Will it be No. 1 next week?

Daniel Prakopyk

The candidates is a weekday column that looks at artists who have risen to the top of the Billboard diagrams and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 July 13), one of the year’s most successful artists hopes to take a post-July 4 victory lap with his first crossover hit.

Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): While established superstars like Taylor Swift and Kendrick Lamar and emerging phenoms like Sabrina Carpenter and Tommy Richman have all made their big appearances on the Hot 100 over the past two and a half months, one artist has consistently lurked in the background and slowly gained momentum: Shaboozey. The country singer-songwriter, who made his Hot 100 debut earlier this year with two guest appearances on Beyoncé’s acclaimed Cowboy Carter Album, entered the charts in April with “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” and shot to number 3 in May before fading into the background as the charts seemed to be littered with new huge hits every week.

But now, the breakthrough is closer than ever, with “Bar Song” hitting a new high of No. 2 on the chart this week, with the song continuing to stream and sell very well — especially the latter, as it’s in its seventh week at the top of Digital Song Sales. And it still has room to rise at radio, where it’s climbed up the Radio Songs chart (8-7 this week) and continues to gain momentum across all formats — including country radio, where it rose 17-12 on Country Airplay. (If it hits the top 10 of that chart next week, it will be the first song to reach that level in each of the following categories. Billboard‘s Country Airplay, Pop Airplay, Adult Pop Airplay and Rhythmic Airplay charts.)

The song’s momentum was helped by a big showing at the BET Awards on Sunday (June 30), where Shaboozey became one of the rare country acts to perform a full song on Culture’s Biggest Night — and used the opportunity to sing the song with a party-opening rendition that also featured a guest appearance from St. Louis rapper J-Kwon, whose 2004 classic “Tipsy” heavily influenced the song. With the race already looking to get tight, any amount of streaming or sales boost from this performance could be enough to push “A Bar Song” to the top of the Hot 100 next week.

Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help” (Mercury/Big Loud/republic): Post Malone may finally be on his way to overcoming the hugely successful first taste of his long-promised country turn, with the release of his second single from his upcoming F-1 billion set, the Blake Shelton collaboration “Pour Me a Drink.” This song also got off to a strong start on the Hot 100, peaking at number 12, matching Shelton’s previous high on the list (with 2013’s “Boys ‘Round Here,” featuring Pistol Annies & Friends).

Its predecessor, “I Had Some Help,” is far from over, however, as it returns to the top of the Hot 100 this week, making it six total appearances at the top—while also topping the Radio Songs chart for the first time. Stream counts are starting to fade a bit, though, as the song slips 2-4 on Streaming Songs this week. So it’ll likely need to either continue to gain popularity at radio—it hits the top 5 on both Pop Airplay and Adult Pop Airplay this week—or gain some momentum at the Fourth of July barbecue to overtake Shaboozey and secure a seventh week at the top of the chart next week.

IN THE MIX

Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso” and “Please, Please, Please” (Iceland): She may be done with the No. 1 spot for now after “Please Please Please” earned her first spot atop the Hot 100 a week ago, but both that song and “Espresso” remain steady hits for Sabrina Carpenter, ranking at No. 4 and No. 5 on the Hot 100 this week, respectively, with major streaming profiles. “Espresso” has also long established itself at radio, breaking into the top five radio songs this week, but may soon have to make way for “Please” as well, as that song is the Hot 100’s top airplay gainer this week, debuting at No. 24 on Pop Airplay (with the help of radio edits that replaced the end of the signature lyric “don’t embarrass me, motherf–ker” with “mother trucker” and/or “little sucker”).

Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Baby!” (KRA/Amusement/Island): Chappell Roan has diversified her Hot 100 takeover over the past month: She now has five different songs currently climbing the chart, with “Casual” (No. 82) joining “Pink Pony Club” (No. 66), “Red Wine Supernova” (No. 46), “Hot To Go!” (No. 38) and “Good Luck Babe” (No. 11) this week. She hasn’t reached the chart’s top 10 yet — but that may change next week, as “Babe” continues to grow on both the DSPs (in the Streaming Songs top 10 this week) and the radio airwaves (Nos. 19-17 on Pop Airplay).

GloRilla, “TGIF” (CMG/Interscope/ICLG): Rihanna doesn’t record or release songs as frequently as she once did, but that doesn’t mean she’s lost her talent as a hitmaker — she’s now just making waves off of other artists’ songs. GloRilla’s latest single, “TGIF,” exploded on social media and streaming this past weekend after RiRi posted a video of herself rapping along to the song to a stern-looking A$AP Rocky — and now it looks like it’s on track to become her third major hit of the year, following “Yeah Glo!” and the Megan Thee Stallion collaboration “Wanna Be.” The song is unlikely to break into the top 10 next week, but if it keeps up the pace, it could be in the running soon — especially if Rihanna ever releases a remix of the song.