Phillies listed as slight underdogs in series against Braves

The Philadelphia Phillies were not exactly underdogs in the 2024 series.

This is the case with the weekend series against the Atlanta Braves, which, oddly enough, is the Phils’ first visit to Georgia this season.

Based on their record alone, the Phillies should be the favorites in the series, but if you look closely at the pitcher pairings, you can at least understand why the Phils have +120 odds to win the series on DraftKings while Atlanta is favored at -140.

Friday’s opener features the best pitching matchup of the series, with Aaron Nola taking on Max Fried. This is the head-to-head matchup, and with the Phils being underdogs in the game itself with a moneyline of +114, the series odds make sense.

The Phillies have the edge on Saturday when Ranger Suarez faces rookie Spencer Schwellenbach. The Braves send Reynaldo Lopez, a potential All-Star, to face Phils rookie Michael Mercado on Sunday.

Back to Friday’s game, as this could be the best game to bet on from every perspective.

Atlanta made Nola sweat in the right-hander’s first start of the season, allowing seven earned runs on 11 hits. Five players on the Braves’ roster have hit multiple home runs against him in their careers. Austin Riley has five, Marcell Ozuna has four and Matt Olson has two.

In contrast, Max Fried didn’t make it past the first inning in his season debut against the Phillies. Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos have fantastic numbers against the Braves’ left-hander, and we all know how well the Phillies have hit against lefties this season.

If you’re watching this game using New Jersey or PA sports betting apps, I’d look at some sort of hit and/or total bases parlay with Riley, Ozuna, Turner, and Castellanos for Friday’s game.

Of course, Fried and Nola can both make plays on the mound, but they’re almost too familiar from both lineups, as we saw in the opening series in Philadelphia. Batters know exactly what Nola and Fried will throw to them and how they’ll approach each at-bat, and that can be difficult for pitchers to process. It might just be a case of survival of the fittest so that both teams don’t max out their bullpens with a rookie each this weekend.

A really compelling argument could be made that the series means more to the Braves. They are healthier and would love to narrow the Phillies’ nine-game lead atop the National League East.

If the Phillies leave Atlanta with a score of 1-2, that’s perfectly fine because they’re not losing much ground, they have a strong home record, and you could argue that the Phillies win the series with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper on the field.

It’s certainly an important series, but the division battles later in the season will be more important because you’ll know who’s on the field.