Arthur Smith will use play-action: Can Russell Wilson and Justin Fields succeed with this?

I’ve been thinking a lot about how the Pittsburgh Steelers might utilize play-action in the 2024 season. That thought led me to dig a little deeper into some related advanced analytics and statistics for new quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.

Our own Clayton Eckert touched on this topic somewhat in his study of Wilson and Fields’ effectiveness with and without play-action back in March, but that post focused primarily on the Pro Football Focus ratings for both. However, I wanted to look at some advanced stats and metrics for the two quarterbacks over the past two seasons and here’s what I found.

My first deep statistical dive into play-action was for the 2023 regular season. Specifically, the EPA totals and bust percentages on the plays where it occurred. I graphed the results of the top 25 quarterbacks on play-action pass attempts in 2023.

As a refresher, below are Sports Info Solutions’ definitions of EPA and chest percentage:

EPA: Added Expected Points; the total change in the offensive’s expected points resulting from the player’s passes

Bust %: The percentage of pass attempts that resulted in an EPA of less than minus 1 (i.e. a very unsuccessful play for the offense)

As you can see in the scatter plot below, which uses data compiled by SIS, neither Wilson nor Fields compare well to the top 25 players in play-action pass attempts in 2023. Both had negative EPA numbers and both had a bust percentage of nearly 15 percent.

After looking at the 2023 data, I wanted to compare it to the 2022 regular season, again using the top 25 quarterbacks in total play-action pass attempts. As you can see in this scatter plot below, Wilson and Fields also fared unfavorably this season.

After looking at two seasons of data, I thought it might be appropriate to look at both Wilson and Fields over the last two seasons, when both used play-action and when they didn’t. This time, I plotted just Wilson and Fields and used EPA per PA (Expected Points Added per Pass Attempt) on one axis in addition to bust percentages. This resulted in me needing four plot points for each quarterback.

If you look at this particular scatterplot of 2022 and 2023 data for attempts with and without play-action, you’ll notice that both quarterbacks overall not only have bust percentages of nearly 15 percent or more, but also negative EPA/Att stats. Despite this, both quarterbacks’ use of play-action in both 2022 and 2023 ranked higher than without play-action, particularly in bust percentages. Fields’ 2022 season, in which he didn’t use play-action, is the big outlier in this chart.

So what did the overall stats look like for Wilson and Fields in 2022 and 2023 when play-action was used and not? I also have those from SIS to share in this post and they are listed below.

Of the four sets for Wilson and Fields, what stands out most is that Wilson did not have a great play-action season in 2022. The four interceptions he had this season using play-action matched the number of touchdown passes he threw. The nine sacks also stood out in 2022, on just eight more dropbacks than in 2023 when he used play-action. Wilson’s ANY/A (Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt) stats in 2022 using play-action reflect the sacks, interceptions, and lack of touchdown passes. Wilson rebounded in 2023, at least in terms of pure passing stats, using play-action.

As for Fields, we have much more consistent raw stats for him over the course of the last two seasons, both for using play-action and not using it. His jump in ANY/A when using play-action over the last two seasons is perhaps the most encouraging result when looking at just his raw stats on drop-backs. However, look at the number of sacks Fields has taken in each of the last two seasons when using play-action. These certainly didn’t contribute to his bust percentage, which the charts earlier in this post focused on. However, they do help explain those percentages.

Both Wilson and Fields have been sacked far too often over the past two seasons and the Steelers will likely work hard to change that in 2024.

All in all, this study at least gives us a clear look at what Wilson and Fields have done on play-action over the past two seasons. It will be interesting to compare 2024’s play-action stats over the course of the regular season to those in this post.