ISW: Putin’s war plan is based on slow, steady territorial gains

The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War reported on June 30 that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy in Ukraine is based on the belief that Russian forces can continue to advance gradually indefinitely. This approach, the ISW said, is likely to prolong the conflict and reinforce Putin’s determination to undermine Ukrainian statehood.

The report quotes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as expressing concern in a recent interview that Western fears about Russia’s stability could hinder support for a full Ukrainian victory. Zelenskyy warned that “any Russian advance strengthens Russia’s negotiating power,” which Putin could use “to bring about a ceasefire that would allow Russia to prepare for future aggression against Ukraine.”

According to the ISW report, Putin’s current military strategy emphasizes “consistent offensive operations that achieve gradual tactical successes” rather than large-scale operations aimed at rapid and significant advances.

The institute states that Putin and Russian military commanders “likely view stealthy offensive operations as a safer way to achieve success in Ukraine than larger mobile offensives.”

The report suggests that a protracted war would further Putin’s goals, as he “likely assumes that Russia will be able to hold onto any territory it conquers.”

The ISW points out that Putin “has demanded that Ukraine cede all occupied oblasts of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as the parts of these four oblasts currently controlled by Ukraine.”

The ISW stresses that Putin’s ultimate goal remains the “complete destruction of Ukrainian statehood and identity,” with territorial conquest being a means to achieve this goal.

The report warns that any negotiated ceasefire could provide Russia with an opportunity to “regroup and expand its armed forces and further mobilize its defense industry for future aggression.”

The institute concludes that neither a protracted war of attrition nor a ceasefire on Putin’s terms “would be compatible with the survival of an independent Ukrainian state or the Ukrainian people, nor are they compatible with NATO’s vital security interests.”

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