Despite the risks, the war in southern Lebanon remains an opportunity for Israel

In addition, there are important strategic issues, such as the support of the United States and the response of the international community in the event of a coordinated Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and against Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. It is not impossible that Israel will be at a disadvantage in a war on multiple fronts, faced with a multitude of enemies.
Follow Army Recognition on Google News at this link

An Israeli soldier stands in a tank amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas near the Israel-Gaza border in Israel, June 4, 2024(Image source: Amir Cohen)

It appears that Smotrich’s scenario combines latent fantasies about the borders of the Promised Land with his long-held plan to financially strangle the Palestinian Authority and provoke the collapse of its power in the West Bank (an idea that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed reservations about in statements attributed to him last week).

It is difficult to say whether the finance minister’s remarks at Sunday’s press conference in Makor Rishon reflect a short-term strategic vision or are the more cynical gesture of someone who believes that a regional Gog and Magog scenario actually serves his goals.

In Lebanon, Netanyahu and especially Defense Minister Yoav Galant recently stressed in messages that a diplomatic solution must first be sought under American mediation before a full-scale campaign against Hezbollah can be launched.

People in the region are still waiting to see whether Amos Hochstein, US President Joe Biden’s envoy, will soon launch a new series of diplomatic shuttles between Beirut and Jerusalem, while Netanyahu’s speech to the US Congress on July 24 is playing in the background.
In their contacts with the Americans, the Israelis have discussed the possibility of an offensive by their army in Lebanon, hoping that Hezbollah would come to its senses and agree to an agreement to move its troops north of the Litani River.

The Americans are skeptical: they believe that Hezbollah would respond to any escalation by the Israeli forces with an escalation of its own, and from then on the road to total war would not be far.

The government’s main problem is the expectations of the population. On October 8, the state evacuated around 60,000 residents from their homes along the border with Lebanon. So far, no date has been set for their return.

In the face of this ongoing strategic failure, criticism is growing. It comes from the people of the north, the media and the opposition. The response of government spokespeople is unconvincing.
As long as the current reality is not clarified, the temptation for the government and the army to break the deadlock with a military operation is growing, despite the obvious risks.