Fantasy Baseball Picks Today: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Targets, Values ​​for July 5

The pitching is better than it has ever been in baseball, but tonight’s 12 games still feel special. It almost feels like a replay of Opening Day. There are so many aces on the prize list tonight, starting with Tyler Glasnow ($10,800) at the top.

Should you pay for the Dodgers’ stud? Or should you look elsewhere? Let’s dive in.

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Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners8,300 USD – Gausman hasn’t been himself so far in 2024, as he enters this start with a 4.75 ERA and a 5.41 xERA. Still, the former Cy Young candidate has looked much better pitching outside of the Rogers Centre, posting a 2.22 ERA over the split. Gausman also continues to be an above-average source of strikeouts, with 91 in 91.0 innings and a swinging strike rate of 11.0%. Over the last two weeks, Seattle has a league-high 31.6% strikeout rate and a 74 wRC+. If Gausman can’t get that right, he could be done for.

Value

Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers7,300 USD – That’s pure upside play. We haven’t seen Baz pitch at the MLB level since 2022 due to injuries, but the former top prospect will be back in the Rays uniform on Friday. The RHP has looked decent in Triple-A with a 3.93 FIP in 10 starts, but Baz’s control issues are definitely a red flag. Still, the 25-year-old posted a 28.9% strikeout rate in his 40.1 innings with Tampa before his injury. He has what it takes to strike out batters. It’s not like Texas has been setting the world on fire lately, either. Over the past 30 days, the Rangers rank 24th in baseball in wRC+ (88).

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Sal Perez, Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies5,700 USD – Perez has been in a bit of a slump since early June, but the backstop’s overall numbers remain strong. In 346 at-bats, Perez has posted an expected slugging percentage of 96% (.546) and an expected wOBA of 94% (.378). Tonight, he will face an opposite hand matchup with Kyle Freeland ($5,000) at Coors Field. It’s not exactly a variance game, but it’s a great place.

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Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics$5,500 – I can honestly say that I don’t think I’ve ever started one of these articles by writing about two expensive catchers. Fortunately, you can use the aforementioned Perez at first base. Rutschman was fantastic across the board in 2024, but he was clearly at his best when facing a left-handed hitter. In 113 plate appearances within the split, the All-Star has a batting average of .400/.434/.629 with a wRC+ of 202. Hogan Harris ($6,300) and his 5.52 xERA should be very scary.

Value

Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers, $3,800 – Lowe has gone unnoticed in 2024. That’s partly due to another injury early in the season, but partly likely due to Tampa’s disappointing record. Still, the veteran infielder has seven home runs, a .971 OPS and a 171 wRC+ in 103 at-bats since May 26. He’s been one of the most dangerous left-handed hitters in baseball and should pose a challenge to Michael Lorenzen ($6,900) on Friday. Lorenzen, who has a 5.07 FIP, is also on the verge of regression.

Value

Brooks Lee, Minnesota Twins Comparisons Houston Astros$2,000 – That’s a salary you just have to take while you get the chance. Lee is one of the best hitting prospects in baseball and dominated Triple-A before his call-up. In 93 at-bats, Lee had seven home runs and a wOBA of .438. He’s also a switch-hitter, which gives him some nice versatility in what will be a bullpen game for the Astros. What more do you need? His price is literally at floor price.

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Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers Comparisons Milwaukee Brewers6,900 USD – What a hard break for Aaron Civale ($5,600). He has to make his Brewers debut against the Dodgers and Ohtani. Few pitchers have allowed as many home runs as Civale in 2024, with LHBs in particular averaging 1.98 per nine home runs by the RHP. Ohtani, for his part, leads the NL in home runs (27) and is in the 100th percentile in expected batting average (.335), expected slugging percentage (.674) and barrel rate (19.5%). He’s pretty good at this baseball thing.

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Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics, $4,800 – There are a few things to note about Santander. First and foremost, Santander is a switch-hitter who generally prefers to hit from the right side. This is especially true in 2024, as the outfielder has an OPS of .877 and a wRC+ of 149 against LHPs. Second, few hitters have been as good as Santander since the beginning of June. During that time period, Santander leads the MLB in home runs (13) and has a wRC+ of 160.

Value

Cedanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees$3,600 – Rafaela’s overall offensive numbers won’t blow you away, but the rookie has been in top form over the past five weeks. Since May 31, Rafaela has a batting average of .321/.351/.500 with a wRC+ of 132. That stretch includes 37 batting appearances specifically against lefties, where Rafaela has averaged .353 with a wRC+ of 170. Not too bad. At that price, it’s hard to see Rafaela in his matchup against Nestor Cortes ($8,500).

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am not eligible to participate in public DFS or DKSB contests.