Democratic women’s voter turnout could drop if Michigan doesn’t vote on abortion law • Michigan Advance
Reproductive rights advocates in Michigan could become victims of their own success in the Democratic primary in November.
A new poll of female voters released Thursday by KFF, a nonprofit organization for health policy research, opinion polls and newsshows that reproductive rights increase Democratic women’s willingness to vote in states with possible abortion-related ballot initiatives. However, in states like Michigan, where voters enshrined abortion rights in the state constitution in 2022, women are less motivated to vote.
“Democratic voters in states where there may be popular initiatives are more motivated to vote, even though they are no more satisfied with President (Joe) Biden’s job performance than Democratic voters in states without similar initiatives – a sign that the issues at stake may be attracting interest,” it said in a press release.
This could mean trouble for Biden and the other Democrats in these states in November, as they expect a high turnout among their supporters.
The KFF national poll of women voters and companion surveys in Arizona and Michigan were conducted online and by phone in English and Spanish from May 23 to June 5 among a nationally representative sample of 3,102 registered U.S. voters. Separate samples of 928 registered voters in Arizona and 876 registered voters in Michigan were also surveyed, with margins of error ranging from 3% to 5%.
Abortion initiatives increase voter turnout
KFF says that by 18 June there will be up to 11 states where voters may decide on abortion access in November, including four states where abortion is already scheduled to be on the ballot.
In these states, more than half (53%) of Democratic voters in the national poll said they were more motivated to vote this year than in past elections. In other states, however, an even higher percentage (57%) said they were just as motivated or less motivated to vote this year than in past elections.
In the state-specific surveys, the KFF found even greater differences in the number of motivated female voters.
In Michigan, where a constitutional amendment protecting abortion access was passed in 2022, 60% of female voters – including 69% of Democratic voters – say they are primarily focused on inflation because the issue of abortion access has already been resolved in their state – an issue that President Biden is struggling with with his Democratic base.
In contrast, in Arizona, where an anti-abortion amendment is likely to be on the ballot in November, 60 percent of Democratic voters – and 74 percent of all voters under 30 – say that putting the initiative on the ballot would make them more motivated to vote.
Another potentially bad sign for Democrats is that in states like Michigan, where there is no abortion initiative on the ballot, 80 percent of Republican voters say they will definitely vote in November, while only 72 percent of Democratic voters plan to do the same. By comparison, in states with potential ballot initiatives, Republican and Democratic voters are about evenly represented (82 percent and 83 percent, respectively).
Priorities for female voters
When it comes to the issues that women voters say will have the greatest impact on their vote, inflation tops the list. Four in 10 women said it is the most important issue in the 2024 presidential race. Only about one in five (22%) said threats to democracy are the most important issue for them. The top five are immigration and border security (13%), abortion (10%) and gun policy (4%).
And while inflation is a top voting issue for many key groups of female voters – including black women, Latino women, younger women, Democratic women and Republican women overall – party affiliation and age play a role in how an issue is prioritized.
While more than a third of older Republican women cite immigration (36%) and inflation (37%) as their top issues, half of older Democratic women say “threats to democracy” are the top issue determining their voting decision. In fact, Democratic women overall are more likely than Republican and independent women to say that threats to democracy are their top voting issue.
Biden in Michigan
In Michigan, 74 percent of Democratic voters surveyed were satisfied with Biden’s performance overall, although there were some cracks on individual issues.
While overwhelming majorities approved of his handling of student loan repayment (78%), abortion and reproductive health issues (76%), health care affordability (75%), and immigration and border security (65%), the issues of inflation and Biden’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas were significantly less popular.
Only 53% expressed a positive opinion on inflation and only 47% on the Gaza issue. This means that more democratic women disapproved of his work performance than approved of it.
But as the poll found, inflation is a key issue that could drive Democratic women to the polls in November if an abortion initiative is not on the ballot.
Project 2025
What the survey did not ask was whether voters were aware Project 2025a blueprint for a second Trump term in the White House, created by the far-right Heritage Foundation.
In addition to the detailed plans to comprehensively strengthen the executive power, including The document also calls for the use of the US military to suppress domestic protests, the dissolution of the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security, and the elimination of sexual and gender discrimination: national abortion banwhich, if passed by Congress, would override all state-level protections.
If Trump is elected, he could simply issue an executive order to revitalize the Comstock Act, an obscure anti-obscenity law from 1873, and the ban on the shipping of abortion pills such as mifepristone – the most commonly used method of abortion in the USA
Senate election in Michigan
The poll also asked Michigan voters who they would vote for if the 2024 Senate elections in Michigan were held today. The candidates would be Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin and Republican former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers.
45 percent said they would vote for Slotkin, who supports Abortion rightswhile only 30% said they would vote for Rogers, who opposes abortion rights and is WKAR’s “Off the Record” In March 2023, he probably would not have voted yes to the constitutional amendment on reproductive rights..
Slotkin is running against Detroit actor Hill Harper in the Democratic primary in August, while Rogers is running against former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash (I-Cascade Twp.), physician Sherry O’Donnell and businessman Sandy Pensler in the Republican primary.
Other important findings
Two-thirds (67%) of voters identify as supporting abortion freedom, and three in four (74%) say they want abortion to be legal in at least some cases, although party affiliation plays a large role in determining support for specific measures. For example, while 57% of Republican voters support a national ban on abortions after 15 weeks, 89% of Democratic and 74% of independent voters support a law guaranteeing a national right to abortion.
Some policies are popular with voters of all party lines. For example, Democratic, independent, and Republican voters consistently support laws that guarantee access to abortion for patients in pregnancy-related emergencies and a federal law that protects access to abortion in all states in cases of rape or incest.
While most women who voted in 2020 say they will vote for the same candidate this year, about one in six women who voted for President Biden in 2020 say they will either not vote this year or will vote for a different candidate, including 7% who say they plan to vote for former President Donald Trump. In contrast, just 1% of women voters who voted for Trump in 2020 say they plan to vote for Biden in 2024.
To help Biden win, he would need to win a strong majority of black women voters, a group he won overwhelmingly in 2020. Currently, national polling shows that a majority of black women voters say they plan to vote for President Biden in November (70%), although one in six (17%) say they will either stay home or vote for a third-party candidate on Election Day. For half of black women (53%), inflation is the most important issue determining their voting decision, and many (55%) disapprove of how Biden has handled the issue as president.
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