Why Iran is the biggest winner of the Gaza war – Firstpost

The unfolding Gaza war has made Iran the most dominant regional power in the Middle East. More than 38,000 Palestinians, including children and women, have been killed, more than 490,000 Palestinians are suffering from catastrophic food shortages, and nearly three-quarters of the Gaza Strip has become uninhabitable since the October 7 attacks. The Gaza war has clearly shown us that there is no Arab power left in the region that can challenge Israel. However, Iran is the only credible Muslim power in the region capable of speaking for the Palestinian cause.

Following the October 7 Hamas attacks on southern Israeli cities, Iran’s parliament, the Majlis, praised Hamas’s courageous actions. Supreme Leader Seyyed Ali Khamenei publicly supported Hamas militants and condemned the Zionist regime, prompting Israel to directly accuse Iran. The Biden administration’s failure to handle the Gaza war also led to speculation that Iran was providing logistical support to Hamas. However, Iran has denied any direct involvement in the attacks. At the same time, it maintains close ties with Palestinian resistance groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Axis of Resistance

The term “Axis of Resistance” refers to a geostrategic and geopolitical alliance between certain countries such as Iran, Iraq and Syria and groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon that share common goals and interests. Thus, Iran’s involvement in the Gaza war is part of the “Axis of Resistance”. Hezbollah, the Shiite armed group in Lebanon allied with Iran, has been constantly keeping Israel on its northern border under pressure through a low-intensity conflict that is mainly directed against military facilities in Israel. Israel, on the other hand, has responded, inflicting heavy losses in the region. In addition, Hezbollah has tied the cessation of hostilities with Israel to a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Recently, there has been an imminent threat of a full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel.

The Houthis in Yemen, another part of the “Axis of Resistance,” have disrupted international shipping in the Red Sea, targeting Israeli and Western vessels. They have also attacked Israeli facilities in Israel, including the port of Eilat. Pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq have launched rocket attacks on Israel, further demonstrating Iran’s extensive influence.

Iranian-Israeli conflict in the Middle East

The Iran-Israel conflict is an important aspect of the ongoing Gaza war. Iran and Israel have been waging a shadow and proxy war in the Middle East for decades. Historically, Iran and Israel enjoyed good relations during the Shah’s regime. After 1979, following the Islamic Revolution, Iran adopted a decidedly anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian stance, which made the two countries bitter regional enemies under the rule of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

In April 2024, Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, which left two Iranian generals dead, led to Iran’s retaliatory “Operation True Promise” against Israeli military facilities in Israel. This unprecedented direct attack from Iranian territory shifted the military balance. Experts such as former Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and John Mearsheimer noted that Iran closely coordinated with the American authorities in these attacks. In this limited conflict, Israel was the biggest loser and Iran the net winner.

Arab regimes and changing regional dynamics

The Arab regimes’ response to Israel’s war on Gaza has been largely ineffective. Symbolic summits under the banner of the Arab League have failed to persuade Israel to cease its attack on Gaza or to provide any significant aid to the besieged Palestinians. In fact, Arab regimes have cooperated with Israel and maintained official and unofficial relations with the State of Israel throughout the war. Early in the conflict, the Houthis’ blockade of the Red Sea waterways to international shipping prompted some Arab countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, to support Israel in establishing a land corridor through their territories to ensure supplies from across the Arabian Sea from ports such as the Indian port of Mumbai. During the Iran-Israel conflict, Jordan actively defended Israel by repelling incoming Iranian missiles over its territory. Saudi Arabia also reportedly provided intelligence to the United States during Iranian attacks on Israel.

Egypt, the only Arab country bordering Gaza, has done little to alleviate Palestinian suffering. Prominent Egyptians, especially in the Sinai Peninsula, who have close ties to Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, are profiting from the war by charging high fees to Palestinians fleeing through Egypt. Despite some mediation efforts between Israel and the Palestinian resistance, Egypt has largely worked with the US and like-minded Arab regimes to contain the impact of the Gaza war and done little for Gazans. A week ago, Israeli General Herzi Halevi met in Bahrain with the military chiefs of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Egypt to work out a post-war plan with them and the US commander in chief for the Middle East. According to a new report by Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics, Egyptian exports to Israel have doubled in 2024, and exports from the United Arab Emirates and Jordan have increased sharply despite the raging war. Almost all of these countries have taken tough measures against pro-Palestinian protests in their countries. Does all this mean that the Arab regimes have betrayed the Palestinian cause? While these regimes maintain a largely pro-Palestinian and somewhat anti-Israel rhetoric in public, their actions suggest the opposite.

While it is not entirely fair to claim that Arab regimes have betrayed the Palestinian cause, strategic and tactical reasons related to Iran’s growing regional influence explain why these Arab countries have cooperated with Israel or aligned themselves with the United States’ position in the conflict. In addition, Arab countries have the economic and diplomatic leverage to help end Israel’s war on Gaza. This power shift has been evident since the 2020 Abraham Accords, with most Arab countries now viewing Israel as a partner rather than an adversary.

Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Mohammad Bin Salman, has openly stated that they see Israel as a future partner. Saudi Arabia is negotiating with Israeli and American leaders to normalize relations, a process that was interrupted by the Gaza war. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan has publicly linked normalization with Israel to the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state, but the seriousness of this position remains to be seen.

Changing geopolitics in the Middle East

There seems to be a clear shift in the geopolitics of the Middle East today. The current Gaza war has given us glimpses of this power shift. Israel is firmly supported in its war against Gaza by its all-weather friend America, and also receives military and diplomatic support from its Western allies such as Germany and Britain. America’s current Middle East policy, or rather its position on the Gaza war, seems to be approved by the Arab monarchies and military regimes. On the other side, there is Iran and its “Axis of Resistance” and countries like Syria. This alliance seems to be supported from the outside by powers like Russia and China, who have recently increased their presence in the Middle East and want to see American influence in the region wane.

Iran has become the dominant regional power, comparable to Egypt under Gamal Abdel Nasser. Its influence stretches from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, a fact that is made even clearer in the ongoing Gaza war. In this conflict, almost all regional and extra-regional actors are on the losing side, with the exception of Iran.

Both authors are PhD students at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. The views expressed in the above article are personal and solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.

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