Gaza war recruits terrorists, US intelligence shows

“We have already seen this to some extent in Europe,” said Holmgren, referring to the arrest of people in Germany and the Netherlands accused of planning attacks on Jewish sites.

Holmgren issued his warning as he prepares to become acting director of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) later this month after Christine Abizaid, who has headed the agency since 2021, leaves.

Holmgren led the State Department’s intelligence agency when it was preoccupied with the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and faced a growing number of threats from major powers such as China and Russia, as well as from terrorist organizations such as al-Qaeda and allies of the Islamic State.

The FBI – one of 18 organizations that make up the U.S. intelligence community – is one of the least known yet most respected agencies in the U.S. government, given its long track record of foresight related to the wars in Vietnam and Iraq, as well as other geopolitical crises.

The office, known as the INR, cleverly warned in 1961 that South Vietnam’s war against the Viet Cong had stalled and would ultimately fail due to the popularity of the communist movement in the villages of the South.

In 2002, they disagreed with the CIA, which had concluded that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was secretly trying to build a nuclear weapons program – the George W. Bush administration’s declared reason for war, and the move is now widely regarded as one of the worst intelligence blunders in U.S. history.

During Holmgren’s tenure, the agency again proved clairvoyant following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Contrary to the majority of dire U.S. intelligence predictions that Ukraine would fall quickly due to its inferior firepower and troop strength, INR was more optimistic about Kyiv’s prospects, taking into account less tangible factors such as the country’s will to fight.

“If you just look at the intelligence and order of battle assessments, it’s clear that the Russians have the military advantage,” Holmgren said. “But to assess combat readiness and prospects for success on the battlefield, you also have to consider a country’s history, culture, local attitudes and public opinion – things you can’t derive from intelligence alone. This is where the INR’s unique expertise on Ukraine’s history, culture and people has led our people to take a more optimistic position about Ukraine’s prospects.”

INR relies on experts in academia who have years, sometimes decades, of experience in specific geographic regions and subject areas. The agency also has staff stationed in U.S. embassies around the world, giving its analysts unique insights that may elude other intelligence officials sitting in their offices in Virginia or Maryland. INR also has a relatively flat organizational structure, making it easier to reach internal consensus on contentious issues even when the agency is at odds with the rest of the intelligence community, Holmgren said.

As the Kremlin prepared to invade its neighbor, Holmgren met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on the seventh floor of the U.S. State Department, calling the experience the “most memorable” of his tenure there.

“I informed him of recent tactical intelligence indicating that Russia is on the verge of launching attacks on all of Ukraine,” Holmgren said.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s decision to entrust Holmgren with this responsibility reflects the trust he placed in him at this dangerous moment, said Victoria Nuland, former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs.

“Remember, Ukrainians were very divided about whether this was just an intimidation tactic by the Russians or whether they were actually going to intervene,” she said in an interview. “We were very careful to make sure they were maximally prepared for the worst.”

When Holmgren assumes his counterterrorism role, he will lead a staff of more than 1,000 employees responsible for maintaining a definitive database of known and suspected terrorists and sharing actionable intelligence from foreign and domestic sources.

Asked about growing anger at the US for its military support for Israel amid rising civilian casualties in Gaza, Holmgren said: “The feelings you hear on the ground are real.”

“They are reflected in the analysis we have conducted,” he said, acknowledging “the global impact that October 7 has had and likely will have on the perception of the United States in the region and in most Muslim countries.”

Israel’s fierce retaliation for the Hamas-led attack, which killed 1,200 people and took more than 240 hostage, has resulted in the deaths of more than 37,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities.

Holmgren declined to comment on the justification for US arms sales to Israel in the conflict, which has sparked widespread anger in the Muslim world, but stressed that foreign governments want to continue to work with the US on intelligence cooperation and solutions to the conflict, “whether in the Middle East, Latin America, Europe or Asia.”

“Many of these governments still want U.S. engagement and believe that this is important for the future of the region and also for the future of the international order,” he said.

Nuland said Holmgren could be expected to provide President Biden and his top advisers with an unvarnished view of the consequences of the conflict.

“He’s not afraid to call a spade a spade,” she said, “and he’s not afraid to tell policymakers that they need to address these things and play a role in the policy discussion about how to address them.”

Holmgren’s last day at the State Department is Friday, when full-time diplomat Lisa Kenna will take over as head of the office. A short-term priority will be security for the November presidential election, a senior State Department official said.

Holmgren will assume office as acting director of the NCTC on July 18.