With a new winger in Arizona, is Kyler Murray a draft value?

Kyler Murray’s career has been polarizing. On the one hand, he has missed 18 games in the last three seasons, has a winning percentage of .438 and has never reached 4,000 passing yards or 30 passing touchdowns in a season. On the other hand, he was named Offensive Rookie of the Year, was nominated for consecutive Pro Bowls and has never finished behind QB12 in fantasy points per game. Given the influx of young offensive talent in Arizona – especially fourth-round pick Marvin Harrison Jr. – now might be the time to re-sell the Cardinals’ quarterback for 2024.

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A new wingman

After DeAndre Hopkins left for Tennessee last season, Murray was left with tight end Trey McBride as his top target and Greg Dortch as his top wideout in 2023. His 18.3 fantasy points per game were barely enough for QB10 in a largely disappointing season. The year before, Murray only played four games with Hopkins (as both battled injuries) and had to rely on Hollywood Brown for most of the games he played.

Over the course of his five seasons, Murray has played a total of 28 games with Hopkins and a total of 35 games without him (excluding games in which fewer than half the snaps were played). In seven fewer games with Hopkins in the lineup, he has scored 49. more fantasy pointsand averaged a massive 24.2 points per game in those games (without him it was only 18.0).

*Excludes games in which either player played less than 50% of the snaps.

While the improved passing stats aren’t surprising, it’s also worth noting that Murray’s running numbers were much better with his All-Pro wideout in the lineup. In those 28 games with Hopkins, he averaged 10 more yards per game on the ground and scored 17 running TDs — nearly double the nine he scored in the other 35 games. The presence of a true weapon on the outside clearly changes the entire landscape of the Arizona offense and Murray’s potential as a fantasy star.

Enter Marvin Harrison Jr.

Considered one of the best wide receiver prospects of the last decade, if not the best ever, Harrison was an absolute slam dunk pick for Arizona at the top of the 2024 draft. When the selection was announced, NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah had this to say about the impact on the Cardinals:

“That’s a big-time playmaker. You need quality players that can make a difference… and Kyler Murray is grinning from ear to ear. He’s got a number one wide receiver. And not in two years, but in three years. That’s a number one wide receiver this year, he’ll be ready to go as soon as he steps on the field.”

After Arizona signed Murray to a 5-year, $230.5 million deal in 2022, just weeks after firing Hopkins, the team desperately needed offensive firepower. Now they have it. Harrison is expected to be so high that he is already drafted as the WR9 and ranked the same in our 4for4 rankings. Additionally, Arizona also signed free agent WR Zay Jones and rookie RB Trey Benson this offseason, in addition to Trey McBride, who will start in late 2023, and promising second-year receiver Michael Wilson.

In his analysis of Harrison’s impact immediately after the draft, Justin Edwards concluded that “Murray is back on the radar as a strong weekly QB1 option and you can make a good argument that he should slowly move toward the top 7.” In my opinion, he’s already there.

Benefits from double threat

There are few cheat codes in fantasy football more than elite dual-threat quarterbacks. The top 10 QB fantasy seasons of the last five years (including Kyler Murray’s 2020) have averaged 600 rushing yards and nearly eight rushing touchdowns. During the same period, QBs with over 600 yards and six rushing touchdowns averaged more fantasy points per season (356) than QBs with 4,000 yards and 30 passing touchdowns (345). In 2023, QB1 Josh Allen and QB2 Jalen Hurts each had over 500 rushing yards and 15 running results.

The question for Murray is whether he can reach those milestones again in 2024. Using his 2023 result as a baseline, he was on pace to have a full season of 518 yards and six touchdowns. That’s a pretty solid line, especially considering he’s not a real threat as a wide receiver and that those numbers immediately from his recovery from a torn ACL. The last time we saw a fully healthy season from the Cards QB (2020), he rushed for 819 yards and 11 touchdowns with his legs, which was the most at his position.

But the real key for Murray is his combo potential. In that 2020 QB3 overall season, Murray also threw for 3,971 yards and 26 touchdowns. That remains the most passing yards in NFL history for a player with over 800 rushing yards, and only 2015 MVP Cam Newton (35) and 2023’s Josh Allen (29) have ever scored more passing touchdowns while also posting double-digit rushing scores. And considering the Cardinals lined up an insignificant Larry Fitzgerald in his final season and Dan Arnold at tight end in 2020 behind Hopkins…it’s no exaggeration to say the 2024 roster is the best Murray has ever had.

Except Allen and Lamar Jackson, no one so much upside potential both in the air and on the ground than Kyler Murray. All it takes is a functioning receiver team and a good season, and the former first-rounder could climb back into the top tier of fantasy picks at the position.

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As of early July, Murray’s overall ADP is at QB9, between Dak Prescott and Jordan Love, somewhere near the sixth or seventh round. Considering he was QB10 in PPG last season after returning from a torn ACL in a wide receiver room led by Greg Dortch and Rondale Moore…QB9 seems pretty close to his lowest point. More importantly, Murray plays a full round after QB7 Joe Burrow and nearly two rounds after QB6 Anthony Richardson — neither of whom were the prime of life last season.

Aside from Jordan Love, who is about five picks later, Murray is the cheapest quarterback with real big-league potential. And thanks to his running ability, he also has a built-in consistency that value picks like Tua Tagovailoa or Jared Goff probably don’t have.

The conclusion

• With the arrival of Marvin Harrison Jr. in Arizona, Kyler Murray has another chance at a full season with a true number one wide receiver… and arguably the best receiver group he’s ever had.
• Murray’s per-game production with DeAndre Hopkins on the field (24.2 fantasy PPG) was undoubtedly the best in fantasy football – if Harrison can help him replicate even 80% of that performance, he will be valuable as a quarterback in the draft.
• Few quarterbacks in the league – perhaps only Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson – possess Murray’s combined potential in both the passing and running games.
• With a draft price of QB9 – barely higher than his QB10 points-per-game output following an ACL injury last year – Murray is one of the few quarterbacks outside the first four rounds who could legitimately land at the top of the position in 2024.
• If you miss the Elite Four (Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson) in the draft, aggressively target Murray in the middle rounds.