NHL contract grades: Chris Tanev is worth the risk of a long-term contract for the Maple Leafs

The contract

The Toronto Maple Leafs sign defenseman Chris Tanev for six years with an average annual value of $4.5 million.

Chris Tanev is still one of the best defenders in the league. He’s a force to be reckoned with, and he showed that in last year’s playoffs when he held Jack Eichel and Nathan MacKinnon at bay in back-to-back series.

Tanev is a warrior and Exactly exactly what the Maple Leafs needed in their defense, and he will likely be the best partner Morgan Rielly has ever had. Additionally, his excellent puck skills make him a great asset to the team’s offensive-minded forwards. He gets the puck out, he gets it out often, and he often gets it out in a controlled way. At a price of $4.5 million, Leafs fans should be excited.

At least for the moment.

Six years is a long time for any free agent. Six years is a very long time for a soon-to-be 35-year-old defenseman. That deadline is probably why Tanev’s price has dropped (for now) to an acceptable $4.5 million. But time can strike at any time and turn this contract into an impending disaster.

That will probably happen in the second half of the contract. Tanev should still be worth more than his asking price in the first two years, maybe even the third. After that, when he is 37, things get tricky.

It’s more than possible that it won’t even come to that. The existence of the LTIR framework could mean that the worst parts of this deal will evaporate. That makes it a bargain after four years and a fair value after five. It’s the sixth year that Tanev’s entire deal will enter the “negative value” range, but if you think that year will never happen, then this deal is nothing to worry about.

The problem with combative defenders, however, is that an LTIR extension is not necessarily guaranteed. While Tanev does have an injury history, he also has a “playing through injury” history, which could well mean those bad years don’t go away after all. There’s also the possibility that Tanev doesn’t age as expected and crashes sooner. The no-transfer clause and contract structure also likely mean an LTIR extension is the only way out.

Those are the risks that mean this deal isn’t a slam dunk. But at the very least, Tanev should fit the Leafs’ roster like a glove and bring everything the team needs for a deep playoff run. He’s worth the risk.

Contract note: B
Fit: A note

(Photo: Kavin Mistry / NHLI via Getty Images)