Small Cap Value Report (Friday, July 5, 2024) – SPA Brief: SIS

Futures on IG are currently showing little to no change (FTSE 100 up 17 points, Pound Sterling unchanged at 1 Pound = 1.276 Dollars) as markets price in high probability events in advance. Only big surprises upset the markets – who can forget the Brexit vote when the stock and currency markets went completely haywire – I remember it vividly – even some FTSE 100 stocks collapsed, and (briefly) there were NO There were buy orders on the books for some mid and large caps at all (so technically a bid price of zero!) – that’s the danger of stop losses when something big and unexpected happens – that day well-calculated traders made and lost fortunes.

I will not be making any adjustments to my portfolio as I don’t think much will change in the near future. I reckon the general trend will be similar to 1997 – lots of new hidden taxes but probably no big changes to the main taxes (if Labour keeps its promises). I know a lot of wealthy/rich friends are worried about potential tax raids on capital gains tax, inheritance tax etc. One has even emigrated to a tax haven! Will AIM’s IHT relief survive? Will pensions be raided? I was very worried about reintroducing the Lifetime Allowance so I wrote to Rachel Reeves explaining why that would be a mistake and that proposal was dropped. Maybe my letter is not cause and effect but hopefully my voice has influenced others to say the same? It’s always worth writing to people in positions of power because it seems that out of 200 people who agree on something only one actually writes a letter. I also like to send a letter because they are likely to receive very few (people prefer emails, which are easier to ignore). The same goes for letters to company executives – a letter will stand out and likely be read by the chairman/CEO, whereas an email is unlikely to reach them directly.

What’s next for government spending? Well, more public spending, but…