Russian-Ukrainian war, day 859: Ukraine faces insolvency, German Foreign Minister describes support for Ukraine as an investment in European security

Exclusive

Lessons from Aceh: How Ukraine can avoid reconstruction pitfallsExperts who worked on Indonesia’s post-tsunami reconstruction say Ukraine can learn from past disasters in its massive reconstruction efforts. They stress the importance of human control in data management and warn against over-planning, which could delay important projects.

Military

Front report: Ukraine attacks Russian positions to prepare for upcoming offensive. Ukrainian forces continue their bold attacks on Russian forces positions in and around Hlyboke with the aim of realigning the front line in preparation for future operations in the area.

ISW: Putin’s war plan is based on slow, steady territorial gainsA new report from the Institute for the Study of War suggests that Vladimir Putin’s strategy in Ukraine is based on slow but steady territorial gains, potentially prolonging the war indefinitely.

Away 01 July 2024the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian armed forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Staff: 543810 (+1110)
• Tanks: 8099 (+19)
• APV: 15550 (+26)
• Artillery systems: 14599 (+66)
• MLRS: 1111 (+1)
• Air defence systems: 874 (+1)
• Airplanes: 360
• Helicopters: 326
• UAVs: 11620 (+36)
• Cruise missiles: 2333 (+2)
• Warships/Boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 19713 (+70)

Intelligence and technology

Politico: Ukraine’s ‘people’s satellite’ wreaks havoc on Russian targetsAccording to Ukrainian officials, the crowdfunded spy satellite has enabled Ukraine to destroy thousands of Russian military targets.

British intelligence: Ukraine has launched a counterattack in Klishchiivka, while Russia is concentrating on Avdiivka-PokrovskAccording to British intelligence, Ukraine is achieving tactical successes in Klishchiivka, while the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector is likely to remain the Russians’ main focus.

International

Selenskyj resumes “high-level contacts” with Gambia after a 20-year break and thanks for the support of the peace summit. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that in a recent phone call with Gambian President Adama Barrow they discussed cooperation in restoring peace and food security, and he welcomed Gambian students to educational programs in Ukraine’s safe oblasts.

German Foreign Minister: Help for Ukraine is not a “charitable gesture” but an “investment” in European securityAt a conference on Germany’s national security strategy, Annalena Baerbock stressed that Germany is determined to protect “every square centimeter” of Europe and highlighted that supporting Ukraine is crucial to achieving this goal.

Türkiye, Romania and Bulgaria begin mine clearance in the Black Sea to support Ukrainian grain exportsTurkey, Romania and Bulgaria have launched a joint mine-sweeping operation in the Black Sea, taking an important step towards ensuring the security of Ukrainian grain exports.

Ukraine informed the European Commission that Poland had stopped the entry of Ukrainian trucksThe Ukrainian side has turned to both the European Commission and the Polish Ministry of Infrastructure regarding the situation. The Polish colleagues assured that they are trying to resolve the problem.

Humanitarian and social impacts

Russia illegally detains over 14,000 Ukrainian citizens – OmbudsmanUkrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said efforts to return them had proved extremely difficult.

Russia attacks Dnipro with ballistic missiles, 7 injured, including a teenagerThe Nikopol district was also attacked with drones and artillery. In previous attacks on Dnipro, one man was killed and 13 injured.

Bulgarian Orthodox Church elects Kremlin-friendly Metropolitan Daniil as new Patriarch In 2023, newly elected Bulgarian Patriarch Daniil expressed his support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, drawing criticism from some clergy.

Play “Caligula” about tyranny represents Ukraine at the French festival of performing arts in Avignon. The Ukrainian production of “Caligula”, based on French writer Albert Camus’ interpretation of the Roman emperor, addresses issues of tyranny, freedom, dignity and the consequences of unlimited power and is in line with Ukraine’s ongoing struggle for independence, according to Ukrainian director Ivan Uryvskyi.

Political and legal developments

Ukrainian security forces arrest conspirators planning to overthrow Ukrainian government The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has detained several people who were planning to occupy the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) in Kyiv in order to overthrow the current military-political leadership of Ukraine.

Selenskyj: Negotiations with Russia are only possible with mediatorsUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also stressed in a recent interview that high technology and long-range weapons are needed to ward off Russian aggression.

The Economist: Ukraine faces default as debt freeze expires in AugustDespite significant military aid and earmarked funds from allies, only a fraction of the aid is disbursed as direct financial support to the Ukrainian government.

New developments

Chairman of the Munich Security Conference: Only NATO membership will bring long-term peace to UkraineThe former German UN ambassador and current chairman of the Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, calls for maximum toughness towards Russia.

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