Nick Chubb – Valuable back after injury?

All about the NFL

03 July 2024

Valuable back after an injury?

There’s an update circulating this week on Nick Chubb. The Cleveland star tore several ligaments in his knee last September and underwent multiple surgeries. It’s fair to say he won’t be drafted as a starter; no one expects him to play early in the season. But let’s play devil’s advocate for a minute.

The Browns haven’t acted like a team in the offseason that believes it won’t get its franchise back for a large portion of the season. They let Kareem Hunt go and signed D’Onta Foreman for nearly the veteran minimum, with minimal guarantees. They have Jerome Ford, but he was pretty mediocre a year ago, averaging 4.0 yards per carry and not being used much in goal-line situations and not being great in the passing game (44 receptions but a troubling 9 drops). Pierre Strong wasn’t used much a year ago. Nyheim Hines also makes little money and may have been signed for returns rather than an offensive role.

Even if you leave all that aside, Chubb has impressed those close to the team with his recovery so far. Sports reporter Mary Kay Cabot says, “Chubb’s new running backs coach this offseason told me he’d never seen anyone recover so quickly from a torn ACL. He said it’s possible Chubb could be ready for the Sept. 8 opener against the Cowboys.”

Cabot continued, “We all know Chubb wants to be in uniform for the opening game to set the tone for the season, but it’s more important that he’s healthy for the playoffs at the end. I could see the Browns playing him actively in Week 1 partly for the emotional boost, but maybe not letting him play much or not at all. A lot will depend on what he can do in training camp and the preseason, but don’t bet against Chubb, who is superhuman.”

In short, while Week 1 seems pretty unlikely, the prospect of Chubb not ending up on the PUP list at least early in the season is more reasonable. Considering how late Chubb will be selected (he was selected in Round 8 in our Expert Magazine Draft), there is potential value.

Surely he’ll be in a running back-friendly offense once he gets back on the field. Even last year, when Chubb missed all but two games and the team wasn’t running the ball effectively, the Browns were patient. The team’s running backs — just running backs, not counting quarterback runs or wide receivers — carried the ball a combined 430 times last year. That was more than all but two teams, even though they combined to average 3.92 yards per attempt (worse than all but 10 teams).

Let me be clear: I don’t expect Chubb to be able to play in Week 1 even if he doesn’t go on the PUP list. They’ll slowly bring him back, and at least for the first few games, it should be more of a committee.

But the season is still over 2 months away and all reports on Chubb are positive. He is definitely their best running back and whether or not he gets a dozen starts to play, I think we can say with some certainty that Chubb will be the running back of choice when the ball is inside the 5-yard line in those games. Other running backs selected in the Chubb range are Devin Singletary and Brian Robinson. Of those three, Chubb seems the most likely to lead a playoff offense in the second half of the season, even if he performed dramatically better in September.

Generally, I won’t pick Chubb too early or anything. I’m cautious about injuries and optimistic about July. But he’s no longer on my Do Not Draft list and I’m also staying away from Ford and Foreman. Chubb could be the best running back on this team sooner than many expect. He’s a guy to watch in August.

–Andy Richardson