BERYL
…10pm weather forecast is out…little change…maybe a bit further north in the later part of the forecast
…Located
…This could increase impacts on Hispaniola, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. GFS brings storm directly over Jamaica.
…landing around 9:30 a.m. CDT in the Grenadines or perhaps Grenada…close call. Peak sustained winds expected to be 130-135 mph.
…Beryl is expected to strengthen slightly tomorrow, increasing speed to 225 km/h… but otherwise the intensification has subsided.
EFFECTS OF BERYL
…Grenada will have sustained winds of about 70 mph with gusts up to 80 mph. Possibly more if it ends up in the eyewall. We will be monitoring TGPY tomorrow.
…St. Vincent will experience winds of 60 mph with gusts of 65-70 mph. Winds will begin around sunrise.
…Tobago is expecting sustained winds to 50 mph, gusting to 60 mph for about 6 hours this morning. TTCP is the station there.
…Barbados will endure 50 with gusts to 60 mph. Station is TBPB.
… St. Lucia is expecting sustained winds up to 45 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. The airport is TLPC.
…Trinidad will experience winds just below tropical storm force.
…Martinique too…TFFF is the airport code. Since 1:30 p.m. there have been gusts of up to 40 miles per hour from the northeast, along with rain and thunderstorms.
AMAZING FACTS ABOUT BERYL
…East of the islands, only the second hurricane formed in June.
…Strongest Atlantic hurricane ever in June.
…It took only 42 hours to turn a depression into a major hurricane. That has happened six times in history. Always in September.
POSSIBLE TRACK FOR BERYL
…Deterministic modeling places it in the southwestern Gulf late this week into the weekend.
…Most are now in the southern United States.
…GFS ensembles concentrate on the Brownsville/Matamoros area.
…The latest Euro ensembles we have are from 12 noon this morning…that means it goes into the Houston/Lake Charles areas.
…18z European determinism only applies until Thursday.
…Does not appear to pose a threat to Alabama or the northwest coast of Florida.
CHRIS
…Tropical Storm Chris formed off the Mexican coast late tonight. It will reach the interior of the country in a few hours.
…Peak wind speed is 40 miles per hour.
…The system will quickly dissipate over the Mexican highlands.
96 liters
…Convection increases tonight, but the system remains disorganized.
…Most intensity models predict this will be a tropical storm over the Caribbean, located in the western Caribbean south of Jamaica or Cuba through Friday and Saturday.
category: ALL POSTS, Tropical
