Hezbollah poses a serious threat to Israel

As the INTENSITY As fighting in Gaza subsides, an even more dangerous conflagration looms on Israel’s northern border. Since the day after Hamas’s October 7 attack, Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militia based in Lebanon, has bombarded northern Israel with rocket and drone attacks. Fires have burned thousands of hectares of land and 70,000 evacuated Israelis have been unable to return to their homes. The Israel Defense Forces (idf) have struck back, driving 90,000 Lebanese out of the south of the country. On July 3, they assassinated a prominent Hezbollah leader. Open war could become one of the biggest conflicts in the region in decades. Israel has no good answer to the Hezbollah threat. That means it should try to avoid war today and focus instead on rebuilding deterrence.

The Hezbollah threat is not new, but it is more serious than ever. By rendering parts of the north uninhabitable, the militia has put Israel in an impossible position. Understandably, Israelis are outraged by the presence of an enemy on their borders planning Hamas-style attacks. Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 2006, aimed at pushing Hezbollah away from the border, led to a bloody 34-day war that, from Israel’s perspective, actually weakened the militia. Now some politicians are calling for another invasion, warning that Gaza will look like a “paradise” compared to Lebanon when it ends.