Preparing for a Middle East war

Can Israel be reined in?

The current reports from the Middle East have two things in common: all parties want to avoid war, and yet everything is moving towards a war with Lebanon as its centre.

The Israeli army is preparing to expand the war to Lebanon, where it would face a heavily armed enemy very different from Hamas – with many more fighters and a huge arsenal of missiles and drones that could overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome defense facility.

But according to a CNN report, Israel could have the support of the United States in a war with Hezbollah. When senior national security officials from both countries met in late June, CNN reports, “US officials made clear … that the Biden administration would offer Israel the necessary security support … although the US would not send American ground troops in such a scenario.”

Such thinking is deeply troubling. Because while the Biden administration is determined to avoid a war between Israel and Hezbollah and is using diplomatic means to prevent one, Israel is literally calling the shots.

If the constant exchanges of fire across the Lebanese border escalate and the Israelis suffer significant losses, the US would likely step in with significantly more help. Biden, at the weakest point of his presidency, seems unable to stand in Israel’s way.

A reliable report is already saying that the Biden administration’s embargo on the supply of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel, which has drawn loud complaints from Netanyahu, is set to be lifted soon. Israel allegedly wants these bombs for possible use against Hezbollah. Whatever the case, the lifting of this minimal restraint shows that Israel is still getting what it wants from the US.

And then there are Israeli politics and Netanyahu’s ambitions. He is the ultimate political survivor, but can he overcome the latest crisis – the Israeli Supreme Court’s ruling that the government must begin recruiting ultra-religious young men for military service? Netanyahu’s government relies on the support of the ultra-religious parties and the far-right members of his cabinet. If any of these groups drop out, his leadership will be in big trouble.

Ravit Hecht writes in Haaretz: “The two pillars on which Netanyahu’s political career rests – religious Zionism and the Haredim – are in a life-and-death conflict and feel betrayed by each other.” So far, Netanyahu’s best response has been more war.

Can Iran be kept in check?

Iran also reportedly wants to avoid having to support Hezbollah in a full-scale war, despite recently warning of a “devastating war” if Israel launches a large-scale attack on Lebanon. Iran has many reasons for not wanting war: it is about to elect a new president to replace hardliner Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash; its economy has a host of problems; and if war were to break out, its nuclear facilities, which international inspectors say are being expanded, would be fair game for Israel.

The turnout of only around 40 percent of eligible voters was seen by some commentators as a reproach to the regime. It was the lowest voter turnout since the 1979 revolution.

Reformist MP Masoud Pezeshkian won the first round, but failed to secure 50 percent of the vote against hardliner former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. A runoff on July 5 is likely, with Jalili the favorite, as he can rely on another very conservative candidate who came in third.

A victory for Jalili does not bode well for Iran’s restraint in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. He is considered to be strongly anti-Western and anti-Israeli. He has long been opposed to a resumption of negotiations that could restore the 2015 nuclear agreement.

A confrontation between Jalili and Netanyahu would be devastating. Let us recall that Iran directly attacked Israel for the first time in April. Imagine if Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. Iran would have every incentive to complete its nuclear bomb program.

A ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is crucial

The key to preventing a war between Israel and Hezbollah is a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Unless the Biden administration is prepared to put serious pressure on Netanyahu’s government to agree to a permanent ceasefire and end the war with Hamas, Hezbollah will have every reason to make life very difficult for the Israel Defense Forces.

And no one knows this better than Israeli commanders, which is why they are arguing behind the scenes with Netanyahu about ending the fighting in Gaza. But he won’t, and it seems he has once again convinced Biden not to give Israel an ultimatum.

An unnamed US Defense Department official said: “We have not imposed any consequences on Israel for crossing our red lines in Gaza. That emboldens them and they know that they will not face any consequences for going into Lebanon, even though we tell them, ‘Don’t go there.'”

Biden, a State Department official said, “is pushing not to get involved (in a war), but I don’t think our statement, ‘We will support Israel,’ helps.”

Not helping is putting it mildly. US policy towards Israel amounts to a green light for a major war.