The NHL’s best and worst free agency deals: Star winger in Florida, Boston’s big bets

A billion dollars later, the first day of the annual free agent frenzy has come to an end. The NHL’s wildest day of the year did not disappoint, with over 100 players signed. Now it’s time to pick out the best and worst players.

Based on projected value and overall sentiment of the deal, here are the five best and five worst free agent contracts signed today.

Preferably

Star winger in Florida

Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers

Contract: USD 8.625 million x eight years
Added value: USD 3.0 million per year

Jake Guentzel, Tampa Bay Lightning

Contract: USD 9.0 million x seven years
Added value: USD 1.2 million per year

If you’ve been following the trend over the years, it shouldn’t surprise you that the two best deals of the day belong to elite players. This class of talent is generally underpaid, and that’s no different for the two newest members of this group: Sam Reinhart and Jake Guentzel. Florida State did very well here, coming in well below each player’s projected value.

For Reinhart, the Panthers didn’t have to pay a penny more than he was worth last season. That’s a big deal considering his 57 goals and fourth-place finish for the Selke Trophy. That should have justified a massive increase from his previous value of $8.5 million. Instead, the Panthers signed a player worth $11.5 million for $8.6 million. That’s got to be nice!

As for Guentzel, while the Lightning were relentless in their pursuit of him, there’s no doubt they’re a better team because of it. Guentzel isn’t just a goal scorer. He’s also an excellent playmaker and one of the best wingers in the league. If you line him up with Nikita Kucherov, he could actually score 50 goals while dominating five-on-five. A $9 million deal may seem like a lot, but Guentzel should have no problem delivering on that.

Smart teams do smart things and this is another example of the Sunshine State making that happen.

GO DEEPER

NHL contract grades: Jake Guentzel is a good fit for Lightning and a good value

Matt Duchene, Dallas Stars

Contract: USD 3.0 million x one year
Added value: USD 3.3 million per year

The best free agent deal of last year brought in exactly the same thing: $3 million for one year. Matt Duchene should be able to deliver significantly more, making this deal a bargain as well.

Duchene proved last season that he still has plenty of playing time left – he just needed to be positioned better to succeed. The Stars’ center line, flanked by two top-notch wingers, was the perfect situation for his skills and that should be the case again next season.

In a thin center field where Sean Monahan could demand $5.5 million, Duchene is a steal at just $3 million. He’s better than Monahan and worth twice as much as his new contract.

Anthony Duclair, New York Islanders

Contract: USD 3.5 million x four years
Added value: USD 1.6 million per year

No, hell has not frozen over… I’m actually here to praise something the islanders did.

This team needed speed and points in the top six and that’s something Duclair should provide in abundance. We saw in his time in San Jose that he’s not a driver himself, but his work with the Lightning showed he can still be a damn good complementary player. He meshed perfectly with Nikita Kucherov on the front line and while it’s not fair to expect him to score 72 points with the Islanders, a 50-point season seems extremely doable. If he meshes with Mathew Barzal, he might even manage 60 – a pace he had in his first two seasons with the Panthers.

The price for a second-line winger is usually around $5 million. Duclair is worth about that, but is trading like a third-line winger at $3.5 million. That’s a decent deal for the Islanders’ front office.

Sean Walker, Carolina Hurricanes

Contract: $3.6 million x five years
Added value: USD 1.0 million per year

Big surprise: The numbers are similar to the Hurricanes. While new GM Eric Tulsky joked that the team wouldn’t be run by ChatGPT, his first offseason definitely had that vibe. Shayne Gostisbehere’s contract could fit just as well here, but we’re going with Sean Walker, who has the ability to play a little higher up the lineup and provide more value at five-on-five.

Walker had a strong renaissance season last year that put him back in the spotlight as a legitimate top-four option. He’s a great puck mover, something Carolina values ​​highly, and he has a solid price tag at just $3.6 million. While the Hurricanes gave him a long deal, it was worth getting such a low salary differential – one that’s easy to get over if he’s down from last season.

Viktor Arvidsson, Edmonton Oilers

Contract: USD 4.0 million x two years
Added value: USD 1.0 million per year

In terms of fit and price, there were few better deals today than Viktor Arvidsson for the Oilers. One of the key missing pieces for Edmonton’s playoff run was a true top-six forward who can play with Leon Draisaitl, one who can drive the game at five-on-five. Arvidsson is just that, a shot-happy winger who doesn’t need power-play time to provide above-average value.

