The possibility of war between Israel and Hezbollah is causing many to consider leaving Lebanon for good

Michel Awad has lived through Lebanon’s worst moments, but with the threat of another war looming, he believes it may soon be time to give up on the country for good.

Awad’s home was damaged by a rocket attack in 1989, in the final days of a 15-year civil war. In 2006, he survived 33 days of war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia based in Lebanon. His three-year-old granddaughter, Alexandra Naggear, was among the 218 victims of a massive explosion in Beirut’s port four years ago that was never fully explained.

Now another war between Israel and Hezbollah seems increasingly likely. The Canadian embassy is warning its citizens to “book a flight immediately and leave the country” while preparing contingency plans to evacuate those who remain.

Mr. Awad – a Canadian citizen who lived in Montreal from 1989 to 1996 before moving back to Lebanon to be closer to his ailing mother-in-law – is not yet heeding the advice. The likelihood of open war still seems remote to him, especially in his home in Broumanna, a predominantly Christian village in the hills above Beirut. He is not about to give up his fight to hold someone to account for the explosion that killed his beloved granddaughter.

But if conflict occurs, the 65-year-old said he will leave Lebanon – either through an evacuation of its citizens by Canada or by coming to Canada on his own. Mr. Awad’s response was representative of half a dozen Lebanese with Canadian or other passports who spoke to The Globe and Mail this week.

Many of the estimated 75,000 Canadian citizens in Lebanon are currently watching and waiting. But if war breaks out, some say they will leave the country and never return.

“When the time comes and I feel the risk for my daughter and my parents, I will definitely move to Canada. This time I will not make the mistake of coming back,” said Mr Awad, referring to Alexandra’s mother Tracy, a Canadian citizen who is also considering returning to Canada.

Mr Awad said there were 15 families in his Broumanna neighbourhood who had Canadian citizenship. Half had already moved away, while the rest were waiting to see if the rumours of war – which are almost constant in Lebanon – would actually come to fruition. “When we reach that point, everyone will move to Canada, and this time it will be a one-way ticket.”

In fact, just 100 kilometers south of Broumanna, in the hills of southern Lebanon and northern Israel, war is already raging. Daily exchanges of tanks, artillery and rockets have driven tens of thousands of people from their homes on both sides of the border.

This week, Israeli artillery and warplanes struck Lebanese territory dozens of times, including a drone strike that killed a prominent Hezbollah commander. Hezbollah responded by firing 220 rockets and drones at Israel on Thursday alone. Since October – when Hezbollah launched its first attacks in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group Hamas – more than 430 Lebanese and at least 25 Israelis have been killed.

The only reason Lebanese and Israelis do not call the controlled conflict a “war” is because both sides know how much worse it can get. Many have personal memories of the 2006 war, which left more than 1,191 Lebanese and 165 Israelis dead and devastated large parts of southern Lebanon. Both sides claimed victory in that conflict, but so far neither side has shown any interest in another round of full-scale fighting.

The fighting, which began after Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel and Israel’s retaliatory invasion of Gaza, is the worst since the end of the 2006 war. The only reason the casualty figures are not much higher is the fact that some 60,000 Israelis and 100,000 Lebanese have been evacuated from towns and villages on both sides of the border.

But the uncertain fate of these evacuees is fuelling growing fears that the war in Lebanon could escalate as the fiercest fighting in Gaza slowly subsides. As hopes for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas grew this week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already hinted that any troops withdrawn from Gaza could be moved to the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Pressure is high on Netanyahu’s government to expel Hezbollah, which controls southern Lebanon, from the border so its citizens can return to their homes in northern Israel in time for the start of school in September.

And while Western diplomats rush to find a diplomatic solution, both Israel and Hezbollah are preparing for further escalation. “Nobody can imagine what this war will look like. This war will not only be in Lebanon, this war will spill over into Israel,” said Qassem Qasir, a political analyst and Hezbollah expert. “What Hamas did on October 7, Hezbollah is also ready to do.” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, meanwhile, warned that Lebanon would be bombed “back to the Stone Age” in the event of an open war, but stressed that Israel does not want to see such a conflict.

The 2006 war is remembered by Lebanese and Canadians as the chaotic evacuation of some 14,370 Canadian citizens from Beirut. The sudden outbreak of war caught Ottawa by surprise, and ferries were difficult to charter after Israel shut down Lebanon’s only civilian airport. The Lebanese and Canadians were left with their luggage at Beirut’s port long after the United States, France and most other countries had managed to get their citizens to nearby Cyprus.

This time, Canada is better prepared, even if the number of victims may be higher – and the “what-if” scenarios are far worse than in 2006.

Canada’s outgoing General Wayne Eyre confirmed on June 27 that plans were being made to evacuate up to 20,000 citizens from Lebanon in cooperation with Canada’s allies. Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly said in a statement on June 25 that Canadians should avoid travel to the country due to the “increasingly unstable and unpredictable” security situation and that “for Canadians currently in Lebanon, it is time to leave.”

Concerns that Israel might attack Rafik Hariri International Airport again grew last month when British newspaper The Telegraph quoted anonymous sources claiming the airport was being used by Hezbollah as a missile depot. The Lebanese government reacted angrily to the article, calling it “ridiculous” and inviting diplomats and journalists to tour the facility.

It is impossible to bring Canadian citizens into the country by land, as Lebanon borders only potentially belligerent Israel to the south and civil war-torn Syria to the north and east. That leaves the port of Beirut as the main exit point, as it was in 2006. Only this time, the facility was still damaged by a massive explosion in 2020.

The war in neighboring Syria could pose additional challenges, as Lebanon has hosted some 1.5 million refugees from that conflict. The possibility that desperate refugees could try to force their way onto an evacuation ship is another concern for planners.

The best way out, of course, is to avoid war. Mr Qasir said neither Hezbollah nor Iran wanted a war in Lebanon. But he laughed at the idea that the militia would comply with Israel’s demand to move its fighters and weapons north of the Litani River, 50 kilometers from the Israeli border. “It is easier to move the Litani River further south than to push Hezbollah north.”

This attitude has infuriated Lebanese critics of Hezbollah, who say the country is being dragged into a war that the majority of the population does not want. “The government should be responsible for making decisions about whether it is about war or peace. But they have basically left this decision to Hezbollah,” said Elias Stephan, a member of the opposition Lebanese Forces party and a member of the parliamentary committee on foreign affairs.

According to Stephan, Hezbollah is so powerful in Lebanon that it alone can decide the country’s future. The country has no president – a position elected by parliament – because Hezbollah and its allies have refused to elect anyone other than their preferred candidate, Suleiman Frangieh.

And now Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah – and not the country’s parliament – will decide together with Netanyahu what happens next. But the risk that such a conflict poses to Lebanon has long been accepted as a fact here.

“At the end of the day, Lebanese-Canadians are Lebanese. We are used to living on the edge,” says James Kairouz, a 39-year-old event planner who works in both Montreal and Beirut. “Nobody really believes there will be a major war in Lebanon. But Lebanese-Canadians also hope that Canada will come to their aid in the end.”