Euro 2024: Chris Sutton’s quarter-final predictions
Only eight teams remain at the 2024 European Championship, but who will make it to the final on July 14 in Berlin?
BBC Sport football expert Chris Sutton was pretty accurate with his predictions for the Round of 16. The only results he got wrong were Switzerland’s win against Italy and Turkey’s victory against Austria.
Turkey also surprised most of you – of the more than 95,000 votes cast, only 12% voted for the country to advance – but you were right in your assessment of the outcome of the other seven duels.
That’s a huge improvement on your record in the group stage and means that, like Sutton, you were right in 22 of the 44 games played in Germany.
- Author, Chris Bevan
- Role, BBC sports journalist in Berlin
Will there be any more surprises in the quarter-finals? Make your predictions below, including England vs Switzerland and France – Sutton’s favourite to win the Euros – vs Portugal.
QUARTER FINALS
FRIDAY, JULY 5
Spain vs Germany
Spain is the best team in the competition.
Germany celebrated when Niclas Füllkrug equalised in injury time in their final group match against Switzerland, but they will be disappointed that it has put them in this group. I am sure they would rather play against England.
But Germany is not just the host. The team also has a lot to offer. Antonio Rüdiger was probably the best central defender in this tournament.
They are a balanced team, but Spain stand out and have quality and brains everywhere you look.
Rodri and Fabian Ruiz dominate the ball in midfield and have Pedri’s intelligence in front of them. On the wings they have Lamine Yamal, such an exciting talent, and Nico Williams, who is impossible to stop in one-on-one situations.
So Spain will be hard to stop. If you can criticise them for anything at this European Championship, it is that they were not ruthless enough, but in terms of performance, they were head and shoulders above everyone else.
This makes it very difficult to play against them here, even though Germany has the home advantage and is playing well.
Portugal vs France
I really don’t understand why Portugal coach Roberto Martinez spoils Cristiano Ronaldo so much.
We know what a great player Ronaldo has been in the past and that he can still influence games, but you have to draw the line when it’s clear that he’s having a negative impact on the team.
For example, why does Ronaldo take free kicks one after another when there are much better options? It’s selfish of him and he has a huge ego, but why does Martinez allow it? The bigger mistake is his and he should be strong enough to do what’s best for the team.
I might embarrass myself if Portugal wins the tournament and Ronaldo scores a couple of 35-yard free kicks along the way, but I don’t think that’s going to happen.
In 300 years people will probably still be talking about what a genius Ronaldo was, but he’s 39 and I don’t know what Martinez expects from him. Football has always been a team sport and to rely on him like that is absolutely ridiculous considering how much quality Portugal have throughout their team.
I had already picked France to win Euro 2024 before kick-off and I’m not going to change my mind now. They weren’t exactly exciting in the round of 16 against Belgium, but there were signs of them coming alive and they look very solid defensively.
France have only scored three goals in their first four games in Germany – two own goals and a penalty – but I expect them to score points here.
I’m covering this game for Radio 5 Live. My other prediction is that Ronaldo will take seven free kicks – and none of them will be on target.
SATURDAY, JULY 6
England vs Switzerland
Switzerland are also a balanced team. They believe in their style of play and seem to be getting stronger as the tournament progresses, as seen in their win against Italy in the round of 16.
I had hung my hat on Italy, thinking that the defending champions would eventually get going – similar to what I did with England – but they didn’t play well and that was largely due to the dominance of the Swiss.
There are many similarities with this tie, but I don’t think England will be steamrolled like Italy. I’m not blindly backing Gareth Southgate’s side because they deserved to beat Slovakia – almost – and maybe a moment like Jude Bellingham’s equaliser can change the mood of their tournament.
There are still many areas where England need to improve. I hate their lack of balance on the left. Luke Shaw hasn’t played a single minute of the tournament and that was a risk that manager Southgate got completely wrong.
There’s no point dwelling on that at the moment. It’s just about getting through this game and England can do that.
I still want to see Cole Palmer start at right guard because he offers something different creatively and seems so confident, but it’s pretty obvious that’s not going to happen.
We will see a change in defense because Marc Guehi is suspended and Ezri Konsa will probably come in, which is fine, but that will be it.
I don’t expect England to perform much differently than we have seen so far.
England are a team of small parts and will not suddenly turn into a team like Spain that plays beautiful football. But they have so much talent that they should still be superior to the Swiss.
Netherlands vs Türkiye
What a game Turkey played against Austria in the round of 16.
I’m covering this quarter-final for Radio 5 Live and I’m looking forward to seeing Turkey and their fans in Berlin – their supporters have contributed so much to this tournament.
I liked the way Turkey fought to the finish line against Austria – and did so without their captain Hakan Calhanoglu, who was suspended for that game but will be back for this one.
Mert Günok’s incredible stoppage time save will be one people will talk about for years to come and I guess he will now be known as the ‘Turkish Gordon Banks’.
There were many reasons why I expected Austria to win, but Turkey were much better organised defensively than I thought, and that was thanks to their coach Vincenzo Montella. They were always dangerous on the counterattack too.
The only problem is that they all gave so much in this game. Turkey will have to give their all again to beat the Netherlands and that is a big challenge.
The “Oranje Army” was also outstanding, so the atmosphere in the Olympic Stadium should be fantastic.
I’m still not completely convinced by the Dutch team. They beat Romania quite easily last time, but we don’t really know how good Romania is.
The Netherlands are the clear favourites here, however. With players like Nathan Ake and Virgil van Dijk in defence and Cody Gakpo and Xavi Simons in attack, they have quality all over the pitch.
Memphis Depay misses so many chances he reminds me of me when I played for Chelsea, but he moves excellently and does a lot of good work for the team.
It will be close, but no Turkish delight is predicted, instead a double goal from the Dutch will take them through.
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