The fit itself is great, but it also helps that the price and term are both reasonable. A $4 million cap hit is below his fair value and two years is perfect considering the team’s other upcoming contract considerations.

Arvidsson comes with some injury risk, but he is worth the reward.

Hardly any deal was better on day one than the Oilers’ signing of striker Viktor Arvidsson for two years and $4 million. (Yannick Peterhans / USA Today)

Worst

Boston’s big bets

Elias Lindholm, Boston Bruins

Contract: $7.75 million x seven years
Added value: -$2.4 million per year

Nikita Zadorov, Boston Bruins

Contract: USD 5.0 ​​million x six years
Added value: -3.1 million USD per year

I have a lot of time for Lindholm and Zadorov as players, but these contracts seem extremely risky to me.

Lindholm was a Selke finalist in 2021-22 and if the Bruins got that guy, this deal would be a no-brainer. His play over the past two seasons has left a lot to be desired and his recent performance has been particularly disastrous. Maybe he can be saved by playing with a superstar again, but should a team really pay nearly $8 million for seven years to a guy who is obviously not the one calling the shots? Probably not. At 29, a five-year term would have been fine, while a cap hit closer to $6 million would have been more acceptable. The Bruins capitulated on both.

With Zadorov, we knew from the start that the final contract would be too much and too long, and that’s exactly what happened. Under the right circumstances, he might have untapped potential as a top-4 defenseman (he’s surprisingly good with the puck and plays well with talented defensemen), but he hasn’t proven nearly enough to justify such a big deal.

The two are a good fit, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if both players found a way to honor these deals…at least in the beginning. But neither deal seems to age well, and both seem exorbitant from the start.

Chandler Stephenson, Seattle Kraken

Contract: USD 6.25 million x seven years
Added value: -$3.2 million per year

I have no idea what possessed the Kraken to sign the 30-year-old Stephenson for seven years or pay him $6.25 million per season — let alone both. That’s an immediate burden that’s difficult to absorb.

There are many red flags with Stephenson, but the main one is that Mark Stone isn’t playing in Seattle. Even if he was, it’s hard to imagine Stephenson earning that price in his 30s. He’s a scorer who has nothing left to offer and has lost something. Since his biggest strength is speed, this deal doesn’t look good on day one, let alone seven years. When you look at the entire term, Stephenson may not even be worth half of what he’s getting.

Joel Edmundson, Los Angeles Kings

Contract: USD 3.8 million x four years
Added value: -$2.9 million per year

In 2019, that may have been a good deal. But in 2024, it seems completely unjustified.

Edmundson was OK last year and had a solid comeback season after struggling with injuries for a while – but OK just means he looked more like a third-line player than a completely unhittable player. In a four-year season, the Kings could see that version of Edmundson sooner rather than later. The 31-year-old is unlikely to age well and already doesn’t look like the No. 4/5 he’s being paid to be.

Calling him No. 6 seems generous, and it only gets worse from there. When you see a similar player like Jani Hakanpaa getting $1.5 million on a two-year deal, Edmundson’s contract seems even more puzzling.

Matt Dumba, Dallas Stars

Contract: $3.75 million x two years
Added value: -$2.6 million per year

There was a time when Matt Dumba was a really passable top-four defenseman, but those days are over. His performance in Arizona left a lot to be desired, and those who hoped he could bounce back on a better team should know that he was somehow even worse with the Lightning.

There’s a chance Dumba could come back in a minor role on a strong Stars team, but expecting him to be their No. 4 is asking way too much. He doesn’t offer much in either respect, making this a very expensive rebuild project. Best case scenario, Dumba honors his contract. Worst case scenario, the Stars just spent nearly $4 million on a backup player.

Yakov Trenin, Minnesota Wild

Contract: USD 3.5 million x four years
Added value: -$1.2 million per year

It’s perfectly fine that the Wild signed a winger who relies primarily on defense. Trenin is a real asset to the Wild’s bottom six and there’s no doubt he’ll be a useful player on that front.

Still, that’s not an asset Minnesota should pay top dollar for or get a contract extension for. Trenin is nice, but was four years necessary? Giving that up and paying him $3.75 million per season is way too much for a forward with limited offensive potential.

(Top photos of Jake Guentzel and Elias Lindholm: Jared C. Tilton and Rich Gagnon / Getty Images)