Series preview: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles

The Mariners have had as bad a two-week streak as you can imagine, and the schedule isn’t letting up anytime soon. Fresh off losing their first home series since mid-April, the M’s host one of the American League’s best teams for another major test of their mettle. Fortunately, T-Mobile Park has been a relative bastion for the ballclub; Seattle has won two-thirds of its home games, giving it the second-best home record in the AL. They’ll need every advantage they can get to turn their poor season around.

The Orioles and Yankees are locked in a bitter battle for the top spot in the AL East this year, and Baltimore enters this series in Seattle with a near tie for the lead. They’ve been helped along by a New York ballclub that’s had just as bad a two-week stretch as the Mariners, though Baltimore isn’t exactly playing its best game either. Before winning three of four games against the Rangers last weekend, the O’s had lost two straight series to the Astros and Guardians.

Like the Astros’ lineups of yore, the Orioles’ lineup is pretty relentless. Their weakest link is arguably Cedric Mullins, although he just posted a wRC+ of 140 in June after a pretty slow start to the season. The duo of Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman are as good as any one-two punch in baseball, and the four guys behind them all have wRC+s of over 120. And their revolving door of top talent keeps spinning; they recently recalled Heston Kjerstad, their number one pick from the 2020 draft, and he’s hit two home runs in six games since returning to the major leagues.

Probable pitchers

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Grayson Rodriguez struggled a bit in his major league debut last year, so much so that he was sent back to Triple-A in late May. After being recalled after the All-Star break, he posted a phenomenal 2.58 ERA and 2.76 FIP in 13 second-half starts. He wasn’t as good in his second season as he was then, but he’s firmly established himself as a frontline starter for the O’s and lived up to the high expectations placed on him as a top-tier talent. He relies quite heavily on his fastball, though he has three really excellent secondaries that each have a whiff rate of around 30%. His changeup is the best of the bunch, though he’s really worked on developing his slider into a weapon against right-handed batters.

From an earlier series preview:

In Burnes, the Orioles have a true elite player to lead their rotation this year. Since 2021, he ranks second in the majors with 16.5 fWAR, showing a valuable combination of dominance and consistency. If there’s anything to worry about, it’s his strikeout rate, which has dropped every year since his breakout in 2021; it’s gone from 35.6% this season to just 23.3% this year. His cutter, the foundation of all his success, has been a little easier to hit this year, even if the pitch’s overall expected wOBA is still a fantastic .294. His trio of secondary offerings generate the majority of the swings-and-misses in his arsenal, and he’s throwing his two breaking balls a little more often to offset the drop in his cutter’s effectiveness.

In his last game against the Mariners, Burnes allowed only one unearned run and had eleven strikeouts in six innings.

From an earlier series preview:

Dean Kremer has continued to improve year after year since his breakout year in 2022. This year, his strikeout rate has reached 25.3% while maintaining a rather low walk rate. He has replaced his mediocre changeup with an effective splitter, which accounts for part of that improvement. The biggest issue he’s struggled with is a four-seam fastball that’s far too easy to crush. Opposing batters have already hit six home runs off the pitch, and he has a whopping .770 expected SLG. He has good carry on the pitch and places it in areas that would normally bring in swings-and-misses, but when he misses his spot at the top of the zone, batters usually take advantage.

Kremer is currently on the injured list with a triceps injury and has already made three rehab appearances in Triple-A. The O’s have not yet announced their starter for Thursday’s game, but it’s quite possible Kremer will be activated for that start. The alternative would be to use Albert Suárez with the usual rest due to the off day on Monday.

The big picture:

The Astros continue to climb the standings, taking their record above .500 for the first time this season with a series win over the Mets last weekend. They started a four-game series against the Blue Jays yesterday and won in Toronto on Canada Day. On the other end of the spectrum, the Rangers continue to struggle. Last week they lost six straight games before ending that losing streak with a win on Sunday Night Baseball. They are just one game away from being closer to the A’s in the standings than a playoff spot. They will host the Padres for three games this week.