Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers

After a solid start to the week in Denver, the Brewers will move further west to face the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers and Brewers have nearly identical records heading into the weekend, with the Dodgers at 53-34 and the Brewers at 52-35, pending Thursday night’s results.

Shohei Ohtani is the most notable injury for the Dodgers, although he is still available as a hitter. He won’t pitch for LA until 2025. Mookie Betts, who had gotten off to a good start, broke his hand in mid-June and won’t play again until August, while pitchers Walker Buehler, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw, Brusdar Graterol and Joe Kelly are all out as well. Max Muncy will also miss this series as he recovers from a strained right oblique that is expected to keep him out of action until mid- or late-July.

Ohtani leads a strong Dodgers offense as he is batting .319/.401/.642 with 27 home runs, 64 RBIs, 70 runs and 16 steals in 84 games. With Betts out, Teoscar Hernández, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith have picked up the pace. Hernández is second on the team with 19 home runs and 59 RBIs and is batting .254/.316/.486 in 85 games, while Freeman is playing a little worse than usual, batting 13 home runs, 56 RBIs and .302/.404/.516 in 87 games. Smith is batting .268/.339/.463 with 11 home runs and 50 RBIs in 72 games.

Other key offensive players include Kike Hernández, Andy Pages, Wisconsin native Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas, Chris Taylor and Jason Heyward. As a team, the Dodgers rank near the top of the league in runs (third), home runs (third), batting average (fifth), on-base percentage (first), slugging (second) and OPS (second).

The Dodgers’ bullpen is bolstered by Alex Vesia and Daniel Hudson, who lead the team with 36 and 35 appearances respectively. Vesia has a 1.43 ERA and 48 strikeouts in 37 ²⁄₃ innings, while Hudson had an ERA of 1.82 and 38 strikeouts in 34 ²⁄₃ innings. Evan Phillips leads the team in saves with a perfect 13 of 13, an ERA of 2.10 and 27 strikeouts in 25 ²⁄₃ innings. Ryan Yarbrough (24 appearances, 3.27 ERA), Blake Treinen (21 appearances, 2.89 ERA), Yohan Ramírez (20 appearances, 3.63 ERA), Anthony Banda (17 appearances, 0.95 ERA) and Michael Petersen (six appearances, 4.66 ERA) also work out of the bullpen. As a team, the Dodgers rank fourth in team ERA, including eighth in starter ERA and third in reliever ERA.

Probable pitchers

Friday, July 5, 9:10 p.m.: Aaron Civale (2-6, 5.07 ERA, 4.69 FIP) vs. Tyler Glasnow (8-5, 3.23 ERA, 2.69 FIP)

Civale, the newest Brewer, has made two solid starts in his last two games with the Rays, hitting a total of 10 ²⁄₃ innings, allowing three runs on nine hits and five walks with five strikeouts against the Pirates and Nationals. He had a rough season, posting a 5.07 ERA in 17 starts. This will be his first career appearance against the Dodgers.

Like Civale, Glasnow was acquired by the Rays and moved to LA last offseason. He had a solid first season with the Dodgers, posting a 3.23 ERA with 136 strikeouts in 103 innings (17 starts). In June, he had two starts with five runs, but also three starts with an earned run or less. His last outing was against the Giants, when he allowed five runs in just three innings, his shortest start of the season. In six appearances (two starts) against Milwaukee, he has a record of 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 14 ²⁄₃ innings.

Saturday, July 6, 6:15 p.m.: Freddy Peralta (6-4, 3.83 ERA, 3.54 FIP) vs. James Paxton (7-2, 4.28 ERA, 4.85 FIP)

Peralta, who has had an up-and-down season, has made three solid starts, allowing just three runs in his final 18 innings with 22 strikeouts, dropping his ERA to 3.83 on the season. Against the Dodgers, he was a threat with a 1.80 ERA and 21 strikeouts in four starts (20 innings).

Paxton, now playing with his fourth team, has had a solid career and has bounced back this season after a rough few years with the Dodgers. In 15 starts, he has a 4.28 ERA with 53 strikeouts in 75 ²⁄₃ innings. His ERA rose by nearly a full run in his last start, as he allowed nine runs on 12 hits and two walks in four innings against the Giants. Although he has pitched against 28 teams in his career, Paxton has never pitched against Milwaukee.

Sunday, July 7, 3:10 p.m.: Dallas Keuchel (0-0, 6.75 ERA, vs. Bobby Miller (1-1, 6.12 ERA, 5.56 FIP)

Like Paxton, Keuchel is a migrant worker who is now with his seventh team and fifth in three years. In two starts with Milwaukee, he has allowed seven runs in 9 ¹⁄₃ innings with nine strikeouts. Last time against the Rockies, he was solid, allowing two runs on four hits and two walks over 5 ¹⁄₃ innings. Keuchel, who spent most of his career in the AL, has never played against the Dodgers.

The Dodgers have not yet announced a starter for the series finale, but if they follow their current rotation plan, Miller would be the starter. Miller is having a difficult sophomore season, making just six starts after missing significant time with an injury. He looked solid against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, allowing two runs on four hits and three walks with four strikeouts in five innings. He has faced Milwaukee once, allowing one run in six innings with four strikeouts in a win last season.

forecast

The Brewers haven’t won a series in Los Angeles against the Dodgers since 2019. They went 1-8 at Dodger Stadium during the regular season and won two games against LA in the 2020 playoffs. Still, this Brewers team seems to be in better shape than in recent years. Still, I’m predicting the Brewers will lose two of three games before heading home to face the Pirates and Nationals.