Chris Tanev is a potentially smart bet for the Maple Leafs

Chris Tanev will be 40 when his new contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs expires in 2030. But that’s not really the point.

The Leafs do not expect Tanev to play in the sixth year of his new $27 million contract.

The six-year term is all about flexibility for the Leafs.

Simply put, more years — six instead of, say, four — meant a slightly lower salary cap for Tanev, and that means GM Brad Treliving has a few more dollars to play with now and in the future. Tanev’s $4.5 million salary cap will be just over five percent of the salary cap next season.

This percentage will only decrease as the cap continues to rise (and Tanev gets older).

The extra years (and the extra money that comes with them) certainly helped keep Tanev from signing elsewhere. That, and the chance to play at home, is what the East York native, who is expecting a second child soon and wasn’t actually a Leafs fan growing up, brought with him. (Tanev was a fan of the Detroit Red Wings, who were one of the best teams in the NHL at the time.)

“I wouldn’t say it was inevitable,” Tanev said. “My agent and (Brad) and Brandon (Pridham) worked hard the last day and kind of figured out how we could make this work.”

It could be a smart move for the Leafs – provided Treliving spends the savings wisely and Tanev continues to do typical Tanev things for a little while longer.

GO DEEPER

NHL contract grades: Chris Tanev is worth the risk of a long-term contract for the Maple Leafs

That’s one of the keys to making this bet a success for the Leafs: They need to use the money they saved on Tanev wisely to build the rest of the roster. (Spending too much money on 32-year-old Oliver Ekman-Larsson was not a good start.)

The other and most important part of this bet obviously revolves around Tanev and how long he will continue to be one of the best tacklers and penalty killers as he approaches the age of 30.

Treliving believes in him strongly and has now signed Tanev’s last two contracts, this one and a four-year deal with the Calgary Flames in 2020.

“He’s just a top-notch defensive player,” Treliving said shortly after acquiring the rights to Tanev on Saturday. “We talk about offensive players recognizing things early and recognizing plays early. He does the same thing, but on the defensive side of the puck.”

The Leafs GM tried to sign Tanev last season and believes he is the best available defenseman on the free agent market.

Tanev performed convincingly in every respect last season, including in the playoffs.

Despite Tanev checking the elite of the elite Golden Knights, Avalanche and Oilers and going down in his own zone (25% faceoff rate in the offensive zone), his Dallas Stars team still outscored their opponents 13-10 when he was on the ice at five-on-five.

The expected number of goals was a solid 55 percent, practically identical to the actual number of goals.

We’ve seen plenty of defensemen play their best in what are thought to be their final years – including recently Ryan McDonagh, Kris Letang, Ian Cole, Brent Burns and Drew Doughty. All are older than Tanev, who turns 35 in December.

In his home country, Mark Giordano was still a very capable defender until he was 38 years old. Not quite at Norris Trophy level, but still effective in and around a top-4 position.

Of course, it was at the very end of the 2022-23 season, his first with the Leafs following a mid-season trade from the Kraken, that Giordano suddenly became nearly unplayable in the postseason.

Mind you, TJ Brodie was one of the toughest defenders in the league two seasons ago, and he will practically not play at all in the 2024 playoffs.

Brodie is a little younger than Tanev. Brodie’s skating started to deteriorate, and that’s what weakens most older players and knocks them out of the league. It can happen suddenly. The ground (er, the ice?) just gives way.

Tanev is bigger and stronger than Brodie (and Giordano), but how long will he be able to skate this well? The longer the better for the Leafs.

The other fear for a player in Tanev’s age group and with his style of play: injuries.

Tanev is considered an injury-plagued player because of his time in Vancouver, but he was mostly healthy in the four seasons that followed, playing 75 games last season.

However, with age comes an increased risk of injury, especially for a player like Tanev, who puts his body (even his face!) on the line when defending.

Can Tanev stay reasonably healthy for the foreseeable future? Can he stay healthy for four rounds of the playoffs – when he’s 35, 36, 37, etc. – if the Leafs one day achieve their goal of going on a long run?

He should fit seamlessly with the Leafs until these issues come to light, because eventually they will. It’s just a matter of time.

Tanev will likely fill the exact roles Brodie once did with the Leafs: first pair with Morgan Rielly and first penalty kill with whoever. Tanev is perhaps the best version of the type of defenseman who fits well with Rielly.

The two once played together for Team Canada at the World Championships and have already discussed a possible collaboration. Their contracts with the Leafs expire at the same time.

“I think it could definitely be a good fit,” Tanev said of a partnership with Rielly.

Don’t underestimate the penalty-killing boost the Leafs get with Tanev. This team used Brodie and Giordano together as the No. 1 PK pair for the first half of last season. Both were completely off the roster come playoff time.

Problems playing shorthanded were one reason why the Leafs lost three of the first four games of their first-round series against the Boston Bruins.

Whether it’s a penalty kill, even strength or defending a late lead, Tanev will be blocking many, many shots for the Leafs. Only three players have blocked more shots than Tanev over the last four seasons.

The Leafs have been missing a guy like Tanev, an elite defenseman, since Jake Muzzin’s career was stalled by injuries. The Leafs must hope they can give Tanev at least three, and if they’re lucky, four, good, healthy years.

How can this deal go wrong? Tanev will get old quickly, around the first or second year of the contract, and the Leafs will waste valuable cap dollars (reduced cap dollars, but still cap dollars) on someone who can’t compete in the challenging top-four minutes.

Maybe in that case they’ll let the contract go. Put him on the LTIR somehow. But it would have been a wasted attempt at a time when this team desperately needs to shore up its defense.

The Leafs have to expect it to work, at least in the short term. Because that’s the point: They didn’t have to give Tanev a chance at this stage of his career. They could have gone for someone younger, someone who is inevitably more expensive but carries less age-related risk (like Matt Roy or Brady Skjei, for example).

Given the cost of such players and Tanev’s fitness, I have nothing against the bet.

But it’s a bet.

(Top photo: Sam Hodde/Getty Images)

Statistics and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Cap Friendly