Waiting for Jordan Love’s contract extension will cost the Packers dearly

GREEN BAY, Wisconsin – How much money will Jordan Love receive in his contract extension with the Green Bay Packers?

Perhaps a more interesting question is how much money the Packers would have saved if they had given Love his contract extension 13 months earlier?

Interview with Rich EisenMike Florio of Pro Football Talk believed Love could become the first player to be worth $60 million per season.

60.

Million.

Per.

Season.

That’s an incredible sum given Love’s limited success, but that’s the way the NFL works.

In May 2023, the Packers and Love agreed to a compromise Contract extension for one year which included more money in 2023 ($14.5 million versus $2.29 million) and more total money ($22.5 million), but less guaranteed money than the fifth-year option ($20.272 million).

By trading Aaron Rodgers and moving on with Love, general manager Brian Gutekunst showed his confidence in the quarterback he planned to select in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.

He was simply not fully convinced of this belief.

And now the Packers will pay for not showing their full commitment.

This is not a criticism or imitation.

Since the positive part of Love’s resume consists of growth on the practice field and a quarter as Rodgers’ replacement in Philadelphia in 2022, there’s no way Gutekunst could have given Love a true contract extension last offseason. And actually, there was probably no reason for Love and his agents to want to sign him to a long-term deal at the time for fear of ending up significantly underpaid – which, as it turns out, would have been the case.

The compromise extension was a necessity for the Packers (to avoid the option for a fifth year if Love failed) and for Love (to at least get a reasonable salary as a starting quarterback). However, the compromise meant that the Packers could not give Love a contract extension during the season because NFL rules prohibit two extensions within a 12-month period. Certainly, a contract extension in November would have been tens of millions of dollars cheaper than it is now, but that was not an option.

Going back to May 2023, Love’s contract situation was probably unprecedented in NFL history, so let’s use Giants quarterback Daniel Jones as an admittedly flawed example.

After the 2022 NFL Draft, the Giants declined Jones’ fifth-year option. Jones was poised for a pivotal season, completing 67.2 percent of his passes in 2022 with a total of 22 touchdowns (15 passing, seven rushing) and five interceptions, earning him a four-year, $160 million contract before free agency began.

Given Love’s much poorer resume – he lost his only career start in 2021 and completed 14 of 21 passes in 2022 – Gutekunst could not have justified that kind of commitment.

If he had the Onions However, if he had tied the franchise entirely to Love at that time, he would have saved tens of millions of dollars and made Russ Ball’s salary cap management much easier.

Let’s assume Florio is right that Love could become the NFL’s first $60 million man. That’s $240 million over four years — or $80 million more than the Giants gave Jones.

Even if Love doesn’t reach $60 million per season, it stands to reason that Love should get at least a dollar more than the $275 million over five years the Jacksonville Jaguars just gave Trevor Lawrence. After a breakout 2022 with 25 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 95.2 passer rating during the regular season and a playoff win, Lawrence regressed in 2023 with 21 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and an 88.5 passer rating as the Jaguars went 9-8 and missed the playoffs.

Still, Lawrence is tied with the Bengals’ Joe Burrow for the No. 1 prospect in the league (and No. 1 all-time) at $55 million per season. He received an incredible $142 million signing bonus.

Considering what the Packers have ahead of them, it’s important to note that the Jaguars will have no trouble building around Lawrence. In fact, Lawrence’s salary cap space is easily manageable with a few extra years. According to OverTheCap.comHis salary cap is $15.0 million in 2024, $17 million in 2025, $24 million in 2026, $35 million in 2027, and $47 million in 2028 before increasing to over $70 million in 2029 and 2030. These higher salary cap numbers can be achieved through contract manipulation and a salary cap increase.

Earlier this offseason, the Detroit Lions gave Jared Goff a four-year contract extension worth $212 million — or $53 million per season. His salary cap hit, aided by an unsigned year, starts at $27.2 million in 2024 and $32.6 million in 2025 before exploding to $69.6 million in 2026, $54.6 million in 2027 and $61.6 million in 2028.

Six quarterbacks make more than $50 million per season. Love and the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott – whom Love crushed in their playoff matchup – will surely push that total to eight.

What will the final number be for Love? Who knows, but it’s abundantly clear that waiting won’t make it any cheaper.

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