to information about his books and his columns for the Washington Post. On July 15, he will participate in a live online chat with readers.

For more information on space security policy, check out the resources of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, including the Center’s most recent Space Threat Assessment. Ignatius also recommends resources from The Aerospace Corp.

This report and accompanying podcast were originally published on Alan Boyle’s Cosmic Log. Stay tuned for future episodes of the Fiction Science podcast via Apple, Spotify, Player.fm, Pocket Casts, and Podchaser. If you like Fiction Science, please rate the podcast and subscribe to receive notifications for future episodes.