HURRICANE CENTER: Beryl, Chris and new system in the Atlantic and Florida have been lucky so far

Beryl reaches land but is likely to be classified as Category 4… New system has good development prospects…

BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com

BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2024 MetroDesk Media, LLC) — The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring three systems in the Atlantic and Gulf, a rarity for early July. While Chris makes landfall near Mexico, it’s Beryl and what’s behind it that continue to attract attention. Beryl is expected to continue its westward path as a Category 4 storm, and the system behind it now has a very good chance of developing into a named system.

This is the Monday afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center:

For the North Atlantic … Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing warnings for Hurricane Beryl, which is located near the Leeward Islands, and has issued the final warning for the remnants of Chris, which are located inland over eastern Mexico.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96): Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a low pressure system over 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear to be only moderately conducive to further development of this system, and a tropical depression may form by the middle of this week as it moves westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. Interested parties in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.

• Probability of occurrence within 48 hours: low: 20 percent. * Probability of occurrence within 7 days: medium: 50 percent.

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 5:00 PM AST Monday, July 1, 2024

Beryl has shown a very impressive satellite image this afternoon. The well-defined, symmetrical eye is surrounded by a ring of infrared cloud tops colder than -70°C. The hurricane’s central pressure fell throughout the day while hurricane hunters studied the storm. The last aircraft flyover showed the central pressure had fallen to about 946 mb. The latest objective (ADT/AiDT) and subjective (TAFB/SAB) satellite intensity estimates still support an intensity between 125 and 130 kt, which is between the previously reduced flight-level winds and the aircraft SFMR retrievals. Therefore, Beryl’s initial intensity for this warning is maintained at 130 kt.

The hurricane continues to move rapidly west-northwestward (290/18 knots) while being guided by a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean. Rapid west-northwest to westward motion is expected over the next few days, bringing the hurricane’s center over the central and northwestern Caribbean. Recent track guidance has shifted somewhat northward this cycle, with some global models, including GFS and ECMWF, indicating an approach to Hispaniola and Jamaica by mid-week. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted in this direction, although it is still slightly south of the TVCA and HCCA aids. The official forecast still shows Beryl entering the southwestern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on day 5, but track uncertainty is greater as the ensemble becomes more spread out during this period.

NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to re-survey Beryl this evening. While some intensity fluctuations are possible in the short term, the official NHC forecast shows little change in intensity for tonight. Mid-level westerly wind shear is still forecast to increase through midweek, which should result in some weakening as Beryl moves across the central and northwestern Caribbean. However, Beryl is expected to remain a hurricane as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC’s latest intensity forecast remains close to consensus guidance from several models. Later in the forecast period, there is again increased uncertainty regarding the extent of land interaction and the cyclone’s vertical depth once it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the southwestern Gulf.

Key news:

1. Tropical storm-force winds, dangerous waves and heavy rainfall are expected to continue into this evening as the core of Beryl retreats from the southern Leeward Islands.
2. Beryl is forecast to remain a strong hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean later this week. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the southern coast of Hispaniola. Hurricane conditions are possible in Jamaica on Wednesday, where a hurricane warning has been issued.
3. Stakeholders in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, the rest of the northwestern Caribbean, and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor Beryl’s progress. Additional watches and warnings will likely be necessary over the next day or two.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAXIMUM WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 13.2N 63.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 15,4N 69,7W 125KT 145MPH
36H 03/0600Z 16.3N 73.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 17,1N 77,2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 17,9N 80,8W 85KT 100MPH
72H 04/1800Z 18.3N 84.0W 80KT 90MPH
96H 05/1800Z 19,5N 90,0W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
120H 06/1800Z 21.0N 94.0W 55 KT 65 MPH…OVER WATER