Positive global trade trends in Q1; goods trade value increases by 1% quarter-on-quarter: UNCTAD

Global trade trends developed positively in the first quarter (Q1) of this year, with the value of trade in goods increasing by around 1 percent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), according to the United Nations Trade and Development Organization (UNCTAD).

This recovery, driven by positive trade dynamics between the United States and developing countries, especially major Asian countries, is expected to result in an increase in merchandise trade of about $250 billion in the first half of this year compared to the second half of 2023, according to UNCTAD’s Global Trade Update report.

Global trade trends turned positive in the first quarter of 2024, with the value of goods trade increasing by around 1 percent compared to the previous quarter, according to a report by UNCTAD. This upturn is driven by positive trade dynamics for the US and developing countries, especially the major ones in Asia. If the positive trends continue, global trade could reach almost $32 trillion this year.

Forecasts for global gross domestic product (GDP) growth remain at around 3 percent this year and the short-term trade outlook is cautiously optimistic.

If positive trends continue, global trade could reach nearly $32 trillion this year, although it is unlikely to surpass the record high set in 2022.

World trade growth in the first quarter of 2024 was mainly due to increased exports from China (9 percent), India (7 percent) and the USA (3 percent). European exports, on the other hand, recorded no growth and African exports fell by 5 percent.

Trade in developing countries and South-South trade increased by about 2 percent in both imports and exports in the first quarter. In comparison, developed countries recorded stagnant imports and a modest increase of 1 percent in exports.

However, on an annual basis, South-South trade declined by 5 percent when comparing the first quarter of 2023 with the first quarter of 2024.

Trade growth varied considerably across sectors, with green energy and artificial intelligence products seeing stronger increases.

Despite these positive trends, the outlook for 2024 is clouded by potential geopolitical issues and impacts on industrial policy. Geopolitical tensions, rising transport costs and new industrial policies could change global trade patterns, according to a UNCTAD press release on the report.

The report warns that increasing concentration on domestic industries and trade restrictions could hamper international trade growth.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)