What we know this week about the longest NHS doctors’ strike

Junior doctors have begun the longest strike in the history of the British NHS – but plans for replacement could be “jeopardised” if even one or two senior doctors fall ill, NHS officials warned.

Members of the British Medical Association (BMA) began their walkout at 7am on Wednesday, marking the start of a six-day strike that may see half of the medical workforce walk out.

Winter viruses will increase pressure on the NHS and there will be a surge in the number of people seeking treatment that was put off over the Christmas period. People will still be urged to seek treatment when they need it, with emergency and urgent treatment being prioritised during the strike.

The NHS warned that the strike could lead to “the most difficult start to the year the NHS has ever experienced”.

Dr Layla McCay, director of policy at the NHS Confederation, told LBC radio: “Plans have been drawn up and people have worked very, very hard on those rotas. But the rotas are just about covered, so all it takes is one or two consultants taking sick leave – which of course is very likely given the high volume of COVID and flu cases, norovirus and other winter viruses at the moment, and some might take sick leave – then the whole plan is put at risk, which is why leaders across the NHS are so concerned that we are treading on thin ice.”

Sir Julian Hartley, chief executive of NHS Providers, said the strike would be “incredibly tough” for the NHS.

He told BBC Breakfast that the NHS was already “under enormous pressure”, adding: “That is why we are deeply concerned about the impact in the coming days.”

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When and why do junior doctors go on strike?

The strike action will take place across England and will last until 7am on Tuesday 9 January, the BMA said.

The British Doctors’ Union says its main aim is to fully restore salaries. It argues that junior doctors’ salaries have fallen sharply since 2008/2009, a problem that is being exacerbated by high inflation and the cost of living crisis, it says.

It is also calling for an agreement with the Government on a mechanism to protect junior doctors’ salaries from real-terms inflation. The BMA is also calling for reform of the Doctors’ and Dentists’ Review Body (DDRB) process so that pay increases can be “independently and fairly recommended” to improve junior doctors’ retention.

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The strikes came after weeks of failed negotiations between the union and ministers. The BMA claims the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has been “unable to put forward a credible offer to resolve the pay dispute”. Junior doctors have been offered a 3% pay rise, on top of the average 8.8% increase they received over the summer.

However, the BMA is demanding a 35% pay rise to make up for many years of consistent below-inflation pay rises. But pay is not the only issue facing medical professionals. Many complain about the increased demands on hospitals and rising numbers of departures from the NHS, leading to staff burnout.

How much do interns earn?

A junior doctor can expect a basic salary of £32,398 in the first year of training and £37,303 in the second year.

Those who then move on to specialist training, which can take up to a further nine years, can expect a salary of between £43,923 and £63,152 as they progress through the stages. Junior doctors in the capital also receive an annual London allowance of £5,000, which drops to £4,500 at higher salary levels.

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How many junior doctors are there in the UK?

According to the Nuffield Trust, there are around 75,000 full-time junior doctors in the UK. According to NHS England, these doctors make up 50% of the medical workforce.

However, staffing levels may be at risk. A BMA survey found that 40 percent of junior doctors would leave the NHS if they were offered another job, with 83 percent of respondents citing pay cuts as the reason for their departure.

Some of those on strike last year suggested that people had already gone elsewhere. One placard read: “All my friends are in Australia.” Analysis by the BMA shows that England has “a very low proportion of doctors relative to population.” It says that the average number of doctors per 1,000 inhabitants in the OECD countries of the EU is 3.7, but in England it is only 2.9. Germany, by contrast, has 4.3.