Lebanon-Israel conflict: All four main actors want to avoid war

July 3, 2024

Oded Ilam, a former high-ranking Mossad official, recently spoke on Arel Segal’s 103FM radio show about the consequences of Biden’s failure against Donald Trump in the recent presidential debate and the possible escalation in the north.

Ilam began by saying: “The Americans, although I do not believe they are anti-Israel, continue to misunderstand the situation we are in. Biden and his administration have their hearts in the right place. The famous ‘warning’ that Biden gave to the Iranians did not move them at all. They attacked Israel anyway, and the American response was for the administration to express condolences for Raisi’s death. The American administration repeatedly shows weakness, which is also reflected in the ongoing negotiations.”

“Every time Hamas does not accept an agreement with Israel, we are forced to take two more steps back. I can hardly imagine a situation in which Hamas will allow us to work out another agreement that does not include withdrawal from the Philadelphia Corridor,” Ilam noted. “I can assume that when America is weak, the axis will become stronger. This confrontation is very significant. I saw Biden’s performance in Atlanta, where he was different from the recent debate. He was excellent. The same team that advised him to participate in the debate is exactly the same team that shapes American policy.”

U.S. President Joe Biden participates in the first presidential debate hosted by CNN in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S., June 27, 2024. (Source: REUTERS/MARCO BELLO)

Conflicting parties between Israel and Lebanon want to avoid war

Ilam added: “The situation between Israel and Lebanon is interesting. All four main actors, the US, Lebanon, Hezbollah and Israel, do not want war. The one who wants war the least is Nasrallah, who entered the situation in a very difficult position, both economically and in terms of his legitimacy in Lebanon itself.”

“None of the four actors want a war. Nasrallah is waiting for the moment when Sinwar signs an agreement. I think they are sending him messages to urge him to sign. Even if this does not happen, the chance of a full-scale war decreases in favor of an agreement. Is an agreement good for Israel given the current situation? That is another question,” Ilam concluded.

Edited by Michal Kedosh for Radio 103FM.