The Mets will play another four-game away series, this time in Pittsburgh

The Mets (42-43) will continue one of their strangest road trips in team history this weekend with a second straight four-game series against the Pirates (41-45) at beautiful PNC Park. After blowing the chance to at least win their four-game series against the Nationals, the team will look to do better in another series against one of the many teams within reach of one of the National League’s wild card playoff spots.

Aside from yesterday’s one-hit whimper in the series finale against the Nats, the Mets’ lineup has been on fire for weeks. Since the beginning of June, Mets hitters have hit .269/.339/.493 and posted a wRC+ of 138, the best in all of baseball. By wRC+, it’s as if the entire lineup consists of Brandon Nimmo – who should be an All-Star based on his stellar play so far this season.

Over the same period since June 1, the Mets’ pitchers haven’t been quite as good, but they’re roughly in the middle of Major League Baseball with a 4.11 ERA and a 4.11 FIP, ranking them 16th and 18th in those metrics, respectively. Importantly, Edwin Díaz is back in the second game of the series after being suspended for a serious injury, as the bullpen has really struggled in his absence. If the team is desperate to stay in the playoff race, it’ll need to add relievers from outside the organization to bolster its relief ranks — or hit the jackpot with at least a couple more internal options, as it did this year with Reed Garrett and Dedniel Núñez.

As for the Pirates, their pitching has been relatively strong over the past few weeks, as the team’s 3.91 ERA is the ninth-best in the sport since June 1. However, their batting performance has been brutal. Pirates hitters have slashed .231/.289/.373 with a wRC+ of 86 during that span. That’s the fourth-lowest in baseball, bested only by the Rockies, Tigers and Marlins.

On an individual basis, Bryan Reynolds is the Pirates’ best offensive talent, with a wRC+ of 125. Joey Bart, who has only 78 at-bats, is tied with him in that metric. After those two, Andrews McCutchen (107 wRC+), Connor Joe (105 wRC+), and Nick Gonzales (103 wRC+) make up the rest of the Pirates’ hitters who have been better than the league average. Oneil Cruz, only 25 years old, is just under that mark with a wRC+ of 98.

Pittsburgh’s pitching suffered a setback when Jared Jones went on the injured list, and the team has not yet named a starter for Game 3 of this competitive series. The Mets will use 22-year-old Paul Skenes in the series opener, and the 22-year-old has a good shot at winning Rookie of the Year honors with his pitching performance since being called up to the major leagues.

It’s also worth noting that the Pirates’ starting pitchers have been much better than their bullpen. Through the 2024 season, Pittsburgh’s rotation has a 3.57 ERA, but its bullpen has a 4.55 ERA, which is the fourth-highest rate in Major League Baseball.

Entering the series, the Pirates are only 1.5 games behind the Mets in the Wild Card standings. On paper, the Mets’ chances are pretty good, even if they face Skenes in the first of those four games. But as the series against the Nationals showed, there are no guarantees in baseball.

Friday, July 5: Luis Severino vs. Paul Skenes at 6:40 p.m. EDT on SNY

Severino-Sergio (2024): 97.1 IP, 74 K, 32 BB, 9 HR, 3.42 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 88 ERA-

Severino’s last two starts have gone fairly well, as he threw 13.0 innings with 13 strikeouts, just one walk, and one home run allowed. Of the four Mets pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings this year, Severino has the best ERA and the second-best FIP. He could very well keep the Mets in the game until both starters go down.

Skenes (2024): 52.1 IP, 70 K, 10 BB, 6 HR, 2.06 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 50 ERA-

Since being called up to the major leagues, Skenes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. With countless strikeouts and hardly any walks, there is a lot to be said for the 22-year-old’s game. If he has had a weakness so far, it’s been that opposing batters occasionally hit a home run against him, and it would be beneficial for the Mets to get a home run or two against him if possible.

Saturday, July 6: David Peterson vs. Bailey Falter at 4:05 p.m. EDT on SNY

Peterson (2024): 33.1 IP, 22 K, 14 BB, 3 HR, 3.51 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 91 ERA-

After striking out 10.55 per nine, or 26.8 percent of opposing batters, over the course of the 2021 and 2022 seasons, Peterson’s strikeout rate has dropped drastically so far this year. He’s sort of managed it, but his starts have been uninspiring, and one could argue that José Buttó should be in that spot in the rotation instead.

Butterfly (2024): 88.1 IP, 59 K, 26 BB, 12 HR, 3.87 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 94 ERA-

According to ERA and ERA-, Falter has been better than league average this year, but the Mets’ lineup has a much less daunting task in the second game of the series than it did in the first. The former Phillie was much worse last year, finishing the season with a 5.36 ERA, and deserves credit for taking a step forward. But with a low strikeout rate and his vulnerability to the long ball, the Mets should be able to score some runs in the first innings of this game.

Sunday, July 7: Sean Manaea vs. TBD at 1:35 p.m. EDT on SNY

Manaea (2024): 83.1 IP, 81 K, 36 BB, 7 HR, 3.67 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 95 ERA-

Manaea is the Mets’ second-best pitcher to have pitched at least 50 innings this year. He’s had a nice streak of four starts in his last few games. In 22.2 innings against the Padres, Rangers, Yankees and Nationals, he had a 1.99 ERA with 21 strikeouts, 11 walks and one home run allowed. It would have been nice to see fewer walks – as is the case with the entire Mets pitching staff – but he’s been good.

Monday, July 8: Christian Scott vs. Mitch Keller at 12:35 EDT on SNY

Scott (2024): 33.1 IP, 27 K, 8 BB, 4 HR, 4.32 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 111 ERA-

Scott’s start against the Nationals was going well until it stopped working, and the home run he hit late in the game pushed his major league ERA up quite a bit. Still, it was far from a bad start in his return from a temporary demotion to Triple-A Syracuse, and it’s a good thing to see him playing regularly at the major league level.

Cellar (2024): 103.1 IP, 96 K, 27 BB, 10 HR, 3.48 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 84 ERA-

Keller’s game hasn’t changed all that much in recent years, but his ERA so far has been better than in any of his previous full major league seasons. He’s a respectable major league starter, and there’s nothing wrong with that.